Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
255 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Early this morning, showers/storms were occurring across southern
MN/northern IA into southwest WI on the nose of a strong low-
level jet/warm advection. These will continue to move off to the
east and southeast through sunrise. A few strong to severe storms
will remain possible over the next few hours across mainly
northeast Iowa. Most of the storms should exit the area by mid-
morning.

Later today, the warm front will try to lift north while the a cold
front quickly approaches from the west during the afternoon. Temps
will depend considerably on how far north the warm front makes it
and the degree of clearing, but gusty south winds and temps well
into the 80s are likely south of the front, while north-central WI
may remain in the 60s to near 70. Will have to closely watch the
progress of the cold front, with the HREF indicating 3000+ J/kg
SBCAPE with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear ahead of it. A narrow
window for surface based storm development is possible late this
afternoon/early evening mainly southwest WI into possibly central
WI, with potential for a severe storm if storms develop. Higher
chances look to be east and south of the area. The cold front will
quickly swing through the remainder of the area early this
evening with a drier, cooler airmass advecting into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Wet and unseasonably cool weather will be the theme for this week's
weather. Strong 1000-850 mb cold advection behind the cold front
into Labor Day will usher in a much cooler airmass, with highs
generally in the 60s. Showers will likely spread into the area from
the west later in the day on Monday with increasing mid-level
frontogenesis as troughing deepens across the Rockies/plains. As the
longwave trough slowly progresses across the midsection of the
nation through mid-week with southwest flow aloft downstream, a
sharp SW to NE frontal zone will set up from the plains into the
Great Lakes. A cool and raw mid-week period is expected with highs
struggling to reach 50 in some spots and widespread periods of rain
(potentially several inches over a duration of a few days) aided by
strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis. As the trough slowly moves east
through late week, some guidance indicates a closed low could evolve
and meander slowly through MS Valley or Great Lakes, but confidence
remains quite low as to the ultimate evolution of the trough and
rain chances late in the week. A gradual warm-up is expected into
next weekend but temps will remain below average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020

Convection has been developing this evening north of a warm front
that extends from southeast South Dakota into northern Missouri.
The front did not progress as far north as previously expected and
as a result, the main area of convection is expected to stay
farther to the southwest. Will likely still see some additional
development farther to the north as the strong low level jet gets
going and this will have a chance to impact KRST overnight with
some MVFR/IFR conditions. With KLSE being farther east, even more
questionable how much activity will be around it and have dropped
back to just a VCTS for now. All this activity should push to the
east early Sunday morning with a short period of MVFR ceilings
possible. Otherwise, expect breezy southwest winds with VFR
conditions until the cold front comes through late in the
afternoon/early evening and swings the winds around to the west.
Additional convective development Sunday should be to the
southeast of both airports.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1253 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     HAIL             OELWEIN                 42.68N 91.91W
09/06/2020  E0.25 INCH       FAYETTE            IA   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
115 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

IAZ009>011-019-029-030-MNZ086-087-094>096-WIZ054-061-060715-
Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-Winneshiek-Howard-Allamakee-Fillmore-
Houston-Olmsted-Dodge-Mower-Crawford-Grant-
115 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020

...Numerous Storms Overnight...

Thunderstorm activity continued to produce hail, gusty winds,
locally heavy rain, and frequent lightning early this morning,
especially across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and into
southwest Wisconsin. Some areas may have received over 2 inches of
rain.

There have been wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range and occasional
hail.

Storms may intensify overnight, so be certain to monitor for
warnings. Remain indoors.

LAT...LON 4264 9071 4268 9090 4264 9208 4291 9208
      4291 9255 4350 9255 4350 9305 4420 9305
      4420 9233 4411 9232 4410 9208 4385 9208
      4385 9129 4343 9122 4342 9067 4317 9067
      4320 9043 4251 9042 4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 281DEG 49KT 4358 9219

Shea

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
123 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     HAIL             OELWEIN                 42.68N 91.92W
09/06/2020  E1.00 INCH       FAYETTE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
144 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND GST     SARATOGA                43.37N 92.41W
09/06/2020  M59 MPH          HOWARD             IA   MESONET

            RWIS SITE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
309 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HAYFIELD                43.89N 92.85W
09/06/2020  M2.53 INCH       DODGE              MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DW7957 HAYFIELD.

0231 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW SARATOGA          43.35N 92.42W
09/06/2020  M1.32 INCH       HOWARD             IA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW5287 SARATOGA.

0231 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W SARATOGA            43.36N 92.48W
09/06/2020  M1.12 INCH       HOWARD             IA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW4652 RICEVILLE.

&&

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