Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1200 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the area with showers and
occasional thunder this morning. Then, a severe weather
outbreak is probable this afternoon to early evening as a cold
front drops through the region. Additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected Friday into Saturday which may bring
heavy rain to parts of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM Update...

The surface warm front is lagging a bit to the south/west of
where model guidance had it by late morning. The surface front
appears to be draped NW to SE along a line from near Syracuse to
Cazenovia and Cooperstown (as opposed to earlier thoughts that
it would be up north of the Mohawk Valley. Also, there is more
cloud cover lingering along and northeast of this boundary....but
even broken clouds back to the south/west of the front. There is
a decent amount of clearing from Broome County west across the
southern tier, the western Finger Lakes and all of NE PA. Where
partial clearing has occurred temperatures are quickly rising,
as expected, into the upper 70s to mid-80s as of 11 AM and sfc
dew points are in the low 70s. Across the NE portion of the CWA
temperatures are stuck in the 60s still. The front and partial
clearing may still nudge off to the NE a few more miles over the
next several hours; however a line of storms along the cold
frontal boundary is already forming along the south shore of
Lake Ontario. This line of storms will slowly press off to the
south-southeast through the day, while individual storms race
off to the southeast around 50 mph. There could very well be
training of these storms, which may produce localized torrential
downpours and isolated flash flooding...PWATs are around 1.8
inches.

The main story continues to the potential for severe
thunderstorms from around noon to 9 PM today. SPC continues to
have much of our forecast areas under an enhanced risk for
severe storms. Current meso analysis shows that in the warm
sector bulk effective shear is between 50-60 kts and low level
0-1 km shear is high around 30 kts. MLCAPE is quickly rising
between 500-1500 J/Kg along and SW of the front...and these
values should still rise a bit into the early afternoon. All
indices remain favorable for severe storms capable of producing
large hail and destructive winds, along with a few tornadoes.
The most favorable corridor for this severe weather looks to
setup (based on current data) from the western Finger Lakes
southeastward across CNY, the southern tier and right into the
western Catskills....or along a corridor from near Penn Yan to
Ithaca to Cortland, Binghamton, Norwich, Oneonta and Delhi. The
storms may eventually drift further south into the souther
Catskills and NE PA after about 4-5 PM.

410 AM Update...
**Severe Weather Outbreak Anticipated This Afternoon-Evening**

Little has changed with expectations for severe weather today.
This may be a higher end event, with potential for damaging
winds, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. The Storm
Prediction Center maintains an enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms for the vast majority of our area, though
potential will a bit lower along and north of the New York
Thruway since there will be less heating; the warm sector of the
system will not quite reach there. The biggest uncertainties
today, will be how far north the severe weather potential will
actually extend because of warm frontal placement, as well as
whether the severe storms will reach all the way through the
Wyoming Valley in PA early this evening or become more scattered
first. For most of the area, though, a severe weather outbreak
indeed appears probable.

The warm front of the incoming system, with strong west-
northwest flow aloft, as expected is carrying showers and
embedded thunder through the region. One cluster is exiting
Bradford County PA en route the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton metro and
then Poconos; frequent lightning with that but since it is
elevated, strong winds are not expected. A larger cluster can be
found crossing from Ontario into North Central NY; it will move
over the greater Syracuse-Utica metros to the I-88 corridor-
Western Catskills this morning, perhaps with locally heavy
rainfall since portions of it are training. However, the main
event will still be later today.

The warm front will hang up as the primary wave of low pressure
zips through the region by midday. This will then drop the
boundary south as a cold front this afternoon-early evening;
well-timed to harness significant energy from diurnal heating
in the low levels as well as the beginning of cooling aloft. New
storms are anticipated to start firing near the New York
Thruway just after noon, which will then strengthen while
working southward through Finger Lakes-Upper Susquehanna areas
early-mid afternoon, down to the Twin Tiers-Catskills mid-late
afternoon, and finally the rest of Northeast PA late afternoon-
early evening though with some uncertainty for how solid the
coverage will be by then.

Models have not changed much in depicting a solid 45-55 knots
of shear in the 2-6 km layer; and some directional shear as well
in the lowest 1-2 km. This along with top-heavy Convective
Available Potential Energy (CAPE) of 1500-2500 J/kg, points to
supercell storms and thus all modes of potential severe weather.
Some Add 0-1km helicity values reaching 150-250 m2/s2 and there
is potential for a few tornadoes as well. It appears probable
there will be at least some damage and/or power outages within
our area; in addition to possible isolated tornadoes, bowing
line segments as cells interact may yield microbursts/gusts of
60-70 mph or so. The top-heavy nature of the CAPE, in the hail
growth zone, and lifted indices -3 to -7, also suggests
explosive updrafts capable of large hail of 1-2 inches or
higher. Finally, any supercells could contain torrential rain
with quick street/urban flooding.

Placement and timing of the front will allow a big temperature
contrast across our area. It will be humid areawide, but highs
will range from only 70s northeast to 80s for most, and even
near 90 at lower elevations of Northeast Pennsylvania. Dewpoints
of upper 60s-near 70 will push heat index values into the upper
80s-mid 90s for the warmer locations. Tonight, cool air
advection behind the convection will dip temperatures into the
upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

1200 PM Update...

Not much change in the forecast from last night. Updated some of
the timing for the precipitation on Saturday.

Previous Discussion...

