Gale Warning 29, NWS Gaylord, MI

246 
WHUS73 KAPX 150145
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
945 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

LSZ321-150945-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0029.201015T0145Z-201015T2100Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
945 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 12 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-150945-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0029.201015T0600Z-201015T1600Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
945 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to noon EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>348-150945-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0029.201015T0900Z-201015T1800Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
945 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 
  5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including 
  Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI 
  Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ349-LSZ322-150945-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.000000T0000Z-201015T2100Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
945 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 5 
  feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
JK

513 
WHUS73 KAPX 150740
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-151545-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-201015T1600Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kt and highest waves around 9 
  feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>348-151545-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0029.201015T0900Z-201015T1800Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace 
  to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt 
  MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-151545-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-201015T2100Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 12 
  feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ349-LSZ322-151545-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.000000T0000Z-201015T2100Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 5 
  feet.

* WHERE...In Lake Huron, Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI. In Lake 
  Superior, St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

871 
WHUS73 KAPX 151556
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1156 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-160000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-201015T1600Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.000000T0000Z-201017T0400Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1156 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>348-160000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-201015T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.000000T0000Z-201016T1000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1156 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 
  5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including 
  Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI 
  Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-160000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-201015T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0100.201015T2200Z-201016T1000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
1156 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the GALE WARNING, Highest gusts up to 35 kt and 
  highest waves around 12 feet. For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, 
  Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 10 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...For the GALE WARNING, until 6 PM EDT this evening. For 
  the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT 
  Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ322-160000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.000000T0000Z-201016T1000Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1156 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 5 
  feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ349-160000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.000000T0000Z-201016T1000Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1156 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 3 
  feet.

* WHERE...Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

570 
WHUS73 KAPX 152046
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

LSZ321-160500-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-201015T2200Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0100.201015T2046Z-201016T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.A.0021.201017T2100Z-201018T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 30 kt 
  and highest waves around 11 feet. For the GALE WATCH, Highest 
  gusts up to 40 kt and highest waves around 4 feet possible.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 6 AM EDT Friday. 
  For the GALE WATCH, from Saturday afternoon through late 
  Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous highest waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and highest
waves.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-160500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.000000T0000Z-201017T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.A.0021.201017T1800Z-201018T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 30 kt 
  and highest waves around 6 feet. For the GALE WATCH, Highest 
  gusts up to 45 kt and highest waves around 9 feet possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until midnight EDT Friday 
  night. For the GALE WATCH, from Saturday afternoon through 
  late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous highest waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and highest
waves.

&&

$$

LSZ322-160500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.000000T0000Z-201016T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.A.0021.201017T2100Z-201018T0900Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 30 kt 
  and highest waves around 5 feet. For the GALE WATCH, Highest 
  gusts up to 35 kt possible.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 6 AM EDT Friday. 
  For the GALE WATCH, from Saturday afternoon through late 
  Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous highest waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and highest
waves.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-160500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.000000T0000Z-201016T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.A.0021.201017T2100Z-201018T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, Highest gusts up to 25 kt 
  and highest waves around 5 feet. For the GALE WATCH, Highest 
  gusts up to 45 kt and highest waves around 6 feet possible.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel, 
  5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including 
  Bois Blanc Island, Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI 
  Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary and Sturgeon 
  Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...For the SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, until 6 AM EDT Friday. 
  For the GALE WATCH, from Saturday afternoon through late 
  Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous highest waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and highest
waves.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
123 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

