Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving storm system will keep scattered thunderstorms
over NY and PA through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
150 PM update...

Unstable air over the western forecast area with CAPE values
approaching 1500 j/kg will continue to trigger scattered thunderstorms
through the afternoon hours. Little shear exists, so we expect
the main threat with thunderstorms to be brief downpours and
gusty winds.

A slow moving wave of low pressure will track across Southern
Ontario Tuesday. A trough associated with this cyclone will
bring an area of thunderstorms into NY and PA during the late
afternoon hours. Isolated showers or thunderstorms will pop up
ahead of the trough earlier in the day, but coverage will remain
low until the trough approaches. Again, we expect good
instability values by little in the way of shear. Temperatures
will rise to between 85 and 90.

Thunderstorms will taper off to showers Tuesday night.
Temperatures will drop into the middle 60s.

1130 AM update...

Convection triggered over the southwestern corner of Bradford
County in the last half-hour. We expect additional thunderstorms
to form after noon, but activity will be scattered. Moderate
CAPEs and low shear point toward short-lived cells with brief
downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 pm update...

Cold front pushes east of the area Wednesday morning, but broad
upper level low pressure system will remain nearly stationary
over Southern Ontario Canada, with troughing over the Northeast
U.S. Temperatures will be considerably cooler, with highs
Wednesday afternoon only in the 70s to maybe low 80s in some of
the warmer spots.

The cool upper level low will remain nearly stationary through
the period. With the upper low in our vicinity, can't rule out isolated
to scattered thunderstorms during peak heating in the
afternoon.

Wednesday night will be cool with shower and thunderstorm
activity diminishing around sunset. On Thursday, as the upper
low continues to spin in southern Canada, a weak perturbation
rotates around the base of the of the low/upper trough Thursday
afternoon and this may be enough lift enhance afternoon showers
and thunderstorms, but confidence remains low on this feature
and have kept PoPs at low chance for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 am update...
The upper low over the nrn Great Lakes will begin to move east
Thursday night and Friday but not before triggering yet another
round of afternoon showers and storms on Friday. Instability and
deep moisture will be limited, so the precip probabilities are
on the lower end of the spectrum. Temperatures on Friday will be
a few degrees warmer than Thursday with highs topping out in
the upper 70s and lower 80s. Weak upper ridging will begin late
Friday into Saturday morning ahead of the next wave, which is
forecast to be more progressive and sweep through late Saturday
into Sunday. This system will be capable of producing more
showers and storms this weekend. Another ridge of high pressure
will begin to build northward across the ern US going into the
start of next week with the hot and humid conditions likely
returning to a good portion of the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We expect mainly VFR conditions through Tuesday afternoon. The
exceptions will be late this afternoon when isolated
thunderstorms could affect the terminals, mainly west of I-81,
and early Tuesday morning, when low stratus could bring MVFR or
fuel alternate ceilings to KAVP, KBGM, and KELM.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Friday...Daily chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms with associated brief restrictions.
Best chance on Tuesday and Wednesday. Late night early morning
valley fog at KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
306 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-231915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
306 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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