River Flood Warning 15, NWS La Crosse, WI

294 
WGUS83 KARX 291017
FLSARX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
516 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two 
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility 
vehicles. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Additional river and weather information is available at...
weather.gov/lacrosse.

&&

WIC053-291046-
/O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200530T0900Z/
/BRFW3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
516 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Black River at Black River Falls.
* At  4:00 AM Friday the stage was 46.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 47.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 46.7 feet. The 
  river will continue to fall to 44.2 feet by Saturday morning.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1020 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Pretty busy stretch of weather the past 24 hours, but a welcome
reprieve is coming - both from the weather and also from the recent
stretch of humidity if you're not a fan of such things. Broad upper
low continues to spin over the Lower Mississippi River Valley at
this hour, with a stronger northern stream working dropping into
western Ontario. That setup drove quite the strong low/mid level
frontogenetic response overnight, with widespread showers and storms
developing, some of which produced heavy rains of 2-4 inches and
some mainly minor flooding. Thankfully that setup is dwindling as of
early afternoon, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary over
southwest Wisconsin and the residual mid level forcing feeling the
influence of the northern stream wave and on the move, helping
displace the focus for additional precipitation to the south and
east through early evening while also waning in coverage.

What follows will be a pretty dramatic change, as much cooler air
aloft filters into the region into Friday, complete with 850mb
temperatures dipping as low as 2-3C per current trends. That's more
typical of October and a quick check upstream confirms such
thinking, with temperatures only in the 40s and 50s as of 18Z across
the Northern Plains, tucked beneath a thickening axis of diurnally
enhanced cumulus. That same idea should play out there to wrap up
the work week, with the core of coolest air aloft arriving during
"peak heating" Friday, with steep lapse rates and plenty of moisture
at the top of the inversion favoring scattered to overcast diurnal
cumulus, and temperatures struggling through the 60s. Refreshing!

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure persist through the
weekend, keeping cool, dry air over our region. 850 mb temperatures
will hover around 3C (-1 to -2 NAEFS standard anomalies), which
should translate to highs in the 60s and 70s. In addition, dewpoints
will be much lower than recently, bringing a stark change from the
recent humidity. Lows at night are expected to be in the 40s for
many, with even some 30s possible Saturday night in the typical cold
spots of central Wisconsin as high pressure moves directly overhead.

Large upper level ridge nudges closer to our area for early next
week, with southerly return flow at the surface ushering in warmth
and humidity once again. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase as well, as several pieces of shortwave energy round the
ridge into our area. 850 mb temps soar to around +20C by Tuesday
evening (+1 to +2 NAEFS standard anomalies), resulting in highs well
into the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Once potential caveat to this
heat is the potential for clouds and thunderstorms each day, which
may keep highs lower. Details become murky by the end of the week,
with disagreement on whether we finally dry out again or continue
the active weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Cigs: skc/scattered high/mid level clouds for the overnight hours.
Lower cigs will return by late Fri morning though as cloud shield
currently over the dakotas/southern Canada drops southeast. Some
diurnal elements with this mass, but bufkit soundings and rh fields
point to ample saturation, accompanied by favorable low level lapse
rates. Will keep VFR for now, but see some potential for cigs around
2.5 kft. Expect some scattering of the deck Fri evening, but another
quick round of bkn cigs could return overnight.

WX/vsby: with winds generally above 6 kts and drier sfc dewpoints
filtering in, don't think fog will be a concern for the TAF
locations. Will monitor.

Winds: northwest through the period, picking up with a few higher
gusts on Friday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lawrence
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Rieck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
255 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-291200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
255 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

However, rises on rivers are likely through the coming weekend, with
some minor flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm chances return later Monday and continue through
midweek.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Lawrence