High and mid level clouds on the increase across the area this
afternoon...well ahead of shortwave trough and developing surface
low off to our west. Band of warm air advection driven light
showers expanding east across Wisconsin into northern Lake
Michigan, and expect this light rain to continue to spread east
into northern Michigan this afternoon. Most widespread rain will
be across the north half of the area, but even here, expect rain
amounts to remain light.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Gusty winds will develop
this afternoon and tonight...especially late tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Cold front du jour has cleared our CWA
early this morning...but not before it produced widespread wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph (with locally higher gusts as well) and some
thunderstorm activity that generated small hail yesterday afternoon
and evening. All active wx has since come to an end thanks to
building high pressure and the arrival of dry air...resulting in
clear across our most of CWA...W/SW winds AOB 10 kts and temps
mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Surface ridging quickly shifts east of Michigan by around daybreak
this morning...as our next fast-moving upper level trough axis and
surface reflection organize over the Northern Plains. This system
will quickly reach Western Lake Superior by late this afternoon and
track thru Lake Superior this evening...rapidly deepening as it does
so. Associated warm front/WAA wing and increasing moisture will lift
thru our CWA this afternoon...producing widespread rain showers for
Eastern Upper Michigan and the Tip of the Mitt...tapering to chance
POPS across most of our southern CWA. No instability to speak of
with this system...so do not expect any thunder. Breezy SW winds
will again bring another shot of warmer air into the region ahead of
the front. High temps this afternoon will warm into the mid 50s to
around 60 degrees.

Initial cold front will sweep thru our CWA during the evening...then
the secondary cold front will push thru overnight as the upper
trough axis and surface low continue eastward to the Ontario/Quebec
border by daybreak Thursday morning. Widespread rain showers will
expand southward into NW Lower Michigan with the initial cold
FROPA...with rain showers likely overnight as well with the second
cold frontal passage. Lack of instability will keep thunder out of
the forecast tonight...even with a relatively strong cold FROPA.
Winds will further strengthen tonight...especially overnight as a
rather tight low level pressure gradient develops in the vcnty of
the cold fronts. Overnight low temps will cool into the low to mid
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Gusty winds Thursday...overhyped
first snowflakes of the season Thursday night/Friday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Elongated zonal Pacific jet axis spans
about 80 degrees of longitude from just east of the dateline into
the northern Plains...over 160 kts which is a solid 2 to 3 standard
deviations above the mean.  Well-defined short wave trough in water
vapor imagery rolling across the southern Prairie provinces early
this morning (with an impressive 100 kt jet streak at 500mb over
Idaho/Montana)...as flow also starts to buckle east of the dateline.
Long wave trough axis runs through the Great Lakes...with an upper
vortex embedded over Nunavut...and a short wave trough swinging
through the Lakes (now east of Michigan).  Cold air magnitude is
increasing across northern Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba with 850mb
temperatures at or below -8C.  Large area of surface high pressure
over much of the central/southern Plains and mid/lower Mississippi
Valley has suppressed low level moisture down to the Gulf Coast.

Short wave trough over southwest Canada and amplifying flow over the
eastern Pacific will set the stage for Michigan weather through the
end of the week.  Already impressive surface pressure falls occurring
over Montana and the western Dakotas (4-5mb/3h) indicative of
incipient cyclogenesis...this low has been consistently forecast
track through Lake Superior and into northeast Ontario (in the
vicinity of 990mb) by Thursday morning.  Continued retrogression of
the long wave trough axis will open the door for colder air to spill
into the region to end the week as deep layer thermal trough axis
sits over the upper Lakes (forecast 500mb temperatures around -34C
is 2 to 3+ standard deviations below the mean...and would be a
record for the APX RAOB for 00z 17 October if that comes to pass).

Primary Forecast Concerns: Winds Thursday and precipitation chances
through Friday...and precipitation type Thursday night/Friday.

