Small Craft Advisory 108, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1019 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

...Improving conditions tonight...

High impact weather potential: Gusty winds and some more
accumulating snow into early this evening.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Sharp shortwave trough digging across the northern Great Lakes early
this afternoon. Attendant surface low well off to our east, with
robust pressure gradient between it and strong high pressure over
the central Plains bringing intense cold air advection within very
gusty west and northwest wind regime. Secondary cold front working
its way south across northern lower Michigan, with winds taking on a
decidedly more northwest to north direction behind it. Deep forcing,
synoptic moisture contribution, and a very favorable over-water
thermal regime has set the lake-driven snow guns in motion, with
frequent snow showers impacting much of the area. Of course, most
organized and intense snow showers are targeting our traditional
snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan...where no
doubt at least a few inches of snow have already occurred in some
areas.

Pattern remains very progressive heading into the start of this work
week, driven in large part by extended and intense upper level jet
slicing east across western Canada. This will punt current wave
rapidly northeast out of our area tonight, with steadily building
heights on Monday as impressive upper level ridging builds east
across the Intermountain west into the high Plains.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing lingering snow and
gusty winds into early this evening. Cloud and temperature trends
overnight into Monday.

Details:

Lake effect snow showers, at times locally heavy, will continue
through the remainder of this afternoon, with very gusty northwest
winds only exacerbating some of the hazardous driving conditions
However, as mentioned above, large scale features remain very
progressive. As such, synoptic contribution to lake processes will
end quickly this evening as shortwave pivots northeast out of the
area. Rapid top-down drying and lowering subsidence inversion will
take their toll on lake processes this evening...although simple
inertia and a still favorable over-water thermal regime will likely
keep some less organized and intense snow shower ongoing for a few
hours after sunset. Rapid development of elevate warm air advection
should put the finishing touches on lake-driven showers later this
evening and overnight, leaving behind just some shallow lake induced
clouds. While winds will remain gusty tonight, no doubt damaging
wind gusts will end by early this evening.

Warm air advection continues through Monday as high pressure builds
well to our south and weak wave passes by well to our northeast.
Warming is enough to likely end lake processes completely, bringing
increasing amounts of sunshine, especially across northern lower
Michigan. Wave passing to our northeast may keep clouds lingering a
bit longer for our friends north of the big bridge, although dry low
levels and northeast displacement of any appreciable forcing should
keep conditions dry.

As for temperatures...expect lows tonight to bottom out in the
middle 20s to lower 30s, with highs on Monday returning to the 40s.
Of course, those gusty winds (which continue through Monday) will
make it feel several degrees colder.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

By Monday evening the trough and associated storm system will be
pushing through the northeast with ridging pumping up through the
Western CONUS. A weak shortwave/PV anomaly overtops the ridge and
slides through central Canada Monday, and by Monday evening its
associated weak surface clipper will be moving into southeast
Ontario. This could slip a weakening cold front through at least the
northern portion of the CWA. There could be enough moisture and
forcing along and south of the boundary to squeeze out some spinkles
in Eastern Upper, but confidence in this is low. Indeed the best
fgen and -divQ are weak at best and mostly displaced to our north.
Thus most of the area simply remains cloudy and dry overnight.

Heading into Tuesday morning the weak boundary is quickly followed
by transient high pressure through the day, leading to fairly quiet
conditions and calm winds. Winds eventually turn out of the south
and WAA commences, bringing afternoon highs to near 50 south of the
bridge and in the mid 40s north. Wednesday looks to be a repeat of
dry weather and southerly winds with temperatures warming even more
into the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

Heading into late week and the weekend the upper level jet remains
displaced well to our north and troughing digs into the west coast
as a -PNA pattern takes shape. Stubborn surface ridging takes anchor
on the east coast, with any storm systems on a route that takes them
to the west and north of us. Western troughing becomes a cut-off
late in the weekend and a wave rotating around it may finally bring
a small chance of showers chances back into the picture for the
Great Lakes on Sunday. Confidence in this is low however, since both
the Euro and GFS ensembles show quite the dry stretch through the
weekend and even beyond. Overall the trend will be warm and dry for
a while with high temperatures a good 10 degrees above average
thanks to anomalously strong ridging persisting over the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1015 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

Mainly VFR conditions with gusty winds expected through Monday.
As low pressure moves away from the Great Lakes, any precipitation
will end early overnight and ceiling will rise. The VFR conditions
are expected to continue into Monday. Winds remain gusty out of
the NW, but become more westerly during Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1015 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through Monday. Low
pressure moving away from the Great Lakes will relax the pressure
gradient across the area and winds will subside some overnight.
Expect winds to become gusty again during the day Monday as
daytime mixing brings down some higher gusts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING until 11 PM EST this evening for MIZ016-
     018-020-021-025-026-031-098-099.
LH...GALE WARNING until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>348.
     GALE WARNING until 1 AM EST Monday for LHZ349.
LM...GALE WARNING until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING until 11 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.
&&

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
338 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-021200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
338 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Lakeshore flood warnings remain in effect into this evening for
northwest lower Michigan coastal areas of Lake Michigan, as well
as, coastal areas of Presque Isle county in northeast lower
Michigan. Please see the latest coastal flood warning for further
details.

A wind advisory remains for all of northern lower Michigan and
eastern upper Michigan, for wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph at times
into early this evening. Please see the latest wind advisory for
additional details.

Also, accumulating snow will continue into early this evening,
especially across inland areas and the higher terrain within the
traditional snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper
Michigan. Please see the latest winter weather advisory for
additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may
be made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-021200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
338 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Gale and storm force warnings remain in effect for all nearshore
waters through this evening. Please refer to the latest marine
forecasts for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

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