Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS La Crosse, WI

525 
WWUS53 KARX 112131
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
431 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

MNC039-099-109-112215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200711T2215Z/
Olmsted MN-Mower MN-Dodge MN-
431 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OLMSTED...MOWER AND SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 430 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles northeast of Ellendale to near Hollandale to
Glenville, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Austin around 440 PM CDT.
  Hayfield and Lyle around 450 PM CDT.
  Rose Creek around 455 PM CDT.
  Adams and Brownsdale around 500 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4403 9304 4392 9245 4350 9245 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 301DEG 40KT 4394 9319 4378 9309 4357 9325 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JSB

789 
WWUS53 KARX 112139
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
439 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

MNC039-099-109-112215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200711T2215Z/
Olmsted MN-Mower MN-Dodge MN-
439 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OLMSTED...MOWER AND SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 438 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Blooming Prairie to near Austin to near London, moving
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Brownsdale around 445 PM CDT.
  Hayfield, Lyle and Rose Creek around 450 PM CDT.
  Adams around 500 PM CDT.
  Grand Meadow around 505 PM CDT.
  Stewartville and Le Roy around 515 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4403 9304 4392 9245 4350 9245 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 288DEG 41KT 4389 9305 4375 9298 4354 9314 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JSB

936 
WWUS53 KARX 112151
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
451 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

MNC039-109-112159-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200711T2215Z/
Olmsted MN-Dodge MN-
451 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN OLMSTED AND
SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
north central and northeastern Iowa...and southeastern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4385 9304 4385 9269 4383 9269 4383 9245
      4350 9245 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 302DEG 37KT 4383 9296 4369 9289 4351 9303 

$$

MNC099-112215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200711T2215Z/
Mower MN-
451 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR MOWER COUNTY...

At 449 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Blooming Prairie to near Brownsdale to near 
London, moving southeast at 45 mph. As this line moved through 
Austin, it caused several branches to fall on some powerlines which 
brought them down too.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Lyle and Rose Creek around 455 PM CDT.
  Adams around 505 PM CDT.
  Grand Meadow and Le Roy around 515 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Brookside Campground, Mayville, County Roads 4 And 8, Waltham,
Renova, I 90 Exit 179 and I 90 Exit 183.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9304 4385 9269 4383 9269 4383 9245
      4350 9245 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 302DEG 37KT 4383 9296 4369 9289 4351 9303 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JSB

138 
WWUS53 KARX 112159
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
459 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

MNC099-112215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200711T2215Z/
Mower MN-
459 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR MOWER COUNTY...

At 458 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Brownsdale to near Adams to near Stacyville,
moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Le Roy around 510 PM CDT.
  Grand Meadow around 515 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9304 4385 9269 4383 9269 4383 9245
      4350 9245 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 297DEG 45KT 4374 9281 4361 9268 4349 9277 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JSB

634 
WWUS53 KARX 112204
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
504 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

MNC099-112215-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200711T2215Z/
Mower MN-
504 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR MOWER COUNTY...

At 504 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles east of Brownsdale to 6 miles east of Adams to
near Stacyville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Le Roy around 510 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Brookside Campground, Mayville, County Roads 4 And 8, Waltham,
Renova, I 90 Exit 179 and I 90 Exit 183.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9304 4385 9269 4383 9269 4383 9245
      4350 9245 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 289DEG 41KT 4372 9273 4359 9260 4347 9269 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JSB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
304 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

First round of thunderstorms this morning developed with weak
shortwave ripples in the northwest flow aloft around 08Z, 09z, and
10Z...strengthening 12-15Z enough to produce large hail and
damage to crops across parts of Chickasaw and Fillmore Counties.
These storms have continued as they are pushing into Indiana.

