Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2020

Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

February 27, 2020Antrim County, Kalkaska County, Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Feb 27, 2020, 1:28 PM EST for Antrim County, Kalkaska County, Michigan. It was in force for 31 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 27, 2020, 1:28 PM EST (18:28 UTC)
Expired
Feb 28, 2020, 8:35 PM EST
In force
31 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

Counties Antrim County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 28, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.81 Ese Mancelona, MICOCORAHS STATION MI-AT-6 MANCELONA 0.5 ESE. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.
Feb 28, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.11 Ese Mancelona, MICOCORAHS STATION MI-AT-6 MANCELONA 0.5 ESE. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 48 HOURS.
Feb 28, 8:30 AM ESTSNOW 4.52 Ene Sharon, MICO-OP OBSERVER STATION KSEM4 KALKASKA 11 SE. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.
Feb 28, 8:30 AM ESTSNOW 6.72 Ene Sharon, MICO-OP OBSERVER STATION KSEM4 KALKASKA 11 SE. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 48 HOURS.
Feb 28, 6:30 PM ESTSNOW 125 Se Alba, MI36 HOUR TOTAL. RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 216 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2020-02-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2020-02-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -150 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
724 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-150 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
10 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

043 
WWUS43 KAPX 271828
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
128 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020


MIZ021-027-280230-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0003.200227T1828Z-200229T0000Z/
Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Kalkaska
128 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  10 to 12 inches possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-026-033-280230-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Missaukee-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, and Lake City
128 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow with blowing and drifting snow. Total 
  snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches over much of the area, with 
  locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Antrim, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska and 
  Missaukee Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with periods of 
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ022-028-099-280230-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Otsego-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Grayling, and Charlevoix
128 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow with blowing and drifting snow. Total 
  snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches over much of the area. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Otsego, Crawford and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with periods of 
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-280230-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, and Drummond Island
128 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow with blowing and drifting snow. Total 
  snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over much of the area. 
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa and Southeast 
  Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with periods of 
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
7 follow-up statements
733 
WWUS43 KAPX 271957
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
257 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020


MIZ021-027-280400-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Kalkaska
257 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  10 to 12 inches, locally higher. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-026-033-280400-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Missaukee-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, and Lake City
257 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches, locally higher possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Grand Traverse and Missaukee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ022-028-099-280400-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Otsego-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Grayling, and Charlevoix
257 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 9
  inches, locally higher possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Otsego, Crawford and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-280400-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, and Drummond Island
257 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 7 to
  10 inches, locally higher. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southeast Chippewa, Western Chippewa and Central 
  Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
866 
WWUS43 KAPX 272019
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020


MIZ021-027-280700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Kalkaska
319 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Near white-out conditions at
  times. Additional snow accumulations tonight and Friday of 10 
  to 12 inches, locally higher. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ020-026-033-280700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Missaukee-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, and Lake City
319 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 
  7 inches, locally higher possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Grand Traverse and Missaukee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ022-028-099-280700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Otsego-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Grayling, and Charlevoix
319 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 
  9 inches, locally higher possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Otsego, Crawford and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-280700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, and Drummond Island
319 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Near white-out conditions at times.
  Additional snow accumulations tonight and Friday of 7 to 10 
  inches, locally higher. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southeast Chippewa, Western Chippewa and Central 
  Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
468 
WWUS43 KAPX 280250
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
950 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020


MIZ021-027-281100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Kalkaska
950 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Near white-out conditions at
  times. Total snow accumulations tonight and Friday of 5 to 11
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ020-026-033-281100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Missaukee-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, and Lake City
950 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations tonight and
  Friday of 2 to 5 inches, locally higher. Winds gusting as high 
  as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Grand Traverse and Missaukee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ022-028-099-281100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Otsego-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Grayling, and Charlevoix
950 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations tonight and
  Friday of 4 to 9 inches, locally higher possible. Winds gusting
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Otsego, Crawford and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-281100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, and Drummond Island
950 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Near white-out conditions at times.
  Total snow accumulations tonight and Friday of 6 to 10 inches, 
  locally higher. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southeast Chippewa, Western Chippewa and Central 
  Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
275 
WWUS43 KAPX 280835
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
335 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

