Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
216 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

At 2 PM, a rapidly strengthening surface low was just moving into
southwest Iowa. The warm front was located over southern Iowa.
Temperatures were in the 40s north of this front and in the 60s
and 70s south of this front.

The models continue to show that this low will move northeast this
afternoon and tonight. It continues to look like there will be a
potential in the HRRR and RAP that the warm sector could get into
the southern portions of Fayette and Clayton counties in northeast
Iowa and Grant County in southwest Wisconsin. Surface based CAPES
may climb up to 750 J/kg. Helicity is up to 250 and the 0-1 km
shear is 40 knots. Due to this, there is still a potential of
isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. These storms will move at
50 to 60 mph.

Further to the north, the elevated CAPES will climb up to
1000 J/kg up to Interstate 90. With the shear over 40 knots, some
of the storms could become supercells. With a straight-line
hodograph, there could be right and left supercells. The main
threat will be hail. The largest hail will likely range from 1 to
1.5 inches.

From tonight into Sunday, a deformation band of rain will move
east across the area. Additional rain will range from 0.25 to 0.75
inches. Northwest winds will gust into the 30 to 40 mph from late
Sunday morning into the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

On Sunday evening, the deformation band of precipitation will move
quickly east out of the area. Before it exits the area, the rain
may mix with some light snow north of Interstate 94. As the
pressure gradient relaxes during the late evening and overnight,
the sustained wind and wind gusts will gradually diminish.

As we head into the April, a shortwave trough and cold front will
move out of the Northern Plains and through the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. The models continue to struggle on the timing of
when this colder air will move into the region. As a result, just
stayed with the NBM. In the wake of this front, high temperatures
will range from the mid- 30s to mid-40s, and low temperatures
will be mainly in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Ceilings will remain LIFR to MVFR through the TAF period.
Visibilities will be primarily MVFR. Scattered thunderstorms will
be possible in the KLSE area between 29.00z and 29.02z. These
storms may produce some small hail.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Rainfall totals will range from 0.25 to 0.75 inch across the area
through tonight. This is about a quarter inch than the previous
forecast. This was done due to the speed of the showers and storms
late this afternoon and evening and the dry slot which will be
moving into the area tonight.

This rain will result in rises on area rivers. Those on the Black
and Kickapoo rivers may approach minor flood stage early next
week. Meanwhile, those along the Mississippi River may see minor
flooding during the latter half of next week.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne
HYDROLOGY...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
547 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

IAZ008>011-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-291100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Wabasha-
Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-
Richland-
547 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected today with the possibility for strong
to isolated severe storms early this afternoon into this evening.
The main threat will be hail.

25 to 35 mph wind gusts out of the east are expected this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

30 to 40 mph wind gusts out of the northwest are expected on Sunday.

Widespread rainfall near 1 inch is expected through Sunday. This
will lead to river rises into the upcoming week, with flooding
possible in some areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports could be needed this afternoon. Please relay any
reports to the National Weather Service.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ029-030-WIZ061-291100-
Fayette-Clayton-Grant-
547 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Iowa
and far southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected today with the possibility for strong
to severe storms early this afternoon into this evening. The main
threat will be hail, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. The tornado and damaging wind threat will be
from around 5 PM to 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

30 to 40 mph wind gusts out of the northwest are expected on Sunday.

Widespread rainfall near 1 inch is expected through Sunday. This
will lead to river rises into the upcoming week, with flooding
possible in some areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports could be needed this afternoon. Please relay any
reports to the National Weather Service.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

CA

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