Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
856 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes will swing into the area today
bringing showers followed by a cold front this evening. Behind
the front, cold air will bring some rain and snow showers to
central New York. Another low will bring more showers Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Much warmer weather will arrive for the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
850 AM Update:
The forecast remains mostly on track and very minor changes were
made. For today, removed any mention of thunder for the late
morning hours, as it looks like any isolated thunderstorms east
of I-81 will be confined to the afternoon hours. For Tuesday,
raised wind gusts a bit for the afternoon.

Previous Discussion:

Surface low tracks through central NY today bringing showers,
and with marginal instability isolated thunder is possible over
the eastern zones. Severe storms are not expected but the cold
pool aloft could result in very small hail from any convective
cells with vertical extent.

Diffuse cold front sweeps through in the afternoon hours
followed by strong cold air advection. Instability showers in
the afternoon and even a weak response form the lake after dark
will keep the showers going, mixed with snow after 00Z.

Brief break then showers move in again late Tuesday, especially
over the NY zones as a closed upper low swings through northern
NY into New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering showers taper off Tuesday evening as high pressure builds
in. With clearing skies, light winds, and a cold airmass in place,
temperatures will once again fall back into the upper 20s Tuesday
night. However, temperatures should quickly reach up into the 50s
Wednesday afternoon thanks to sunny skies and increasing
thicknesses. High clouds will start to work back in Wednesday night
as the ridge shifts eastward. Temperatures stay comparatively
warmer Wednesday night, with lows generally in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remainder of the forecast period is still looking to feature a
warming trend with unsettled weather as multiple systems moving
through bring in rounds of showers and even some thunder.

A trough slowly moves into the upper Midwest Thursday, with a warm
front pushing into our area and touching off showers after daybreak.
Some thunder will not be ruled out especially during the afternoon
hours of Thursday and Friday, with our area in the warm sector as
the front stalls out across north-central NY. A weak cold front
finally passes through Friday evening, with a brief period of
ridging allowing for mainly dry weather into early Saturday. However,
ridging quickly shifts eastward during the daytime hours and
southwesterly return flow will help to funnel some Gulf moisture
into the area. This could touch off some showers Saturday through
Saturday night, with rain chances continuing through Sunday as a
trough deepens across the Midwest. As for temperatures, we're
looking at highs starting in the 50s and 60s for Thursday followed
up by 70s through the end of the period. Overnight lows hover in the
upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will spread showers and MVFR ceilings over the
area later today. Spotty MVFR visibility is also possible with
the showers. Conditions will improve late in the day and
overnight as drier air filters in. VFR conditions will prevail
through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly VFR, but lake effect snow showers may
bring brief intermittent restrictions to SYR-KITH-KBGM-KRME.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Restrictions possible in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday
     for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday
     for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...BJG/DGM
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...DGM/MDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-120700-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
300 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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