Gale Warning 19, NWS Gaylord, MI

116 
WHUS73 KAPX 180215
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1015 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

LMZ341-342-344>346-181015-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0019.200418T1700Z-200419T0000Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1015 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kt and highest waves around 10 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI, Sleeping Bear 
  Point to Grand Traverse Light MI, Norwood MI to 5NM West of 
  Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay, Seul Choix 
  Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge and Manistee to Point 
  Betsie MI.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-181015-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.200418T1200Z-200419T0400Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
1015 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-181015-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.200418T1200Z-200419T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1015 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>349-181015-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.200418T1200Z-200419T0400Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1015 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt 
  to Alabaster MI, St Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque 
  Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National 
  Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

513 
WHUS73 KAPX 180719
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

LMZ341-342-344>346-181530-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0019.200418T1700Z-200419T0000Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
319 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 45 kt and highest waves around 10 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI, Sleeping Bear 
  Point to Grand Traverse Light MI, Norwood MI to 5NM West of 
  Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay, Seul Choix 
  Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge and Manistee to Point 
  Betsie MI.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-181530-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.200418T1200Z-200419T2300Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
319 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 5 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>348-181530-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.200418T1200Z-200420T0400Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
319 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 5 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay 
  National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-181530-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.200418T1200Z-200419T0400Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
319 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-349-181530-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.200418T1200Z-200419T0400Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
319 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

845 
WHUS73 KAPX 181923
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

LMZ341-342-344>346-190300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200419T0300Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 11 
  feet.

* WHERE...Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI, Sleeping Bear 
  Point to Grand Traverse Light MI, Norwood MI to 5NM West of 
  Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay, Seul Choix 
  Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge and Manistee to Point 
  Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-190400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-200419T0400Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-190400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-200419T2300Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-349-190400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-200419T0400Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>348-190400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-200420T0400Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
323 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay 
  National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

132 
WHUS73 KAPX 190206
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1006 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

LMZ342-344>346-191100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200419T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-200419T1600Z/
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1006 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 9 
  feet.

* WHERE...Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including 
  Little Traverse Bay, Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse 
  Light MI, Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI and Manistee 
  to Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ341-190315-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200419T0300Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
1006 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

LHZ345-190315-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-200419T0400Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
1006 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LMZ323-191100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-200419T1600Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
1006 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ349-191100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-200420T0400Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1006 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-191100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-200419T2300Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1006 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>348-191100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-200420T0400Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1006 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 5 
  feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace to False Detour Channel 
  and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay 
  National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
259 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

...Upward Temperature Trend Continues...

High impact weather potential: Gusty southwest winds to bring
potential for gales and minor lakeshore flooding on Saturday.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Broad troughing remains centered across
much of northeast NOAM, with northern Michigan laying in the
southern extent of this trough axis. Embedded shortwave racing
east into the western Great Lakes, with attendant surface
reflection and surge of warm/moist advection bypassing us well to
the south (resulting in a late season accumulating snow event
across southern Michigan and the northern Ohio Valley). Our
weather much more quiet, with just some passing high clouds tied
to that southern system and the development of high based and
relatively shallow cumulus. As one would expect heading through
the second half of April with increasing amounts of sunshine,
overhead chilly airmass showing definite signs of moderation,
allowing temperatures to punch up into the 40s early this
afternoon (still, these are several degrees below normal for this
time of year).

Not a terrible amount of change expected through the start of the
weekend as overhead troughing remains stubborn to yield. Lead wave
exits rapidly stage right this evening, with secondary and sharper
shortwave digging into mean troughing expected to propel another
cold front across our area Saturday night.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature/cloud trends and
addressing the threat for a few light rain showers/gusty winds on
Saturday.

