Gale Warning 27, NWS Gaylord, MI

684 
WHUS73 KAPX 122004
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
404 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

LSZ321-130400-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0400Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
404 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ342-344-130400-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0400Z/
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
404 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 7 
  feet.

* WHERE...Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI and 
  Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little 
  Traverse Bay.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>348-130415-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
404 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 11 
  feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay 
  National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ322-130415-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
404 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-345-346-130415-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
404 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 7 
  feet.

* WHERE...Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI, Grand Traverse 
  Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI, Seul 
  Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge and Manistee to 
  Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-349-130415-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
404 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 9 
  feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

591 
WHUS73 KAPX 130216
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1016 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

LSZ321-130400-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0400Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
1016 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ342-344-130400-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0400Z/
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
1016 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 7 
  feet.

* WHERE...Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI and 
  Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little 
  Traverse Bay.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>348-130900-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1016 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 9 
  feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay 
  National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ322-130900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1016 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 3 
  feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-345-346-130900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1016 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet.

* WHERE...Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI, Grand Traverse 
  Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI, Seul 
  Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge and Manistee to 
  Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-349-130900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1016 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

590 
WHUS73 KAPX 130344
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1144 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

LMZ342-344-130900-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
1144 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet.

* WHERE...Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including 
  Little Traverse Bay and Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse 
  Light MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346-130900-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
1144 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 9 
  feet.

* WHERE...St Ignace to False Detour Channel.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-130900-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
1144 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ347-348-130900-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1144 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 9 
  feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon 
  Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ322-130900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1144 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 3 
  feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-345-346-130900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1144 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet.

* WHERE...Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI, Grand Traverse 
  Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI, Seul 
  Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge and Manistee to 
  Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-349-130900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1144 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 7 
  feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

437 
WHUS73 KAPX 130758
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
358 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020

LSZ321-131600-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.201013T1500Z-201014T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
358 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ347-348-131600-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.201013T1800Z-201014T0900Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
358 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 7 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon 
  Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ344>346-131600-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0028.201013T1500Z-201013T2100Z/
Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
358 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 9 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI, Point 
  Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI and Manistee to Point Betsie 
  MI.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-131600-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.201013T1500Z-201014T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-
358 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI, Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac 
  Bridge and Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including 
  Little Traverse Bay.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-346-349-LSZ322-131600-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-201013T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.201013T1800Z-201014T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
358 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 5 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...In Lake Huron, Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of 
  Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island, St Ignace to False 
  Detour Channel and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI. In Lake 
  Superior, St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
218 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Morning composite analysis reveals the well advertised very sharp
negatively tilted upper trough axis swinging across the Upper
Midwest this morning, roughly through western Minnesota and
western Iowa. Attending surface cold front lies just ahead of the
upper trough...stretching through central Wisconsin into Illinois.
Ahead of the system, strong SSE low level flow has transported
warm/moist air northward into northern Michigan over top a stout
low level inversion sitting at 1K feet or less (500 feet on this
mornings 12Z sounding). The result, abundant stratus has expanded
across most of the forcast area over the last several hours along
with a good amount of drizzle in the higher terrain.

Upstream, congealing line of showers and scattered thunderstorms
are progressing across western Wisconsin along and behind the
surface front. Thunderstorms are mainly confined to immediately
along and ahead of the front where upward of 500 J/Kg MUCAPE is
indicated on SPC mesoanalysis page.

First off, I have had to beef up the drizzle and fog wording
especially across the higher terrain areas, and lowered forecast
high temps a few degrees. No sign of that going away anytime soon.
Meanwhile, sharp upper trough axis/surface cold front and batch of
showers will be swinging through our area roughly from mid-late
afternoon through early-mid evening or so...again a little slower
than forecast this time yesterday. Quite a bit of thunderstorms
are ongoing across eastern Wisconsin ahead of the front. Axis of
instability ahead of the front is still forecast to lessen as it
slides through our area. But given the overall larger scale
forcing with the front/upper trough, some thunder appears likely
at this juncture. Plenty of strong winds aloft/respectable low-mid
level shear to be tapped by any convection. But convection will be
largely elevated with a minimal threat. That said, will likely
need to monitor any convection as it moves through.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

High Impact Weather Potential...A few non-severe thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening...mainly for areas south of M-
32.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure
continues to slide eastward away from Michigan early this morning.
Meanwhile...low pressure is gathering strengthen over Central
Canada. Occluded/cold front extends from the low southward thru
Central Minnesota and Iowa into the Southern Plains. Thick line of
convection continues to fire along and ahead of this front...
showing a general decrease in intensity over the past few hours with
continued loss of diurnal instability. Closer to home...skies remain
mostly clear across our CWA attm. Upstream area of low clouds over
the Green Bay area continues to push NE toward Eastern Upper
Michigan. Another area of low clouds is making steady northward
progress thru Southern Lower Michigan toward our CWA. Both are
evidence of increasing low level moisture along and north of a warm
front lifting northward ahead of the upstream cold front and toward
the Great Lakes region.

As we head into today and tonight...upstream cold front will
steadily push eastward thru the Western Great Lakes...reaching our
far western CWA by late afternoon and then exiting our far eastern
CWA by late evening. Elongated area of convection along and just
ahead of the front will follow suit...which brings this convection
thru our CWA during peak heating/instability. Near term models do
show a narrow line of limited MUCAPES nearing 500 J/kg ahead of the
cold front this afternoon and early evening. Expect we may see a few
embedded storms within the line of mainly showers that will impact
our entire CWA this afternoon and evening. Chances of thunder will
likely be limited to areas south of M-32 where this weak instability
will reside. Chances of precip will diminish as we head into late
evening and especially overnight behind the cold front.

