Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS La Crosse, WI

028 
WWUS53 KARX 101103
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
603 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNC109-157-101112-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-200810T1145Z/
Olmsted MN-Wabasha MN-
603 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL OLMSTED AND
EASTERN WABASHA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, hail, 
gusty winds, and heavy rain are possible with additional storms in 
the area.

LAT...LON 4419 9192 4420 9186 4423 9189 4425 9189
      4427 9190 4429 9193 4431 9191 4435 9194
      4441 9153 4425 9153 4421 9160 4418 9160
      4417 9161 4414 9156 4410 9154 4404 9157
      4403 9156 4400 9145 4399 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1102Z 271DEG 34KT 4429 9164 4412 9168 4395 9183 

$$

MNC169-WIC011-101145-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-200810T1145Z/
Winona MN-Buffalo WI-
603 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WINONA AND SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTIES...

At 602 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles west of Arcadia to Fountain City to near
Lewiston, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Winona around 605 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Waumandee, Montana, Merrick State Park, Czechville, Highway 95 And
County G, Lock And Dam 5 A and Dodge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4419 9192 4420 9186 4423 9189 4425 9189
      4427 9190 4429 9193 4431 9191 4435 9194
      4441 9153 4425 9153 4421 9160 4418 9160
      4417 9161 4414 9156 4410 9154 4404 9157
      4403 9156 4400 9145 4399 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1102Z 271DEG 34KT 4429 9164 4412 9168 4395 9183 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CA

448 
WWUS53 KARX 101134
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
634 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNC169-WIC011-101143-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-200810T1145Z/
Winona MN-Buffalo WI-
634 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WINONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
southern Winona County until 645 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4419 9192 4420 9186 4423 9189 4425 9189
      4427 9190 4429 9193 4431 9191 4435 9194
      4441 9153 4425 9153 4421 9160 4418 9160
      4417 9161 4414 9156 4410 9154 4404 9157
      4403 9156 4400 9145 4399 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1130Z 268DEG 26KT 4430 9135 4413 9139 4396 9154 

$$

CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
221 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Early morning radar imagery showed a cluster of severe storms
moving through the Twin Cities area, just ahead of a southwest to
northeast oriented surface cold front. SPC mesoanalysis suggests
3000+ J/kg of MUCAPE ahead of these storms with effective shear of
35 to 40 kts continuing southeast with them. In addition, low
level moisture transport, while not particularly strong, does look
to persist through sunrise. Therefore, thinking these storms
should continue into the forecast area, with additional
development expected as the front continues to advance
southeastward. Time of day suggests damaging wind would be tough
to come by, but have seen a 50+ kt gust or two at times as
additional cores form and combine with ongoing convection. That
said, hail should be the main threat as these storms move in this
morning.

Meanwhile, expect additional storms to form across southern South
Dakota and eventually develop into an eastward moving MCS that
tracks across Iowa and possibly clips far southwest Wisconsin
today. Already seeing some signs of this occurring with light
showers forming along what seems to be a weak secondary surface
boundary. Eventually, expect this to develop into an eastward
moving MCS that moves across Iowa today. It should eventually
catch up to the main boundary and bring a strong to severe storm
threat to far southern portions of the forecast area. Said threat
will really depend on how far southeast the main front makes it,
with areas behind said front seeing much less of a threat.
Otherwise, could see some lighter showers farther north associated
with the aforementioned secondary boundary as it slowly sinks
southward this afternoon.

Any precip should exit by late afternoon/early evening with high
pressure building in behind the front. This should lead to
clearing skies tonight, with perhaps some fog forming in the MS
River tributaries, though winds just above the surface look like
they might be a bit too strong for more widespread development.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Upper level flow looks to remain zonal through much of the period
with surface high pressure building in and leading to quiet
weather through Wednesday morning or so. Models are in good
agreement then of several shortwave troughs moving through the
forecast area and bringing off and on shower and storm chances
through the remainder of the period. While quite a bit of model
spread remains timing and strength (though nothing looks overly
strong), GEFS members seem to be in pretty good agreement of the
first chances moving in Wednesday. That said, the 10.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/NAM all remain dry, so forecast confidence remains
fairly low. Otherwise, expect seasonable temperatures into next
weekend, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Cold front now extends across southwest Minnesota, with some
thunderstorms firing ahead of it. Expect storms to become more
widespread overnight as the front continues to advance, and local
TAF sites could be affected in the early morning hours. Once this
system clears later Monday morning, VFR conditions will return to
the area.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rieck/CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...DMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
308 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-110815-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
308 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Iowa
and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered storms today. A few could be strong with hail, gusty
winds and locally heavy rain the threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There are mostly small storm chances Wednesday into Sunday. The
threat for organized severe weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Rainfall reports are appreciated. Spotter activation is not
anticipated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-110815-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
308 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...and western into north central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered storms, mainly this morning. A few could be strong to
severe early with a hail, damaging wind and heavy rain threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There are mostly small storm chances Wednesday into Sunday. The
threat for organized severe weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Rainfall reports are appreciated. Timing of early morning storms
likely precludes spotter activation.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Rieck/CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
358 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNZ079-086>088-WIZ032-033-101100-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Buffalo-Trempealeau-
Including the cities of Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona,
Alma, Arcadia, and Whitehall
358 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...Line of Strong to Severe Storms to Impact parts of Southeast
Minnesota into West-Central Wisconsin This Morning...

A line of storms will continue eastward into parts of southeast
Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin this morning. These storms
have a history of producing large hail, strong to damaging wind
gusts, and heavy rainfall.

Be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and take
shelter indoors if storms approach your location.

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
455 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MNZ094>096-101200-
Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Including the cities of Austin, Preston, and Caledonia
455 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...Strong to Severe Storms to Impact parts of Southeast
Minnesota This Morning...

Strong to severe storms will continue eastward in parts of
southeast Minnesota this morning. These storms have a history of
producing large hail, strong to damaging wind gusts, and heavy
rainfall.

Be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and take
shelter indoors if storms approach your location.

CA