Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
338 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Main forecast concerns are on severe thunderstorm potential late
this afternoon into this evening.

We are watching locations across northeast Iowa and southeast
Minnesota for thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
atmosphere has been slow to destabilize this afternoon thanks to
the cloud cover. However, there is about a 2 county wide corridor
ahead of the cold front where storms are expected to initiate.
Shear profiles suggest a few supercell structures are possible
early, with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 40-50 kts in areas
northwest of a Charles City Iowa to Medford Wisconsin line, then
we should see storms form into clusters or possibly linear
structures. 0-3 km line normal bulk shear values will be in the 30
to 35 kt range so cannot rule out a brief QLCS tornado if storms
go more into a linear mode. Overall the main threats from the
storms are damaging winds and possibly large hail. A brief tornado
cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain is another concern with the
storms with the potential for flash flooding concerns if storms
repeat over areas. The 850 mb moisture transport veers pretty
quickly this evening but a component of it looks to impact the
front to keep storms going over northeast Iowa and far southwest
Wisconsin which could lead to an increased threat for heavy
rainfall with repeated storms. Will be watching this closely.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

We should see some dry time Wednesday night through Thursday night
with high pressure in control. Focus then turns to very warm and
humid conditions going into next weekend with chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Heat index values look to climb to around 100
Saturday afternoon across much of the area.  Areas near and south of
Interstate 90 could see heat index values climb into the upper 90s
Sunday afternoon. Will be watching this closely as a heat advisory
may be needed for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Main taf concerns are periodic showers/storms at both taf sites
this afternoon into this evening. A cold front extending from
northwest Wisconsin into western Iowa will track across the area
this afternoon into tonight. Showers/storms will continue to
develop along and ahead of the cold front. Limited instability
across the area will reduce the coverage of the storms.
However...storms are expected late this afternoon into this
evening at both taf sites. The storms will be capable to be
severe with hail and damaging winds. For now...have kept any
mention of hail or stronger winds based on the limited coverage of
the severity of storms. The cold front will push far enough south
tonight and shower/storm chances will diminish at both taf sites.
This will allow for VFR conditions at both taf sites...mainly
after 06z Wednesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...DTJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
303 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-151200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
303 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon Into Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into this
evening. The main threats from the storms will be damaging winds,
large hail, and heavy rainfall. A brief isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There are additional storms chances through the weekend. It is
too early to discern if there would be a severe risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few spotter groups may be needed late this afternoon into this
evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Wetenkamp

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
133 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W DORCHESTER          45.00N 90.40W
07/14/2020                   CLARK              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT SANDHILL ROAD AND
            COUNTY ROAD A.

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
203 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WITHEE                  44.95N 90.60W
07/14/2020  M4.50 INCH       CLARK              WI   PUBLIC

&&

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
206 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W MEDFORD             45.14N 90.37W
07/14/2020  M3.10 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   PUBLIC

&&

CA

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>