Details: Any cumulus expected to dissipate quickly this evening,
leaving behind mostly clear skies through at least early Saturday
morning. Don't think we will get quite as chilly tonight as the
last few nights, with a slight tightening of the pressure gradient
keeping things a bit more mixed, especially late tonight as
southwest winds develop. Expect lows to bottom out in the 20s and
lower 30s, likely recovering some as we head into the early
morning hours. Mid and high clouds will be on the increase
Saturday as that earlier mentioned cold front approaches from the
northwest. Low levels will be awfully dry, but may saturate just
enough to allow a few sprinkles/light showers to reach the surface
across eastern upper Michigan by later in the day. Dry weather
expected to continue for areas south of the big bridge until
Saturday evening. Perhaps bigger story for Saturday will be the
return to near normal temperatures as gusty southwest winds
overspread the region...with winds easily gusting over 25 to 30
mph during the afternoon, locally higher along the immediate Lake
Michigan coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

Primary Forecast Concerns: Gusty winds, precip Saturday night/Sunday
AM

Pattern Synopsis:

Upper-level troughing will pivot down across the Great Lakes on
Saturday night through Sunday while a separate shortwave quickly
advances across Texas into the southern Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, high pressure across the eastern CONUS will depart over the
Atlantic Sunday as a cyclone progresses NE across Quebec, swinging a
cold front through northern Michigan late Saturday night/early
Sunday AM

Forecast Details:

Precipitation associated with the aforementioned cold front/trough
is expected to be ongoing across northern portions of the forecast
area Saturday night. Despite air temperatures mainly in the upper
40s, some elevated, very marginal instability (around 200 J/kg
MUCAPE) could exist overnight into Sunday morning. Stronger winds
aloft creating bulk shear values above 40 kts along with some
veering with height could provide some support for storm
organization, but any severe threat appears to be very low at this
time. Heavier downpours with a rumble of thunder is what's expected,
mainly across NW lower and eastern upper. Cooler temperatures Sunday
morning could result in some flakes of snow for some across the
area, but little to no accumulation is expected. Lingering gusty
winds around 30 mph are also possible Saturday night with any
downward momentum transfer of 40-50 kt winds at 925/850 mb, despite
an inversion just above the surface. Precipitation chances should
end Sunday afternoon after the cold front moves through, dropping
high temperatures on Sunday down into the low to mid 40s for many in
northern Michigan. Higher pressure builds in behind the front,
largely muting precipitation chances until the arrival of our next
system Monday night. This should make for a sunny afternoon on
Sunday before cloud cover increases from the NW Monday afternoon and
evening. While precip may begin later Monday afternoon, discussion
of this system will be confined to the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

Primary Forecast Concerns: Precip Monday night into Tuesday

A fairly impressive trough is expected to move through the Great
Lakes Monday night into Tuesday as a separate shortwave progresses
across the far SW CONUS into Texas. Strong divergence/ascent
provided aloft will support a cyclone near 990 mb that is expected
to move eastward just south of James Bay through Tuesday. An
associated cold front looks to swing through northern Michigan
Monday evening/Monday night, bringing the next main chance of precip
to the region. While northern lower looks to mainly see rain, the
possibility for some snow cannot be ruled out. Eastern upper could
see accumulating snow beginning Monday evening given the chance that
temps drop below freezing with the frontal passage. However,
confidence in details regarding precip type and amounts will
increase over the weekend as Monday nears. Otherwise, additional
precip is possible heading into the weekend after this system
passes. Highs on Tuesday could be nearly 20 degrees below average
behind the passing cold front as many places across northern
Michigan could struggle to get above 40 in the afternoon. Highs are
expected to warm back up close to seasonal averages - mid 50s - by
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

VFR conditions through the taf period, with high based cu this
afternoon giving way to mostly clear skies tonight. Light winds
tonight become gusty out of the southwest Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

Light winds this evening become southwest and start to
increase overnight, becoming quite gusty on Saturday in advance of a
cold front that crosses Saturday night. Widespread advisory gusts
are expected Saturday, with gale force speeds anticipated over much
of Lake Michigan. The arrival of the cold front will bring a chance
at rain showers late Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday
night. Winds become northwest and remain gusty at times behind this
front for later Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday
     night for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday
     night for LMZ323.
     GALE WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-
     322.
&&

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
302 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-181200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
302 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Minor lakeshore flooding is possible along the eastern upper
coastline of northern Lake Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-181200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
302 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Gale force winds are expected across much of Lake Michigan
Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening. Please see the
latest marine headlines for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.