River Flood Warning 3, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
330 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of heavy rain east of I-81, as well as gusty winds
associated with Tropical Storm Isaias will quickly taper off
this evening as the storm moves out of the area. Turning sunny
and cooler for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...
As promised, Isaias has moved into New Jersey this afternoon and
will continue to track almost directly northward through the rest of
the evening and into early Wednesday morning. The bulk of the rain
is already starting to pull out of our Finger Lakes and northeast PA
zones. Rain, with a few embedded lightning strikes, should continue
to wind down from the southwest to the northeast over the next
several hours, then we'll turn dry across most of the area by 0Z.
Until then, heavy rain continues east of I-81, with the heaviest
totals up to 2 to 3 inches across the Catskills. Large swaths of our
eastern forecast area have been able to climb over flash flood
guidance, and with ongoing heavy rain and reports of water issues,
will keep the Flash Flood Watch in effect.

Additionally, with a tight pressure gradient setting up across the
region, gusty winds are expected for the evening hours - again,
particularly east of I-81. Winds increasing to around 20 to 35 mph
may gust in excess of 40 mph across the Catskills and Poconos.
Therefore, will keep our wind advisory going through the rest of the
evening.

Tonight, most of the area will dry out, with only a slight chance
for some showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder continuing
overnight across our northernmost zones as an upper level low moves
into Quebec. Meanwhile, high pressure will build in from the lower
Midwest and contribute to mainly dry conditions for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Temperatures turn cooler, bottoming out in the 60s
tonight before peaking in the 70s to lower 80s under sunny skies
Wednesday. Wednesday night will turn cooler still - even chilly! -
with lows in the 50s and possibly upper 40s across the highest
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper confluent flow will build and hold surface high pressure
over the NY/PA border Thursday into Friday. This will keep the
area generally dry and seasonable. There is a stationary frontal
boundary over northern VA that will serve to focus surface
convergence and interact with weak short waves to generate
convection. Most of this activity will stay well south of the
area but there is the chance that some of the northern fringes
could drop some light rain showers over the extreme southern
parts of our NEPA counties. Best chance of this late Thursday
night into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Continued quiet weather in the long term as high pressure stays
in control. Some isolated showers are possible at times but the
vast majority of the period will remain rain free.

Previous discussion continues below.

Relatively quiet weather is expected this weekend as high
pressure will be in control. A few pop-up showers or
thunderstorms will be possible either day, but the majority of
the area will likely remain dry. Temperatures will be on a
warming trend. Highs on Saturday will likely be in the lower to
mid 80s. Then mid to upper 80s expected for Sunday.

As high pressure moves east of the area, a weak wave may bring
a few showers or thunderstorms to the area on Monday. Highs will
likely be in the mid to upper 80s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain has overspread the area with Tropical Storm Isaias moving
into east central PA. This is touching off mainly MVFR to fuel
alternate conditions so far, but IFR visibility and ceilings are
possible in the heaviest of bands. As the storm continues to
track northward, winds will turn gusty especially at KAVP over
the next several hours. Rain wraps up from south to north
through the rest of the afternoon, with the storm out of the
area by 0Z. A short-lived improvement to VFR across most of our
NY terminals will quickly deteriorate once again as MVFR and
fuel alternate ceilings return - and even IFR will be possible
at KELM. Ceilings improve after sunrise as skies start to
finally clear out. Meanwhile, once rain moves out, KAVP should
see a return to VFR conditions for the rest of the forecast
period.

Outlook...
Wednesday night through Sunday... VFR, except late night-early
morning valley fog likely at KELM beginning Wednesday night;
possibly other terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ039-040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
     Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ048.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ045-046-056-057-
     062.
     Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HLC
NEAR TERM...HLC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...BJG/DGM
AVIATION...HLC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
336 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

NYZ009-036-037-051945-
Northern Oneida-Madison-Southern Oneida-
336 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Though the track for Tropical Storm Isaias and its heaviest rain will
be east of the area, locally heavy rainfall rates are still possible
from showers and embedded thunderstorms this evening. This could
cause localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas, as well as
ponding of water on roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ045-046-056-057-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-072-051945-
Chenango-Otsego-Broome-Delaware-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Southern Wayne-
336 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055-PAZ038-051945-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-
Tompkins-Cortland-Tioga-Bradford-
336 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ062-PAZ048-051945-
Sullivan-Pike-
336 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENTOWN               41.32N  75.31W
08/04/2020                   PIKE               PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODED HOME

&&

MORFORD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     FLOOD            LACKAWAXEN              41.48N  75.00W
08/04/2020                   PIKE               PA   911 CALL CENTER

            RESIDENTIAL FLOODING

&&

MORFORD

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