Frost Advisory 3, NWS La Crosse, WI

243 
WWUS73 KARX 121958
NPWARX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
258 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020

WIZ017-029-034-042>044-130400-
/O.CON.KARX.FR.Y.0003.200513T0500Z-200513T1300Z/
Taylor-Clark-Jackson-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-
Including the cities of Medford, Neillsville, Black River Falls, 
Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, and Friendship
258 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures will drop to the lower 30s, however the
  favored cold spots could be as low as 28. Frost formation is
  expected.

* WHERE...Taylor, Clark, Jackson, Monroe, Juneau and Adams 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

232 
WWUS73 KARX 130410
NPWARX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1110 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020

WIZ017-029-034-042>044-131300-
/O.CON.KARX.FR.Y.0003.200513T0500Z-200513T1300Z/
Taylor-Clark-Jackson-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-
Including the cities of Medford, Neillsville, Black River Falls, 
Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, and Friendship
1110 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures of 26 to 34 degrees overnight.

* WHERE...Monroe, Juneau, Adams, Jackson, Clark and Taylor 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freezing temperatures could kill sensitive 
  outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

Lawrence

571 
WWUS73 KARX 130843
NPWARX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
343 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020

WIZ017-029-034-042>044-131300-
/O.CON.KARX.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200513T1300Z/
Taylor-Clark-Jackson-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-
Including the cities of Medford, Neillsville, Black River Falls, 
Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, and Friendship
343 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures from 25 to 30 in many locations through 8 AM,
  along with areas of frost.

* WHERE...Monroe, Juneau, Adams, Jackson, Clark and Taylor 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM CDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freezing temperatures could kill sensitive
  outdoor vegetation if not protected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

Lawrence

640 
WWUS73 KARX 131318
NPWARX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
818 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Temperatures will continue to warm this morning, and freezing
temperatures are no longer expected. 

WIZ017-029-034-042>044-131430-
/O.EXP.KARX.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200513T1300Z/
Taylor-Clark-Jackson-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-
Including the cities of Medford, Neillsville, Black River Falls, 
Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, and Friendship
818 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Temperatures will continue to warm this morning, and freezing
temperatures are no longer expected. 

$$

db

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
149 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020

One more cold night with high pressure overhead and little in the
way of clouds until late across central and northcentral
Wisconsin. Will be issuing Frost or Freeze Warnings along and
north of I-94.

Large scale pattern change is beginning with longwave ridge
building into the Northern Plains. GOES water vapor showing a lead
shortwave trough on the ID/MT border at 18Z with a second sharper/deeper
trough along the OR/CA coast. These two waves, and height falls
across the Plains, will elicit an open Gulf of Mexico return flow
by Wednesday with elevated /~700mb/ moisture transport and upglide
occurring by early afternoon over MN. This shifts into northwest
WI in conjuction with the lead shortwave trough /the MT/ID/ wave.
With steepening mid-level lapse rates, some elevated cumulus
towers are probable and increasing TSRA chances north of I-90.

By later afternoon, the real moisture plume arrives in the lower-
levels, isentropically upgliding for more widespread shower
development into evening. Lapse rates will favor elevated thunder
chances, but low MUCAPE on the order of a few hundred /highest
south of I-90/ should keep it mainly a pea-sized hail and
lightning threat.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020

The active weather regime looks to continue from late week and into
early next week, but book-ended by a couple of quiet days Friday and
Monday. High pressure arriving Friday should deliver quite the nice
day with some passing high clouds but mild readings and somewhat
drier dew points filtering in on northerly flow. We'll then watch
the weekend for the approach of a stronger shortwave trough toward
later Saturday into early Sunday (exact timing still TBD, which
should provide a pretty good shot at some rainfall over much of the
area. From a severe weather perspective, still a bit early to
discern given discrepancies between the guidance (GFS by far the
most robust from a shear perspective) but worth watching the next
few days. That system then looks to quickly pass by Sunday, leaving
high pressure and a return to quiet/less humid conditions for Monday.

Looking just beyond, and this is just for the spring weather fans,
there continues to be a fairly strong signal for a reversal to the
recent weather pattern, with broad closed low pressure working
through the western CONUS and driving expansive ridging building
over much of the central and eastern states. That pattern would
easily result in a stretch of big-time warmth and much more humid
conditions, along with some risk for thunderstorms at times as
various shortwaves work northeast out of the mean western trough
position. CFS severe weather plots also continue to "light up" into
late month across the Plains and at times into the Mid and even
Upper Mississippi River Valley, suggesting we may well be on the way
to a more typical late spring active stretch of weather over the
coming 2 weeks. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020

VFR expected for the TAF period with winds increasing Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020

Inverted-V soundings are still around Wednesday, with mixing
through about 800 mb and gusty southeast winds in the 20-30 mph
range. Relative humidities are in the 30s in the afternoon with
moisture recovery in central WI. So, while winds are gusty and
meaningful, less favorable relative humidities will be in place
for weather conditions favoring higher-end fire spread. Will have
to monitor to ensure mositure return is occuring on Wednesday,
otherwise weather conditions will be more favorable for spread.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baumgardt
LONG TERM...Lawrence
AVIATION...Baumgardt
FIRE WEATHER...Baumgardt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
305 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-131200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
305 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

However, one more round of temperatures near or below freezing is
expected tonight across portions of central Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The main threat with any storms will be lightning.

Additional chances for thunderstorms will be found this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Lawrence