Special Weather Statement, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
359 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...Showers and some thunderstorms...

High Impact Weather Potential: A few stronger storms remain
possible through this evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Short-wave trough axis and attending
surface low pressure is swinging northeastward through central and
northern Ontario this afternoon. Trailing cold front stretches
down through central Upper Michigan (east of Munising) and appears
to be just working into NW Lower Michigan at this hour. A narrow
corridor of moisture/instability is along/ahead of the front, up
through northern Lower Michigan into eastern Upper Michigan.

Overall dewpoints and instability are lower/weaker than anticipated
with SPC mesoanalysis showing 500 J/kg or less of MLCAPE ahead of
the front across the CWA. Thus shower and thunderstorm coverage
has been disappointing thus far. That said, a few cells have
shown promise, exhibiting a stronger updraft and gusty winds/hail
potential.

Surface cold front will slip through northern Lower Michigan
through early evening before stalling across central Lake Huron
into southern Lower Michigan tonight. Tail-end of upper jet
streak/upper divergence max swings through Lower Michigan tonight
and induces a secondary wave of low pressure along the boundary,
down through the thumb region, and potentially another round of
showers/storms along and behind the boundary through tonight.
Generally clearing out on Sunday with slightly cooler and drier
air spreading into the region. But, a few afternoon showers/storms
will be possible in the U.P.

Details:

Overall scattered-numerous showers/storms will continue into
tonight as surface front works through the region acting on the
somewhat limited instability. Less instability than anticipated,
and together with rather weak mid level flow/low-mid level shear
profiles, severe weather threat has been downgraded to general
thunderstorms by SPC. Still, with some decent DCAPE (500-1000
J/Kg) and lower freezing levels, gusty winds and hail remain
possible through early to mid evening.

Meanwhile, front is expected to stall across central Lake Huron
into southern Lower Michigan tonight while upper level short-wave
trough and tail-end of upper jet streak swing through the region
later tonight through Sunday morning. Enhanced dynamic support
spins up secondary low pressure along the front down through the
thumb region. While this occurs, instability along and ahead of
the front increases overnight, drawing moisture/instability
northward out of the SE Michigan/Lake Erie region. Upshot,
anticipate a better organized round of showers and storms to
develop along and behind the boundary across NE Lower
Michigan...after midnight through early Sunday morning.

After the last bit of showers exit NE Lower Michigan Sunday
morning, rest of the morning should be dry with a good amount of
sunshine anticipated through midday. But with cooler air aloft,
daytime heating, and enhanced low level convergence across eastern
Upper Michigan, scattered showers/storms are possible once again
through that area during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

High impact weather potential: None

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

A broad upper level trough will be over the Great Lakes region
throughout this forecast period with persistent northwest flow and
periods of shortwaves and associated moisture producing chances of
showers over northeast lower Monday afternoon. These showers would
develop due to the increased instability due to diurnal heating and
aided by the aforementioned shortwave and available moisture.
Surface high pressure and the lack of moisture will provide for a
precipitation-free day on Tuesday with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies. Daytime temperatures will be a bit cooler Monday and Tuesday
with the northwesterly winds advecting cooler air from
Canada...although still reaching into the 70s. Nighttime lows will
be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds will be northwesterly with
gusts of 15-20 mph expected during the afternoon hours with boundary
layer mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: None

Upper-level troughing is expected to continue to encompass the area
from the Great Lakes up into Hudson Bay while ridging dominates west
of the Mississippi River. High pressure will continue to build into
the region from the northern Great Plains underneath subsidence
aloft provided at the ridge/trough inflection point. This, combined
with low-level moisture being removed from the region over the
weekend, will keep rain chances low through much of next week. No
"big" systems appear to be in the near future...just small rain
chances here and there. Afternoon highs look to be in the lower 70s
through early next week and may not reach back into the 80s until
the end of next week/next weekend. Some chillier overnight lows in
the mid 40s could bring a slight taste of fall to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Weak cold front will slide through northern Lower Michigan this
afternoon/evening producing scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. Front stalls across central Lake Huron into
southern Lower Michigan tonight with a better round of showers and
some storms developing along/behind the front up through NE Lower
Michigan. Thus shower/storm threat will continue for the APN
terminal site through tonight.

Conditions will remain largely VFR through Sunday morning although
may be briefly MVFR at times in any shower/storms. Some gustier SW
winds are out there ahead of the front today. Winds veer
northwest/north later today and tonight behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Winds turn into the west and northwest tonight behind a cold front
moving through the region, and remain northwesterly through
Monday. Winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria through Sunday night. However, some gustier
winds are possible Monday and may lead to advisories for some
nearshore zones at that point.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
410 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-162015-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
410 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move through eastern Upper and northern
Lower Michigan through early evening. Additional thunderstorms
are expected to develop across northeast Lower Michigan later
tonight through early Sunday morning. Severe storms are not
expected. However, any storm could produce gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-162015-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
410 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will impact Whitefish Bay and northern
Lake Huron through through early evening. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern Lake Huron
later tonight through early Sunday morning. Severe storms are not
expected. However, any storm could produce gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
131 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

MIZ086-151815-
Western Chippewa-
131 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...

At 129 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles west of
Lower Tahquamenon Falls State Park, or 18 miles north of Newberry,
moving northeast at 20 mph. Additional thunderstorms are developing
over Luce county and may also become strong over the next hour.

Winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy rain and nickel size hail are
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Paradise, Whitefish Point, Lower Tahquamenon Falls State Park and
Mackinaw Lake.

Storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations
and available television stations for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4677 8491 4675 8490 4669 8498 4657 8498
      4656 8492 4652 8490 4642 8524 4675 8524
      4676 8520 4676 8504 4677 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 239DEG 16KT 4662 8545

ADAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

MIZ026-027-032-151930-
Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Wexford-
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WEXFORD... SOUTHEASTERN
GRAND TRAVERSE AND SOUTHWESTERN KALKASKA COUNTIES...

At 254 PM EDT, a thunderstorm was located near Kingsley, or 16 miles
south of Traverse City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsley and Fife Lake.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4455 8567 4471 8538 4452 8520 4451 8524
      4451 8533 4447 8533 4440 8554
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 237DEG 18KT 4452 8552

JZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
417 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

MIZ097-152045-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
417 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT Bois Blanc Island...

At 417 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Point Aux
Pins, or 8 miles northwest of Cheboygan, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bois Blanc Island.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4566 8448 4576 8469 4579 8466 4577 8462
      4581 8464 4588 8457 4585 8454 4584 8443
      4587 8443 4589 8444 4589 8442 4586 8442
      4584 8440 4579 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 211DEG 14KT 4574 8457

JZ