First off...strong pressure gradient behind the departing surface
low and low level cold advection/isentropic descent will help mix
stronger boundary layer flow to the surface.  Morning gusts of 25 to
35+ mph expected...and gusts around 40 mph along the south shore of
Whitefish Bay as well as through the Straits of Mackinac and along
the northwest Lower shoreline.  Will need to watch these areas for
potential Wind Advisory issuance...will be close.  Pressure gradient
expected to weaken through late morning and the afternoon hours...so
wind gusts should slowly diminish as well but will be over 20 mph
until late for most areas. The exception will be over Chippewa
county where gusts over 30 mph will likely persist through much of
the afternoon.  Lake induced showers should already be ongoing at
daybreak Thursday in northwest flow off Lakes Superior/Michigan...
with diurnal heating spreading them farther inland.  As the day
wears on...increasing synoptic scale subsidence will push inversion
heights down...in most cases down to temperatures at or warmer than
-10C.  So later in the afternoon convective coverage may thin out
particularly south of the M-72 corridor.  Temperatures for the most
part should be at least steady if not drop a few degrees during the
afternoon hours (high temperatures mostly during the first part of
the day).

Low level flow expected to back westerly Thursday night...this
should allow convection off Lake Superior to retreat toward the lake
during the evening.  Lake Michigan convection will continue across
much of northwest Lower and the tip of the mitt counties.  Continued
low level cooling will increase the chances that precipitation falls
more as snow...most likely across the higher terrain of northern
Lower away from the marine influence but even heavier bursts of
precipitation should fall mostly of the frozen variety.

Expecting more unsettled showers on Friday that may be enhanced by a
short wave trough rotating through the long wave trough.  Initial
precipitation Friday morning may be just across areas north of M-72
and into southeast Chippewa county and Drummond Island...with shower
coverage increasing ahead of short wave trough and potential
increasing CBL depth.  By Friday night precipitation focus may
return to northern Lake Michigan/far northern Lake Huron with
southwest low level and "synoptically enhanced" inversion heights.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Long wave trough will remain upstream of the region to start the
weekend...and watching another short wave trough digging down into
the mean trough position.  Resultant Plains cyclogenesis and broad
high pressure southeast of the Great Lakes will bring warm advection
to Michigan.  Southerly flow ahead of this system does extend down
to Texas but question as to whether this is enough time to draw
moisture northward as surface low looks to track across the upper
Lakes later Saturday night into Sunday.  So an increased
precipitation threat for the latter half of the weekend followed by
another push of colder air but timing on that is all over the place
and is dependent on system track/timing.  The forecast trend will be
cooler for Monday but big differences in upper level pattern
evolution in the guidance for early next week. Will have to lean
heavily on the consensus forecast for early next week but suspect
more amplified GFS solutions may be a bit overdone.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Band of elevated rain showers expected to cross the taf locations
this afternoon and evening. Cigs are expected to remain VFR as
cloud bases will remain fairly high. No significant vis
restrictions anticipated. Strong surge of cold air advection
develops later tonight into Thursday morning, bringing with it
high end MVFR to low end VFR cigs and scattered light lake effect
rain showers. Low level wind shear expected this evening, with
surface winds become quite gusty again late tonight into Thursday
morning out of the west and northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria within all
Northern Michigan nearshore areas today as SW winds strengthen ahead
of low pressure tracking eastward into and thru Lake Superior.
Conditions may further strengthen to gale warning criteria tonight
into Thursday as a pair of associated cold front sweep through
Michigan. Another round of showers will develop around and ahead of
this system...impacting our area this afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
     LHZ345>349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WATCH from late tonight through Thursday morning for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...GALE WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
     LSZ321-322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321-322.
&&

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
217 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-151200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
217 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible early this evening across
northern Michigan. Although severe storms are not expected, any
stronger storms will be capable of producing brief gusty winds and
small hail.

Increasingly high waves will likely result in minor lakeshore
flooding along the coastal areas of northwest lower Michigan later
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

High waves will likely result in minor lakeshore flooding along
the coastal areas of northwest lower Michigan Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-151200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
217 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible early this evening across the
nearshore waters bordering northern Michigan. Although severe
storms are not expected, any stronger storms will be capable of
producing brief gusty winds and small hail.

Gale force winds are expected on many nearshore waters later
tonight. Please see the latest Gale Warning for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gale force winds are expected on most nearshore waters Thursday. Please
see the latest Gale Watch for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.