Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS La Crosse, WI

556 
WWUS43 KARX 200250
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
850 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

...Bitterly Cold Wind Chills Overnight And Thursday Morning...

.Bitterly cold wind chills of 20 to 30 below will be common across
portions of northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota overnight into
Thursday morning. If you must be outdoors, be sure to dress in 
layers and cover all exposed skin. 

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ086-087-094-095-201100-
/O.CON.KARX.WC.Y.0004.200220T0600Z-200220T1500Z/
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Chickasaw-Dodge-Olmsted-Mower-Fillmore-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Charles City, New Hampton,
Dodge Center, Rochester, Austin, and Preston
850 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Iowa and 
  southeast Minnesota.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

04

352 
WWUS43 KARX 200855
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
255 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

...Bitter Cold Wind Chills This Morning...

.Bitter cold wind chills in the 20 to 30 below range will persist 
across portions of northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota 
through mid morning. If you must be outdoors, be sure to dress in
layers and cover all exposed skin.

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ086-087-094-095-201500-
/O.CON.KARX.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200220T1500Z/
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Chickasaw-Dodge-Olmsted-Mower-Fillmore-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Charles City, New Hampton,
Dodge Center, Rochester, Austin, and Preston
255 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 30 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Iowa and 
  southeast Minnesota.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

DAS

175 
WWUS43 KARX 201501
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
901 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

...Wind Chill Advisory Allowed to Expire...

.Temperatures will continue to warm today, but will remain cold for
late-February. Prepare for cold temperatures and winds less than
10 mph.

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ086-087-094-095-201615-
/O.EXP.KARX.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200220T1500Z/
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Chickasaw-Dodge-Olmsted-Mower-Fillmore-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Charles City, New Hampton,
Dodge Center, Rochester, Austin, and Preston
901 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

Temperatures will continue to warm today, but will remain cold 
for late-February. Prepare for cold temperatures and winds less 
than 10 mph.

$$

db

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1117 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 141 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

Strong surface high pressure settling into the Dakotas continues to
exert broad influence across the Upper Mississippi Valley. Skies
were clear over most of the forecast area early this morning thanks
to dry low level air filtering in from the north along with ongoing
cold air advection. However, increasing clouds just upstream are
beginning to creep into the far western portion of the forecast
area. These clouds are tied to some frontogenetic forcing and
localized warm air advection and will continue to spread into the
area through the morning hours per model RH fields and HREF cloud
cover. In response to the fgen upstream, a band of snow showers is
developing from northeast Nebraska into northwest Iowa early this
morning, but synoptic models and CAMs are in good agreement with
keeping this just outside of northeast Iowa. If anything, perhaps a
few flurries brushing our far southwestern counties briefly this
morning. Clouds will gradually be suppressed south of I-90 this
afternoon as a progressively drier airmass (PWATs <0.1") drops in
and the fgen band sags further south. Noticeably colder today with
highs ranging from single digits to the teens.

The surface high will strengthen to an impressive 1048mb tonight as
it slides into southwest Minnesota, about 3 standard deviations
above the mean for mid to late February. Tonight will be the coldest
period of the foreseeable future as arctic air accompanying the
high sends 925/850mb temps plummeting to -15 to -19C across the
forecast area. Lows will drop into the single digits to teens
below zero, perhaps approaching -20 in the typical cold spots. As
the center of the high will sit just west of the forecast area,
winds aren't expected to completely decouple, but they will be
light. Combined with our frigid low temperatures, those light
winds will produce wind chills that marginally exceed advisory
thresholds late tonight into Thursday morning for a portion of the
forecast area. But given we're talking wind speeds <10mph for a
small area, thinking we'll probably just handle with a Special
Weather Statement and other messaging.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

As the high slides off to our south on Thursday, the cold air aloft
will retreat off to the east. Modest warm air advection will develop
across the Upper Mississippi Valley, strengthening during the day
Friday. Temperatures will be slow to respond at first with highs
Thursday just a few degrees warmer than Wednesday and lows Thursday
night still within a few degrees of either side of zero. By Friday,
highs will jump into low to mid 30s, followed by some 40s over the
weekend.

Dry weather looks to persist through the weekend thanks to the dry
airmass over the region and near zonal flow aloft Friday through
Sunday. Next chance for any precipitation would be with a shortwave
progged to eject from the Four Corners region into the lower Ohio
Valley by Monday. Plenty of variance in intensity and placement of
the surface low among deterministic and ensemble guidance. For now,
there looks to be decent agreement for at least the southern portion
of the forecast area to get brushed by some precip on the northern
edge of the system. But we all know how fickle these systems are and
how tricky of a forecast it is when sitting on the northwest
periphery. Pretty much the only thing worth keeping an eye on in the
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with northwest
winds generally remaining under 10 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kurz
LONG TERM...Kurz
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
208 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-201200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
208 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Wind chills are expected to fall to 15 to 25 below zero across
much of the area tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Wind chills of 15 to 25 below zero will continue into Thursday
morning across much of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Kurz