Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
311 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will move across the region this afternoon and tonight
bringing passing showers and a chance for thunderstorms,
especially from the Twin Tiers southward, where a few storms
could be severe. Weak high pressure builds back in on Thursday
with mainly dry weather, but other passing disturbances Friday
and Saturday will result in chances of showers and thunder.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
240 PM Update...

Slight destabilization of the boundary layer was occurring this
afternoon in response to pockets of solar heating mainly along
and west of the Central Southern Tier. Mid level lapse rates are
not substantial, and a solid trigger is lacking at the surface
or in satellite views aloft. The latest HRRR still insists on
redevelopment of showers and storms developing and moving from
the lower Finger Lakes/Southern Tier into NEPA between about 20Z
and 00Z. We suspect this will occur to some degree and have
left scattered/chance shower and thunderstorm activity into the
evening. The risk of severe storms looks to be waning fast as
favorable parameters consolidate over central and eastern PA.

Beyond sunset...weak high pressure with dry air will build
across the region later tonight through most of Thursday. Models
suggest a minor wave curling through the OH Valley and riding
along a stationary front over PA from Thursday afternoon
through the evening. Guidance remains consistent with much of
the precipitation chances remaining to our south, but there's
still enough evidence for scattered shower, or thunderstorm activity
over NEPA tomorrow afternoon and night. SPC positions marginal
risk of severe along our southernmost border counties...but no
major concern from us at this time.

Seasonable temperatures expected for the next 36 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A cold frontal boundary will move through the area Friday night with
another boundary to our south. These boundaries coupled with enough
moisture and instability should be enough to spark a few showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day. Shear looks very week for any
organized activity. Highs should still get well into the 80's on
Friday.

Friday night looks warm and a bit muggy still being ahead of the
cold front with lows only falling into the mid 60's on average.
Still with the warm moist air in place the threat for a few showers
and thunderstorms continues.

By Saturday, the cold frontal boundary should east of the area. As
typical for northwest flow events one concern is that blended model
guidance looks to quick clearing out the skies with the potential
for a little additional moisture on the backside of the departing
low pressure system. A cooler airmass slowly builds into the region
lowering highs down to around 80. High pressure builds into the
region Saturday night with a favorable setup for radiational cooling
light winds and clear skies. As a result, lows fall into the low and
mid 50's. With a slightly tighter pressure gradient winds pick up to
around 10 mph Saturday from the northwest but winds Friday look even
weaker.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The high pressure system builds into the region early next week and
deflects Cristobal a named system in the southern Gulf toward the
western Gulf coast states while also keeping the next cold front
well west of the region. While Sunday starts off  cooler with highs
around 70 the flow eventually becomes southerly with highs in the
80's by mid-week. Low temperatures will rise a few degrees each
night from the cold 40's Saturday night well into the 50's by
Tuesday night. Right now modeling is keying on interaction between a
frontal boundary and what's left of Cristobal around Wednesday well
northwest of our region. Still a considerable amount of ensemble
spread here but enough members indicate a few showers and
thunderstorms could move into the area by Wednesday next week
ahead of that front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated to scattered convection still possible through 00Z, but
very low confidence as to impact on terminal operations thus
left it out of TAFs and will monitor for amendments. Otherwise,
generally VFR with some lingering MVFR still to burn off by 21Z.
After 00Z VFR is likely with the exception of a fog chance at
KELM and MVFR restricted ceilings toward morning, mainly at KRME
and KBGM.

Winds NW 10G20 kts until 00Z, then variable under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Friday night...Chance of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions as front passes.

Saturday...Small chance of showers/restrictions, otherwise VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday...Flight restrictions unlikely.

Monday...Flight restrictions unlikely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JAB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
249 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-041900-
Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
249 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Some thunderstorms are still possible into this evening and one, or
two storms could become severe with high winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-041900-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-
249 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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