MIZ021-027-281645-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Kalkaska
335 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches. Locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph
  with areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow and blowing
  snow leading to areas of significantly reduced visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-023-024-029-281645-
/O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Montmorency-Alpena-Oscoda-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Atlanta, Alpena, and Mio
335 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3
  inches. Locally higher amounts up to 5 inches near the coastal
  areas of Presque Isle and Alpena counties. Winds gusting as high
  as 35 mph resulting in areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ095-096-281645-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
335 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph resulting in areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Western Mackinac and Eastern Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-026-033-281645-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Missaukee-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, and Lake City
335 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph with areas of blowing
  and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Grand Traverse and Missaukee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ022-028-099-281645-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Otsego-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Grayling, and Charlevoix
335 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph with areas of blowing
  and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Crawford, Charlevoix and Otsego Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-281645-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, and Drummond Island
335 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph with areas of blowing
  and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Southeast Chippewa and Central 
  Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
674 
WWUS43 KAPX 281616
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1116 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

MIZ021-027-290030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Kalkaska
1116 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  6 inches. Locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph with areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow and blowing 
  snow leading to areas of significantly reduced visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-026-033-290030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Missaukee-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, and Lake City
1116 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 
  3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph with areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Grand Traverse and Missaukee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ022-028-099-290030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Otsego-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Grayling, and Charlevoix
1116 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph with areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Crawford, Charlevoix and Otsego Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-290000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, and Drummond Island
1116 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph with areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Southeast Chippewa and Central 
  Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-023-024-029-290030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Montmorency-Alpena-Oscoda-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Atlanta, Alpena, and Mio
1116 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 
  3 inches. Locally higher amounts up to 5 inches near the 
  coastal areas of Presque Isle and Alpena counties. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph resulting in areas of blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ095-096-290000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
1116 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 
  3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph resulting in areas 
  of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Western Mackinac and Eastern Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
235 
WWUS43 KAPX 282002
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
302 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020


MIZ021-027-290400-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Kalkaska
302 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  6 inches. Locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph with areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow and blowing 
  snow leading to areas of significantly reduced visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ095-096-290415-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0500Z/
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
302 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 
  3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph resulting in areas 
  of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Western Mackinac and Eastern Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086-087-290415-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0500Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
302 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph with areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Southeast Chippewa and Central 
  Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-026-033-290400-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Missaukee-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, and Lake City
302 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 
  3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph with areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Grand Traverse and Missaukee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ022-028-099-290400-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Otsego-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Grayling, and Charlevoix
302 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph with areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Crawford, Charlevoix and Otsego Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ088-290000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0000Z/
Southeast Chippewa-
Including the cities of Detour Village, Goetzville, 
and Drummond Island
302 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph with areas of 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Southeast Chippewa and Central 
  Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-023-024-029-290400-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Montmorency-Alpena-Oscoda-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Atlanta, Alpena, and Mio
302 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 
  3 inches. Locally higher amounts up to 5 inches near the 
  coastal areas of Presque Isle and Alpena counties. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph resulting in areas of blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing 
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
123 
WWUS43 KAPX 290135
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
835 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020


MIZ021-027-290945-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T1000Z/
Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Kalkaska
835 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total nighttime snow accumulations of 1
  to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-026-033-290245-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0400Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Missaukee-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, and Lake City
835 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow showers have diminished over this portion of northwest lower
Michigan.

$$

MIZ095-096-290245-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0500Z/
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
835 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow showers have diminished over Mackinac County.

