Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS La Crosse, WI

704 
WWUS53 KARX 281121
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

MNC039-281145-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-200828T1145Z/
Dodge MN-
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT
FOR DODGE COUNTY...

At 621 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kasson, or over
Mantorville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Dodge
County, including the following locations... County Roads 20 And 5,
Concord, Eden, Highway 57 And 570th Street, County Roads 6 And 15,
County Roads 5 And 6 and Wasioja.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9304 4419 9268 4394 9268 4391 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 245DEG 25KT 4404 9277 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Baumgardt

811 
WWUS53 KARX 281136
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
636 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

MNC039-281146-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-200828T1145Z/
Dodge MN-
636 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DODGE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
645 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning will have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
La Crosse.

LAT...LON 4420 9304 4419 9268 4394 9268 4391 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1136Z 270DEG 44KT 4403 9255 

$$

Baumgardt

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
328 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

A complex of severe storms was rolling east out of South Dakota
early this morning. This complex is expected to continue moving
east across the southern portions of Minnesota with good
clustering by the hi-res meso-scale models showing this entering
the western portions of the forecast around around 13Z. This
complex will still have the potential to be severe as it comes
rolling with with the 28.06Z RAP showing between 1000 and 1500
J/kg of ML CAPE residing west of the Mississippi River with
excellent deep layer shear of 50+ knots in the 0-3 km layer.
Forecast soundings from the RAP suggest mid-level lapse rates will
be below 7 C/km for the most part, so damaging winds and heavy
rains look to be the main threats. With a quite rapid eastward
movement, this complex should progress quickly across the
forecast and be exiting the area by 17Z at the latest.

During the afternoon, an upper level low will be progressing east
across Manitoba with the southern extent of the associated short
wave trough working across North Dakota into northern Minnesota.
At the same time, additional short wave troughs look to be coming
out of South Dakota and moving across southern Minnesota and
northern Iowa. A surface low is forecast to form over South Dakota
early this morning and work northeast toward the short wave trough
with the Canadian upper level low. This is expected to drag the
front currently over the area back to the north as warm front with
a cold front expected to move in from the west as the surface low
progresses into northern Wisconsin this afternoon. This cold front
may be the focus for another round of severe weather this
afternoon. The 28.00Z NAM is very robust with the CAPE ahead of
the surface front showing ML CAPE of 3500+ J/kg from northeast
Iowa into southwest Wisconsin where it has an axis of mid 70s
surface dew points. It also shows 35+ knots of shear in the 0-3 km
layer in place over the CAPE pool. The 28.06Z RAP and 28.00Z HREF
are similar in placement with the CAPE pool but suggest it may be
more on the order of 2500 J/kg. The RAP has been trending stronger
with the shear and at this point is very similar with what the NAM
is showing. This should support an environment where discrete
storms, possibly supercells, may form as the front pushes in.
Mid-level lapse rates look to be in the 7-8 C/km range would
support the formation of large hail and forecast hodographs show
decent curvature in the lowest 3 km to suggest at least an
isolated tornado is possible.

The big unknown on the severe threat for this afternoon is the
impact this morning's convection will have on the recovery into
the afternoon. It's possible that the cold pool from this
morning's convection could push the front too far south to not
allow it to lift back north this afternoon and keep the warm
sector from getting back into the area. Also, the heating may be
held back some by the left over cloud cover and limit the amount
of CAPE that forms. These trends will have to monitored through
the day to help refine the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

With the focus on the short term, have only given the longer term
a quick glance this morning. The next chance for rain looks to
come in for late Sunday night into Monday. Another upper level low
should be moving across central Canada with a long wave trough
extending into the Upper Midwest. This will push another cold
front across the area to provide the focus for a round of showers
and storms. After that system moves through, the long wave
troughing looks to remain over the Midwest. As short wave troughs
ripple through this flow, there will be periodic small chances for
additional rain through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Shower and storm activity near LSE expected to shift east by the
beginning of the TAF period with the rest of the overnight hours
looking dry for both airfields. Monitoring current complex of
storms out over the Dakotas, as it is expected to morph into
somewhat of broken, bowing line that races eastward towards the
area around daybreak. General consensus among hi-res guidance
has it racing through the TAF sites roughly between 11-15Z. Could
be some gusty winds as the leading edge pushes through, and can't
rule out some pop up activity just ahead of its arrival. If it
arrives as intense as guidance suggests, expect tempo MVFR to
perhaps IFR visibility reductions and possibly lowering cigs.
Likely some lingering showers through late morning and then we
should see dry conditions thereafter for RST. LSE could see some
scattered redeveloping storms mid to late afternoon, but that will
depend on whether morning activity clears out quickly enough to
allow the atmosphere time to recover and destabilize through mid-
afternoon. Due to the low confidence, will just continue with VCTS
for now through early evening. Light east/southeast winds early
this morning will gradually veer southwest to west through the
day, eventually becoming north...and eventually northwest by
evening once a cold front pushes through. Expect some afternoon
gustiness to 20-25 knots.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WIZ034-042>044.

MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Kurz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
451 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-291100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
451 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe storms will be possible this morning for locations
generally north of Interstate 90. Damaging winds, large hail and
locally heavy rains leading to flash flooding will be possible.

Another round of severe storms will be possible this afternoon
generally south of Interstate 90. Large hail, possibly up to 2
inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be
the main threats. An isolated tornado could also occur.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of western Wisconsin
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There will be on and off chances for additional storms from Sunday
night through Thursday. At this time, organized severe weather is
not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today, especially during the
afternoon.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
440 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TOMAH                   43.99N 90.50W
08/28/2020                   MONROE             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADS IN THE TOMAH AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
442 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MAUSTON                 43.80N 90.08W
08/28/2020                   JUNEAU             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COMING UP UNDER TO DOOR AT THE
            SHERIFFS OFFICE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
443 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE MAUSTON            43.79N 90.06W
08/28/2020                   JUNEAU             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADWAYS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
503 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

MNZ079-086-087-094-281230-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Mower-
Including the cities of Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester,
and Austin
503 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...Thunderstorms Expected This Morning...

A complex of showers and thunderstorms is moving across Minnesota
and is expected to affect southeast Minnesota between 6 and 9 am.

Brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are to be expected
with the storms. However, some of the storms could be severe with
large hail and damaging winds.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 am.

Baumgardt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
514 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW LISBON              43.87N 90.17W
08/28/2020  M6.62 INCH       JUNEAU             WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW6192 NEW LISBON. PREVIOUS
            6 HOURS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
535 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

MNZ079-086-087-094-281230-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Mower-
Including the cities of Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester,
and Austin
535 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...Thunderstorms Moving In This Morning...

Showers and thunderstorms will move across southeast Minnesota
through 9 am.

Wind gusts to 40 mph, small hail, and frequent lightning will
accompany the storms. Be aware that brief heavy rainfall will slow
your commute as well.

However, isolated storms could be severe with hail to 1" in
diameter and damaging winds.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 am.

Baumgardt