Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
322 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions are expected today and Tuesday.
Temperatures cool down a bit during the mid to late week
period. The unstable air mass will bring mainly afternoon and
evening scattered showers and thunderstorms most of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
310 pm update...

Heat and humidity across the region is the main story for today
and tomorrow. However, some relief will come for some in the way
of an afternoon thunderstorms. SYR, ITH, and ELM have all hit
heat indices above 95F as of 3P and expecting other urban areas
within the advisory to hit mid to upper 90s as well over the
next couple hours, so will hold onto the heat advisory and allow
it to expire at 7PM.

Weak shear, but plenty of instability is present today and that
is fueling isolated pulse thunderstorms. With the lack of shear,
updrafts have been short-lived thus far and the life cycle for
these storms has been generally 30 minutes or less. However,
will have to watch for back building/training of cells because
rainfall rates have been impressive with 2" to 3" per hours
rates in the cells that have developed thus far. PWATS are in
the 1.75" range, and if we get storms to persist over any one
area, then localized flash flooding will be possible.

Storms will diminish after sunset with the lack of heating.
Overnight will be warm and muggy, as dew points stay in the mid
to upper 60s. Widespread valley fog should not be an issue
tonight as low level flow should be turbulent enough to hind fog
formation, with NAM soundings indicating around 20 knots at
H950.

Tomorrow will be quite similar to today, with heat and humidity
and possible heat indices to the mid to upper 90s, but
confidence is still not high enough to issue a Heat Advisory
at this time as thunderstorm activity may be more widespread
than today. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible, but unlike
today, there will be a slow moving cold front approaching the
region. The timing of this front is a little later in the day
and we likely see showers and storms continue into the evening
and overnight hours as it passes the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 pm Update...

The slowly moving cold front makes its way into NE PA on
Wednesday becoming a focal point for the development of showers
and thunderstorms. With weak flow aloft, the showers and
thunderstorms will not be moving fast so heavy rain is possible
where the precipitation forms. Chances quickly dwindle after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Right now it looks like the front stalls in central PA into the
mid-Atlantic region. This gives the Poconos the best chance of
seeing some scattered showers and thunderstorms again on
Thursday afternoon.

The front and associated showers will keep the afternoon
temperatures more seasonable and well below the heat seen
earlier in the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 pm Update...

Model guidance has been more consistent with the stalled
frontal boundary south of our region, trying to leave us cooler
and dryer for the end of the week into the weekend. PoPs were
not lowered too much due to the uncertainty stated in the
previous discussion. No model has handled the derecho occurring
in the midwest and this will likely have significant downstream
impacts on the forecasted location as well as the formation of
several shortwaves that could lead to fluctuations in the
stalled boundary.

Previous Discussion...

Tricky long term forecast with subtle features adding to the
uncertainty. Models show a low forming over eastern NC along the
old cold front. This system will slowly drift east and north
through SUnday continuing the treat of showers and storms over
our more southern zones, namely NEPA. Difficult to say how far
north the threat of convection will reach but the consensus
seems to be along and south of the NY/PA border. North of that,
the long term will be generally dry and seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Hot and humid airmass over the region will help fuel isolated to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms, however, conditions will be
mostly VFR over the next 24 hours. Felt most confident at this
time based on current development in adding a TEMPO for
thunderstorms at SYR, but all our sites other than AVP could
possibly have a storm come overhead later this afternoon.

Thunderstorms will die off with the loss of heating at sunset.
At this time, the probability for fog formation overnight is
low, as low level flow should be strong enough to hinder
development. Tomorrow, VFR is expected, but showers and
thunderstorms develop again with afternoon heating.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Saturday...Occasional restrictions
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ016>018-
     023>025-055-056.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...AJG/DGM
LONG TERM...AJG/DGM
AVIATION...MPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
301 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

NYZ009-015-022-036-037-044>046-057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-
072-111915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Steuben-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
301 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ016>018-023>025-055-056-111915-
Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Tioga-
Broome-
301 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
339 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

NYZ023-024-102015-
Chemung NY-Schuyler NY-
339 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLER AND
NORTHERN CHEMUNG COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 339 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Horseheads North, or 8 miles north of Elmira, moving east at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Horseheads, Erin, Cayuta, Van Etten, Millport, Breesport, Horseheads
North, Mark Twain State Park, Swartwood and Tompkins Corners.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4226 7690 4229 7666 4228 7654 4216 7655
      4217 7689
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 266DEG 6KT 4221 7681

Kistner