$$

MIZ022-028-099-290945-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T1000Z/
Otsego-Crawford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Grayling, and Charlevoix
835 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total nighttime snow accumulations of 1
  to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Crawford, Charlevoix and Otsego Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-023-024-029-290945-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T1000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Montmorency-Alpena-Oscoda-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Atlanta, Alpena, and Mio
835 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total of up to 3 inches, highest in
  Alpena and Presque Isle Counties. Winds gusting as high as 30
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ086-087-290945-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T1000Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
835 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total nighttime snow accumulations of 1
  to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Western and Central Chippewa County.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to areas of potentially significantly reduced
  visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 27, 11:52 AM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 27, 11:52 AM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1152 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

Busy morning with the "finger of snow" band that has formed over
the forecast area since last night and is dropping moderate to
heavy snow amounts in the affected area. original forecast had the
band a little more south, except for the HRRR which has had the
band in roughly this position since 12z. The latest high res cams
are now in the same camp as the HRRR with the HiResW ARW,
NAMNest and NAMDNG pretty close, too. Have used a combination of
these models, and some hand editing to boost the pops and QPF for
to get the snow amounts we have been seeing and are forecasting.
(NWS Employee near ACB called with 4.7" this morning under the big
band). So far, for this season, this LES event is more like the
classic big band events. Band has stopped moving for the moment,
with many smaller bands surrounding it. Expecting a slight wind
shift by early this afternoon, causing some band collisions, and
re-enhancing the band again.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

Impactful weather: Moderate. Several inches of lake effect snow in
the traditional snowbelts. Strong and gusty winds leading to areas
of blowing snow. Lakeshore flooding of coastal areas in primarily NW
lower Michigan. Several advisories to be issued.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Rapidly deepening sfc low pressure was seen in the NE conus early
this morning, ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trying to phase
with a nrn stream wave in SW Ontario/Lake Superior. The pressure
gradient is already fairly tight over nrn Michigan, with NW winds
resulting in cold advection. Gusty conditions were seen in mainly in
coastal areas downwind of the Lakes. This cold advection has already
also resulted in the development of lake effect snow, which was
intensifying across NW lower, generally west of a line from
Charlevoix to Grayling. Forcing was exploding with the storm system
itself, but was also occurring to our east. Very impressive DPVA
theta-e advection, and upper divergence with a 120+kt jet rounding
the larger scale upper troughing. There was still some light echoes
across far far NE lower Michigan, due to a little better deeper
system moisture, but obs are not showing any snow hitting the sfc,
as there is still quite a bit of lower atmosphere dry air.

The shortwave phasing will continue through today, and the sfc low
pressure deepens further while lifting into Quebec. Sfc low pressure
is expected to drop to 982mb-986mb, which will assist in tightening
the already fairly tight pressure gradient over much of the NE conus
and Great Lakes. NW winds will continue to advect in colder air via
winds gusting easily to 30-35 mph (higher in many coastal areas into
tonight). H8 temperatures will drop to as cold as -18C with good
cyclonic convergence around the region resulting in periodic lake
effect snows getting shoved well inland due to the strong NW winds.
Hi-res models certainly favoring a wavering dominant band of snow
tapping Lake Superior, and focusing in on several counties of NW
lower Michigan. Meanwhile, some of the NW edge back end system snow
is expected to wrap around on top of LES in eastern upper, and
possibly even portions of far NE lower later tonight for lake
enhanced snow. As far as deep overlake instability, well, inversion
heights only get to 4000-4500 feet at peak intensity today into this
evening, but fcst soundings do suggest that the DGZ could get
hammered with max lift through the morning for good dendrites and
more stackable snow. The strong winds may bust up them flakes, but
the expected blowing and drifting will create additional visibility
troubles. This appears to be a setup of a solid "long period" Winter
Weather Advisory (good snow through at least Friday...see below).

Total snowfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected through Friday for much
of traditional snowbelts of NW lower and mainly Chippewa county in
eastern upper, with locally higher amounts in excess of a foot in
the higher terrain of Antrim and Kalkaska counties of nrn lower.
Advisories will be hoisted for these areas.