Expect a relatively mild day thanks to WAA ahead of this cold front.
Afternoon highs will warm into the 60s across our entire CWA. Low
temps tonight will cool back into the upper 30s and lower 40s thanks
to CAA behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overall four wave balanced hemispheric
pattern with a long wave trough axis roughly along 80W longitude and
has been retrograding through the weekend (not surprising given
balanced hemispheric wave pattern). Amplified short wave trough was
plowing its way across the central CONUS...pushed along by a strong
Pacific jet core that stretches west of the dateline.  Remnants of
what was T.C. "Delta" now pushing off the mid-Atlantic coast.  Ahead
of upstream short wave trough narrow moisture axis along it with +2
standard deviation precipitable water values from Minnesota into
western Iowa.  Meanwhile behind the trough colder air is lurking
over the northern Prairie provinces with sub-zero 850mb
temperatures.

Pattern forecast through midweek will find the upper Great Lakes in
the wake of the central CONUS short wave trough and associated cold
front Tuesday morning...but there is a secondary low amplitude short
wave trough and a surface trough/cold front response to this wave
that will cross Wisconsin/Michigan Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Nose of strengthening Pacific jet core (150+ kt) will punch into the
Pacific northwest and northern Rockies Tuesday...but this jet does
contain an initially low amplitude disturbance (currently out near
45N/165W) that is forecast to deepen and dig into the northern
Rockies Wednesday in response to flow buckling upstream over the
Pacific. Cyclogenesis over the northern Plains Tuesday night then
expected to send a surface low into the upper Lakes Wednesday...
surface low will probably cross the forecast area Wednesday night...
with a period of gusty northwest winds in its wake Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Precipitation chances both Tuesday and
Wednesday though the latter looks more likely given the expected
forcing.  Mid clouds should thicken up Tuesday morning...can't rule
out scattered light rain showers with mid level short wave passage
from late Tuesday morning through late afternoon...especially across
eastern Upper and the tip of the mitt where better dynamics expected
to be focused.  Winds on Tuesday ahead of the surface trough/cold
front expected to be gusty from the southwest...gusts of 30+ mph
possible over northern Lower and from 20-30 mph across eastern
Upper.  There is an interesting little precip signal (looks to be
lake induced) Tuesday evening off of far northern Lake Michigan and
southeast Lake Superior just behind the passing surface cold
front...not sure how much stock to put into it right now though it's
a minimal impact overall and there is time to better evaluate the
potential.

For Wednesday...like Tuesday will see clouds start to thicken up
early with strong low/mid level isentropic ascent expected...with
more widespread rain spreading in from the west/southwest from
around midday onward.  Warming upper level temperatures and rather
tepid low level moisture will limit any elevated convective threat
(difference between dynamic tropopause potential temperature and 925-
850mb theta-e greater than 20K).  Widespread rainfall amounts of
0.25+ inch expected and perhaps over one-half inch across Upper
Michigan by Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Wind concerns and lake convection
Thursday...and possible precipitation type issues Friday though not
exactly high impact.

Continued long wave trough retrogression thanks to an amplifying
eastern Pacific ridge will open up a conduit for cold air to spill
into the Great Lakes in the wake of Wednesday night's surface
cyclone crossing.  Gusty northwest winds expected Thursday as the
low passes along with cold air advection...despite uncertainty in
track of the surface low there seems to be a consensus toward
falling temperatures in its wake Thursday.  Arrival of colder air
and passing disturbances will lead to more unsettled showery weather
especially as lake induced convection gets involved.  In
addition...if current trends hold first snowfall of the season may
be in the cards Thursday night/Friday especially over the higher
terrain of northern Lower (given lake temperatures probably around
+13C by Friday morning...need an 850mb temperature around -6C to
support snow across the higher terrain...and closer to -8C near the
lakeshore to overcome influence of marine boundary layer).  But
current trends suggest we will be in that vicinity (and Friday
night/Saturday morning as well).  Temperatures may begin to moderate
during the latter half of the weekend though lots of spread in the
ensemble guidance so to what degree is unknown but at the very least
we can say the trend of below normal temperatures likely to continue
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Abundant stratus remains dominant across most of the region this
afternoon, ahead of a sharp cold front pressing through eastern
Wisconsin. Line of showers/storms ahead of the front will be
working into NW Lower Michigan after 20Z and will slide through
northern Lower Michigan through 03Z this evening. Thunderstorms
are confined to the leading edge of the line of precip, with
thunder looking likely at TVC/MBL between 20Z and 22Z. Less
certain about thunder potential at PLN/APN...but they could also
see TSTMs between 23Z and 01Z.

Behind the front, sharp clearing line will swing through the
region this evening and early overnight bringing a quick return to
VFR weather at the terminal sites.

Gusty S/SE winds ahead of the front will transition quick to gusty
westerly winds late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Winds and waves will reach SCA criteria within all of our nearshore
areas today and tonight as low level winds strengthen ahead of and
behind an approaching cold front. Gale force winds are possible
along portions of our Lake Huron nearshore late this afternoon and
tonight. Chances of showers and storms will increase this afternoon
into tonight as this system moves thru Michigan.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345-346-349.
     GALE WATCH through late tonight for LHZ347-348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ347-
     348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.
&&

UPDATE...BA
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...MR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1208 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-131615-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1208 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible across the outlook area this
afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-131615-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1208 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few gale force gusts are possible within the nearshore areas of
northern Michigan late this afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across the outlook area later this
afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Gale force winds are expected to develop on Whitefish Bay and
possibly within the northern Lower Lake Michigan and Lake Huron
nearshore waters Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.