Thunderstorms re-developed near Alexandria, MN late this morning
and had advanced toward Mankato by 230pm. This line of storms is
forecast to drop southeast, meanwhile, 700mb warm advection will
increase across northern Iowa with additional thunderstorm
development across northern Iowa. As the stronger shortwave
trough moves across the forecast area especially from 3pm until 8
pm. A 75kt 300mb jet is diving across the Central Plains and the
forecast area is in the left front exit region of the jet through
early evening. Expect storms to tap into deep layer shear of 40 to
50kts and MUCAPE of 3000-4500J/kg across parts of southern
MN/southwest WI into Iowa. The environment will have steep lapse
rates of 6.5 to 7.5 C/km. These factors favor severe storm
development. The SPC HRRR has MLCAPE focused more just to the west
of our county warning forecast area into central Iowa. The
outflow from the thunderstorms this morning will affect the
intensity and coverage of strong to severe storms as local
dewpoints have dropped to 65 by late morning, but is recovering.
The instability gradient has been pushed southwest...thus will be
monitoring this afternoon to see how quickly or outside of the
outflow the instability will return. At 2pm surface dewpoints are
pooled from northwest Iowa toward ALO and CID to MLI. Visible
satellite imagery shows some storms developing along this
boundary. Along and to the west of the outflow boundary,
temperatures are mostly 85 to 90 degrees with cooler 80 to 85
degree air. DVN did a special 19Z sounding. It showed very steep
low level lapse rates and SBCAPE around 2250J/kg.

The most recent radar shows a couple of clusters in southern Iowa
and in northwest Iowa with several reports of large hail 1.5 to
2.5 inches). The SPC HRRR tends to focus the organized convection
over central and eastern Iowa with a few isolated cells into
southeast MN and western Iowa. The SSCRAM/HRRR severe weather
guidance highlights the hail potential along the outflow boundary
especially toward Waterloo IA. The SPC mesographics have 40 to 45kts
of deep layer shear over our Iowa county warning area into central
Iowa. Sfc vorticity is higher near the boundary as well with an
isolated tornado threat.  Isolated supercells possible
initially then more of a cluster as the storms push southeastward.
We do have a severe thunderstorm watch out for parts of southeast
Minnesota into eastern Iowa.

The convection moves out this evening with some patchy fog
possible later tonight and Sunday morning with light north winds. Lows
tonight will be comfortable in the 50s and 60s with light north
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

For Sunday...there is some hint that showers/thunderstorms are
possible. Our convective temperatures are only in the upper 70s
and we still have around 1 inch of precipitable water to work
with. Will want to see if there is a weak shortwave that we can
track that is forecast to drop south from SD into Iowa. We are on
the east side of the ridge and remain uncapped. May need to add
some isolated pops if we can pin down the potential better.

The mid tropospheric trough moving into southwest Canada Sunday
night into Monday will try to break down the ridge with a 40 to 50kt
low level jet increasing across the Plains...then weakening to 35kts
across Minnesota...and strengthening again to 40 to 50kts across MN.
The focus for storms Sunday night will be across North Dakota. There
may be some storms that try to develop over southern MN or western
WI Monday...however confidence is low until later Monday night and
Tuesday until there is a better push along the cold front.  Will
need to watch more on the timing, however there is some stronger
deep layer shear forecast Tuesday along with precipitable water
values of 1.5 to 2 inches.  The instability looks skinnier...more in
the 1000 to 2000J/kg range.  Heavy rain will be a concern.

The front may push south for Wednesday or linger across our far
south.  There is not good agreement in the flow for Thursday and
Friday as to more of a trough or flatter ridge.  Some chance of rain
with any shortwaves in the flow...thus will need to refine timing as
we get closer.

Not as hot this weekend and into next week with highs in the 70s and
80s. Normal highs are in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Cigs: sct-bkn mostly VFR clouds through the period - with BKN cigs
during periods of greater pcpn chances. Can't rule out a brief drop
into MVFR with afternoon convection, but timing/confidence on
occurrence not high enough to add to the forecast for now.