Not much change this period. Friday plenty of clouds ahead of a
warm front bringing the start of rain during the afternoon into
the evening. Highs mostly upper 70s to lower 80s Friday. Still
looking at a heavy rain event Friday night into Saturday.
Remnants of Laura will move northeast into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday night then track east. This system will be captured by a
cold front associated with a surface low dropping southeast
through the Great Lakes ahead of an upper level trough. Deep
tropical moisture will be over the area with precipitable water
amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches.

Rain amounts range from around an inch to nearly 2 inches in
Oneida county. Rivers are low being the end of summer so rain
amounts would have to be higher to cause any flooding that way.
Flash flooding possible mostly Saturday afternoon with any heavy
rain. by that time the ground will be saturated. A cold front
will be moving southeast through the area possible with some
embedded thunderstorms. the rain exits Saturday evening with a
few lingering late night showers in the Finger Lakes and western
Mohawk Valley with the upper level trough. A cold northwest flow
starts Saturday night with lows in the 50s.

The severe weather threat looks reduced with the saturated
airmass and low instability. CAPE peaks at 500 and deep wind
shear is 35 to 40 kts. Clearing won't happen between the warm
front and cold front to increase surface temperatures and
instability. High temperatures 75 to 80 with dewpoints around
70. SPC put the far far southeast in a marginal chance of
severe thunderstorms Saturday. This is further to the southeast
than their outlook from yesterday which makes sense.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 am update...
No major changes to the long term period were
made with this forecast update. The latest data supports the
current forecast ideas.

Sunday drier air moves in but a few showers are still possible
in CNY under the upper level trough. Highs mostly only around
70. With less moisture Sunday night lows fall to 50. On Monday
the surface high is centered over the area as the upper level
pattern becomes zonal. A warming trend into Thursday with highs
around 80 and lows around 60. A slow moving system with showers
and thunderstorms starts to move in late Tuesday and exits
Wednesday but another system with more showers possible
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very busy TAF period. Showers-embedded thunder and associated
restrictions are occurring this morning as well as a window of
low level wind shear as a warm front lifts through the region
with a strengthening jet not far off the surface. Then, we will
likely experience a severe weather outbreak with gusty
thunderstorms dropping south with a cold front across the
terminals this afternoon- early evening. They are expected to
form around KSYR-KRME 15Z-18Z, reaching KITH-KBGM-KELM around
20Z-23Z, and then still a decent chance of it getting to KAVP
23Z or shortly after. Hail could even occur at any terminal that
receives a direct hit from a storm core. Post-frontal
restrictions from low clouds or fog are anticipated to develop
tonight with abundant low level moisture in the wake of the
rainfall. Winds initially light and variable, will become WSW
to W 10-15 knots with some higher gusts during the daytime
except remaining variable at KRME; however, storms impacting any
terminal could cause considerably stronger winds. Winds will
then become variable tonight.

Outlook...

Friday morning...Lingering post-frontal ceiling restrictions
likely; possible fog as well.

Friday afternoon through Saturday night...Rain developing and
occasional thunderstorms expected, especially Friday night into
Saturday, with associated restrictions.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR, but valley fog likely Sunday
night for at least KELM and possibly other terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MJM/MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
125 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

NYZ009-015>018-022>024-036-037-PAZ038-043-044-047-281730-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Madison-Southern Oneida-Bradford-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-
125 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms today. Strong to
severe thunderstorms have developed across central NY and will
press southward across into the Twin Tiers this afternoon, and into
Northeast Pennsylvania by early evening.

Damaging winds and large hail are anticipated with the strongest
storms, and a even few tornadoes will be possible in the region.
Heavy rainfall may occur in the strongest storms as well, with
localized flooding possible in streets and urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A system late Friday through especially Saturday, will bring another
round of rain and occasional thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall will be
possible, which could lead to localized flooding. Monitor the
forecast for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ039-040-048-072-281730-
Tompkins-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-
Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
125 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...TORNADO WATCH 455 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A system late Friday through especially Saturday, will bring another
round of rain and occasional thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall will be
possible, which could lead to localized flooding. Monitor the
forecast for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS while following local,
state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
849 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE FAIRMOUNT         43.05N 76.24W
08/27/2020                   ONONDAGA           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
856 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW LA FAYETTE        42.92N 76.12W
08/27/2020                   ONONDAGA           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN IN LAFAYETTE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
951 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMILLUS                43.04N 76.31W
08/27/2020                   ONONDAGA           NY   PUBLIC

            RECIEVED REPORT THROUGH FACEBOOK OF TREES
            DOWN AND LAWN FURNITURE BLOWN AROUND.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1124 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

NYZ018-036-271600-
Onondaga NY-Madison NY-
1124 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EDT...

At 1124 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Syracuse, moving southeast at 50 mph.

Small hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Onondaga, Syracuse, De Witt, Sullivan, Pompey, North Syracuse,
Solvay, Eaton, Chittenango and Manlius.

LAT...LON 4290 7545 4274 7560 4273 7574 4301 7623
      4316 7610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 303DEG 45KT 4305 7609

DGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1152 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

NYZ046-271615-
Otsego NY-
1152 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...NORTHEASTERN OTSEGO COUNTY UNTIL
1215 PM EDT...

At 1152 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Springfield, or 11 miles north of Cooperstown, moving southeast at 50
mph.

Small hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Cherry Valley, Salt Springville, Glimmerglass State
Park, East Springfield and Van Deusenville.

LAT...LON 4260 7465 4259 7465 4282 7501 4286 7498
      4283 7490 4289 7488 4290 7486 4283 7465
      4276 7467 4264 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 303DEG 44KT 4286 7487

DGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
143 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORTLAND                42.60N 76.18W
08/27/2020                   CORTLAND           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON CHESTNUT STREET.

&&