Will not jump on this just yet, but will have to keep an eye on
portions of Presque Isle and Alpena counties, where that system snow
could enhance the lake effect there for needed advisories, with a
possible 3-6 inches of snow. Confidence is not as high there, and
the main snow would not kick in until primarily tonight.

One more thought. If a dominant band sets up as some hi-res data
suggests, can see the need for Roscommon county to be added into the
Winter Weather Advisory, as they would also be pin-pointed for some
nasty winter weather too.

Highs today will largely be in the upper teens to lower half of the
20s, but there will be some mid and upper 20s in strong downsloping
areas of NE lower, closer to Saginaw bay. Lows tonight will mainly
be in the 10F to 18F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday night  through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...Residual lake effect on Friday, diminishing Friday night into
Saturday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal accumulations of lake effect
expected

Pattern/Synopsis: A northern stream wave digging down through the
upper Great Lakes is starting the phasing process with a negatively-
tilted southern stream wave. This will lead to generally strong/deep
troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS by Friday morning.
With cold cyclonic flow over us we'll hang on to healthy lake effect
chances through Friday. Upper level troughing shifts east Saturday
with heights slowly starting to rise overhead, and surface ridging
poking up into the Great Lakes. This added to ever-increasing anti-
cyclonic flow will create a more harsh environment for lake effect
through Saturday. Temperatures remain cold until a slow warm up
later in the weekend.

Details: We'll have better total-column moisture Friday morning as
synoptic wrap-around moisture rotates south over Michigan. 850mb
temps remain near -17 C for the duration of the day, allowing
deltaT's around 19 C over ice-free sections of the lakes. Inversion
heights remain near 5 kft through most of the day and DGZ depth
stays pretty steady around 3 kft. Although the gradient slackens a
bit through Friday mean boundary layer winds will still be in the
mid to upper 20s. This will allow for fairly decent inland
penetration of the snow bands, into (and possibly through) the
higher terrain. Lake aggregate troughing should set up near the
Straits. There is some concern that this (and associated surface
convergence) sags south through the day. Overnight drier air starts
to nudge in from the west, and we start to lose moisture in the DGZ,
with lowering inversion heights. This will bring lake effect
intensity down through the night, and as we further dry the lower
levels we may switch over to simply flurries in most areas, but some
places could hang on to light snow through Saturday morning. Overall
Saturday looks quiet a bit drier as high pressure nudges into the
area, winds start to back out of the west then, and the flow becomes
more anti-cyclonic.

Overall we look to gain another 2 to 4 inches in the northwest flow
belts of northern lower, less amounts elsewhere.

Friday's highs will be in the low to mid 20s. Slight air mass
modification and slowing/backing winds will bump up temperatures
slightly (into the mid-upper 20s) for Saturday. Both days will
actually be a few degrees below normal for late February.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now. New system may be on
the horizon.

Upper level ridge axis passes directly over Michigan Sunday. At the
surface we get on the backside of surface ridging and WAA ramps up
ahead of the next system. This comes in the form of a clipper moving
through Ontario on Monday, dragging a cold front across Michigan.
The wet period lasts through midweek, with multiple wave treking
near/over the Great Lakes...each with their own surface lows and
chances of precip. The strongest system will move in late Wednesday;
and it rapidly intensifies as it moves up from the southern Plains
toward the Great Lakes. This will definitely be one to keep an eye
on, as this has been hinted at in guidance for a few days now. This
has the potential for some heavy precipitation; at this stage
however this could range from mostly rain to mostly snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 630 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

Rapidly deepening low pressure in the NE conus will lift north into
Quebec over the TAF period, keeping nrn Michigan in strong and gusty
NW flow and cold advection. This cold advection was producing bands
of lake effect snow, but the bands have morphed into a primary
single dominant band over the last few hours. just north of TVC.
Lots of uncertainty in the evolution of the lake effect. However,
the idea is for multiple bands to return this afternoon, impacting
more areas across NW lower. So, will focus some of the lower VSBYS
then, and through the night. It's just very difficult to nail down
any exact timing. Expect the prevailing sky conditions to be or
become primarily MVFR, with periodic IFR CIGS/VSBYS in heavier snow,
and worse conditions if under the dominant band (best threat at TVC
at some point today. Very gusty NW winds are expected to develop as
well, continuing into tonight, resulting in blowing snow at times.