WX/vsby: Sct -shra/ts this morning with a weak upper level
shortwave...mainly for KRST. Higher chances then return for the
afternoon - with again greater threat for KRST. Higher wind gusts
with any storm, along with locally heavy rain and accompanying lower
vsby. A strong/severe threat this afternoon too...mostly for KRST.

Winds: staying on the light side outside of any storm. Will swing to
the northwest/north for the afternoon.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1057 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-121100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
Crawford-Richland-Grant-
1057 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the
evening. A few will be strong, potentially severe, carrying a
damaging wind and hail threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periodic thunderstorm chances through the week with Tuesday
holding the higher threat for widespread storms. A few stronger
storms are possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few spotter groups may be needed today.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

WIZ017-029-121100-
Taylor-Clark-
1057 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the
evening. Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periodic thunderstorm chances through the week with Tuesday
holding the higher threat for widespread storms. A few stronger
storms are possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

CA
nofwd

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     HAIL             2 S ALPHA               42.97N 92.04W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       FAYETTE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT. NORTHWEST OF HAWKEYE.
            RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

CZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1104 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SUMNER              42.85N 92.06W
07/11/2020                   FAYETTE            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DELAYED REPORT. 3 LARGE TREES DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
208 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE WESTGATE           42.80N 91.96W
07/11/2020                   FAYETTE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELAYED REPORT. SEVERAL FARM OUT BUILDINGS
            DAMAGED OR BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN W13 AND W14
            AND 100TH TO 130TH ST. SOME CORN FLATTENED.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE WESTGATE           42.80N 91.96W
07/11/2020                   FAYETTE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELAYED REPORT. SEVERAL FARM OUT BUILDINGS
            DAMAGED OR BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN W13 AND W14
            AND 100TH TO 130TH ST. SOME CORN FLATTENED.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0857 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SUMNER              42.85N 92.06W
07/11/2020                   FAYETTE            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DELAYED REPORT. 3 LARGE TREES DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0850 AM     HAIL             2 S ALPHA               42.97N 92.04W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       FAYETTE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT. NORTHWEST OF HAWKEYE.
            RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

0841 AM     HAIL             FREDERICKSBURG          42.97N 92.20W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       CHICKASAW          IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            .

0838 AM     HAIL             3 WNW WAUCOMA           43.07N 92.09W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       CHICKASAW          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SIGNIFICANT CROP
            DAMAGE DUE TO HAIL 3 TO 4 MILES EAST OF
            LAWLER. HAIL SIZE ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZED OR
            LARGER.

0836 AM     HAIL             3 E NEW HAMPTON         43.06N 92.25W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       CHICKASAW          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
307 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-112100-
Floyd-Winneshiek-Chickasaw-Howard-Fayette-Mitchell-
307 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MITCHELL...HOWARD...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...WINNESHIEK AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES...

At 302 PM CDT, strong storms were beginning to develop across parts
of north-central and northeast Iowa.  These thunderstorms are
expected to continue to strengthen and possibly become severe.  The
main severe threats will be damaging winds and large hail.

These storms are expected to become strong and severe, so be certain
to monitor local radio stations and available television stations
for additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4349 9303 4350 9162 4265 9161 4264 9208
      4291 9208 4291 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 310DEG 29KT 4330 9341

JSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
324 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

MNZ086-087-094-095-112115-
Olmsted-Dodge-Fillmore-Mower-
324 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OLMSTED...MOWER...DODGE AND
FILLMORE COUNTIES...

At 321 PM CDT, strong storms were developing across parts of south-
central and southeast Minnesota.  These thunderstorms are expected
to continue to strengthen and possibly become severe.  The main
severe threats will be damaging winds and large hail.

These storms are expected to become strong and severe, so be certain
to monitor local radio stations and available television stations
for additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4420 9305 4420 9260 4415 9232 4411 9232
      4411 9208 4385 9208 4385 9193 4351 9174
      4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 303DEG 21KT 4406 9330

JSB