Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
651 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

Synoptic mid-level shortwave trough/MCV will rotate into the area
this afternoon while a surface cold front oozes southeast into the
area while washing out overnight. Given very warm and muggy airmass
in place and these forcing mechanisms, expect an uptick in scattered
thunderstorm activity through this afternoon into tonight. Most of
this activity looks to be focused mainly north of I-90. Will have to
watch for a few stronger/possibly severe storms with 0-3km bulk
shear 20-25kt. Primary severe threat would be wind with secondary
being hail maybe around an inch. In addition, with precipitable
water hovering around 1.5 inches these storms will contain some
heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm chances hang around Tuesday with that washed out cold
frontal boundary/mid-level trough overhead. Threat for
stronger/severe storms look less though given weaker bulk shear.
Otherwise, another very warm and muggy day on tap with highs in the
80s/few lower 90s and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday night is looking quiet overall as upper level ridging re-
establishes itself over the region. May still see a few
showers/storms sneak back into western potions of the area in warm
air advection/moisture transport ahead of low pressure over the
Northern Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

Another reinforcing shot of warm air advection off the Plains will
push highs Wednesday back into the upper 80s to possibly some mid-
90s while uncomfortable dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s linger.
This will push heat indices into the 95-100 range. Meanwhile, any
thunderstorm chances look to be confined mainly north of I-94.

Latest GFS/ECMWF bring a cold front through the area Thursday into
Friday for continued thunderstorm chances. Meanwhile, model median
temperatures look to be in 80s -still warm but maybe a little break
from the very uncomfortable heat?

Although it looks mainly dry Saturday/Sunday/Monday, will keep some
low-end rain chances in as northwest flow may bring some "ridge
rider" storms into the region. Otherwise, look for highs in the 80s
with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

Scattered showers and storms will continue mainly east of the
Mississippi River for the next 2-3 hours. Expect activity to
gradually diminish in intensity with sunset. Mainly just a VCTS
threat for LSE unless some other cell would soon bubble up along
the previous storm's outflow boundary.

Main weak boundary responsible for triggering this activity is
slowly sagging south through the area and will sit to our south
overnight. Weak ripples in the flow aloft that ride along this
boundary could be enough to trigger some additional convection
later tonight into Tuesday, which makes it difficult to time the
greatest potential. Guidance doesn't hint at much, and would
expect mainly isolated showers until we destabilize sufficiently
Tuesday afternoon, but can't rule out an isolated storm before
then. Confidence in timing and coverage of convection within this
TAF period is low. Winds expected to be light through the period,
but with many weak boundaries around direction will likely be
variable tonight, otherwise primarily a southerly to westerly
wind.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS/Rieck
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Kurz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
521 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-071100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
521 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight
for areas generally along and north of Interstate 90. A few of
the afternoon and evening storms could be strong to possibly
severe with hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rain the main
threats.

Heat indices are expected to reach the middle to upper 90s this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Expected periodic thunderstorm chances through Sunday. Organized
severe weather is not expected.

The heat and humidity will continue into the weekend. Wednesday
looks to be the hottest day with heat indices of 95 to 100. The
cumulative effects of the heat and humidity may take a toll on
those with outdoor activities or without air conditioning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

04/CJA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
654 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             2 ENE BLACK RIVER FALLS 44.31N 90.81W
07/06/2020  M0.25 INCH       JACKSON            WI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA MPING.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
700 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

WIZ041-042-070045-
La Crosse-Monroe-
700 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LA CROSSE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 659 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bangor, or 9
miles southwest of Sparta, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sparta, West Salem, Bangor, Cashton, Leon, Portland, Norwalk,
Rockland, Melvina, County Roads G And H, St Marys, The Coulee
Experimental Forest, Middle Ridge, I 90 Exit 25, Highway 33 And
County Y, Newburg Corners, I 90 Exit 28, Norskedalen, St Joseph and I
90 Exit 15.

LAT...LON 4373 9106 4390 9106 4397 9064 4373 9062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 257DEG 22KT 4383 9092

Kurz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
700 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

WIZ029-034-070030-
Jackson-Clark-
700 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CLARK AND
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 659 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Millston, or 14 miles east of Black River Falls, moving east at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Millston, City Point, Ballard Road And Pray Avenue, I 94 Exit 128,
The Black River Correctional Center, Bear Bluff Township, Pigeon
Creek Campground, Potters Flowage, Seventeen Flowage, Pray and
Nevins.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4416 9066 4438 9076 4452 9032 4416 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 250DEG 26KT 4431 9055

Peters

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