Total accumulations will be around 1-2 inches, with higher amounts
at TVC, maybe up to 5 inches. Snow ratios will be around 19:1 with
snowfall rates sneaking into the inch per hour range during bursts
of heavier snow. These rates will be even higher under a strong
dominant band.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

Rapidly deepening low pressure in the NE conus will lift north into
Quebec tonight, before holding there, while weakening with time into
Saturday. Nrn Michigan will remain in a tight pressure gradient
through Friday morning, with gale force wind gusts impacting most of
Lakes Michigan and Huron over this time. Winds do start dropping off
later Friday into Saturday, but widespread advisory speeds are still
expected through Friday night. Periods of lake effect snow can be
expected into Saturday morning. Have added most all other nearshore
waters to the Gale Warning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 PM EST Friday for MIZ086>088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ020-021-026-
     027-033.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Friday for MIZ016-018-
     020-021-025-031-099.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ022-028-099.
LH...GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Friday for LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING until 11 AM EST Friday for LHZ347-348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345.
LM...GALE WARNING until 11 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-342-344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Saturday for LMZ341.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 27, 3:27 AM EST, 10 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
327 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-280830-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
327 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Accumulating lake effect snow and strong gusty winds will impact
portions of eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan through
tonight. Please refer to the Winter Weather Advisory for further
details.

Strong northwest winds and high waves will likely lead to
flooding and beach erosion along many coastal areas of northwest
lower Michigan through tonight, as well as some coastal areas of
Presque Isle county.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Accumulating lake effect snow and strong gusty winds will impact
portions of eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan Friday.
Please refer to the Winter Weather Advisory for further details.

Strong northwest winds and high waves will likely continue to lead
to flooding and beach erosion along many coastal areas of
northwest lower Michigan Friday, as well as some coastal areas of
Presque Isle county.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the
National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-280830-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
327 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Gale force winds are expected on many nearshore waters of Lakes
Michigan and Huron. Please refer to the latest marine forecasts
for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gale force winds are expected on many nearshore waters of Lakes
Michigan and Huron. Please refer to the latest marine forecasts
for further details.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 27, 10:34 AM EST, 2 hours 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1034 AM EST THU FEB 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     SNOW             BELLAIRE                44.98N 85.21W
02/27/2020  M4.7 INCH        ANTRIM             MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DJC
Local storm report, Feb 27, 12:28 PM EST, 1 hour before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1228 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE ALPENA            45.06N 83.43W
02/27/2020  M46 MPH          ALPENA             MI   BUOY

            BUOY STATION LPNM4 ALPENA, MI.

&&
Local storm report, Feb 27, 12:29 PM EST, 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1229 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNW MUNUSCONG         46.28N 84.21W
02/27/2020  M43 MPH          LSZ322             MI   BUOY

            BUOY STATION WNEM4 WEST NEEBISH ISLAND, MI.

&&
Local storm report, Feb 27, 12:30 PM EST, 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1230 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW FRANKFORT          44.63N 86.25W
02/27/2020  M40 MPH          LMZ346             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XFLT FRANKFORT LIGHT.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 27, 3:27 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryAPXAlpena, Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Crawford and 10 more48 hr
Feb 27, 3:28 AM ESTLakeshore Flood AdvisoryAPXAntrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Emmet, Leelanau, Manistee and 1 more44 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2020Every winter storm warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.