Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
554 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

Impactful weather: Continued lowland and river flooding, as well as,
lakeshore flooding over portions of the Lake Huron coastline.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Low pressure was dropping south into the Ohio river valley early
this morning, taking with it, the stronger and persistent low to mid
level theta-e advection, DPVA and upper jet dynamics, that were
responsible for the heavy rain totals over the last couple of days.
The deeper moisture was lagging behind a little while weaker
shortwave energy was still wrapping around the deep closed low in
IL. Thus, we've seen some remnant scattered light rain, but the
brunt of this system is over. The heavy rainfall has produced some
road closures due to water covering the road, as well as, lowland
and river flooding, for which warnings are currently in effect.
Upstream, mid level ridging was seen through the plains, bending
over the top of the closed low into MN. Clear skies were seen in
this area, but clouds remained prominent throughout MI.

The low pressure system will continue to make it's way into the SE
states through tonight, which will result in the departure of all
forcing mechanisms today, as well as the deeper moisture. Any
remnant light rain will end this morning, and skies will start to
decrease in cloudiness. This continues into tonight, and skies are
eventually going to turn pretty clear by the overnight hours. The
pressure gradient will remain tight enough through this evening,
resulting in the continuation of some lakeshore flooding over
portions of the Lake Huron coastline.

While the weather is winding down, the recent heavy rain will keep
flooding issues going. See all the latest river and flood products
for the details.

Highs today will be warmer today, in the low to mid 60s, but cooler
around the Lake Huron coastal areas. Lows tonight will largely be in
the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...Drying the Next several Days...

High Impact Weather Potential...Fire danger may be elevated on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes...Wednesday, as the
high moves into New England, there is a little question if the dry
air continues into the region. Models are in better agreement with
the dry air pushing into the forecast area, with the GFS backing off
of the moisture that was supposed to continue to stream into the
region for the day. Now all of the models have dry air streaming in
to the region through Thursday morning. Then as the sfc ridge begins
to move north, the moisture from the Atlantic begins to move into
the region. Temperatures look to warm into the lower to mid 70s on
both days. Wednesday looks interesting with the min RH dropping into
the mid to upper 20 percent range with the winds running 10-15 mph.
We could get into an elevated fire danger situation, but with the
rain of the past 24 hours, will have to talk to the wildfire
management agencies to determine if that's warranted. With the
moisture beginning to return on Thursday, the RH looks to be a
little more elevated, so that the fire danger will lower a bit.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms are possible Saturday
through Monday with warm temperatures, and afternoon impulses move
through the region.

Extended (Friday through Monday)...Friday, moisture continues to
move into the region, however, the GFS disagrees with the ECMWF/CMC
idea of the 500 mb low to passing through the Ohio Valley, instead
of in S Lower. The GFS idea would produce some showers. However,
will lean toward the ECMWF/CMC idea with dry weather for Friday and
Friday night. Saturday, the GFS continues showers/thunderstorms
while the CMC and ECMWF shows more scattered showers. Will allow for
thunder at the highs that day get to around 80F. Sunday, the pattern
turns into a dirty ridge with impulses kicking off showers and
thunderstorms. Highs again look to be around 80F in N Lower and mid
70s in E Upper. Monday, a weak cold front looks to try to pass
through the region. This looks like the showers and thunderstorms
would be a more organized as the system moves through. The ECMWF
makes it looks like the line would be somewhat broken. That wouldn't
be surprising, but since it is 7 days out, will leave the current
pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 554 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

Low pressure will slide down through the Ohio River Valley today,
eventually settling into the SE states through Wednesday. This will
take the deeper moisture and remnant pockets of light rain south of
nrn Michigan this morning. This will leave rain-free weather for
this afternoon through tonight. There may be some MVFR CIGS still
around MBL for a few more hours, otherwise, conditions will be VFR
for the TAF period. Skies will gradually lose the cloudiness,
eventually becoming mostly clear tonight. Gusty easterly winds will
persist into early this evening, as the pressure gradient will
remain relatively tight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

Low pressure will slide down through the Ohio River Valley today,
eventually settling into the SE states through Wednesday. Meanwhile,
the air mass in northern Michigan will gradually dry later today
through tonight, leading to an extended period of rain-free weather
for the remainder of the work week. The pressure gradient will
remain relatively tight through tonight, but hi-res data suggests
advisory level E/ENE winds will only last through early this
evening. This is due to the fact that warming low level temperatures
increases overlake stability for the remainder of the night, which
would suppress wind speeds below advisory levels. Higher pressure
and a looser pressure gradient then gradually builds in over the
Great Lakes through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until noon EDT today for MIZ024-030-036-
     042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
742 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       AU GRES                 44.05N 83.69W
05/19/2020  E8.10 INCH       ARENAC             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            48-HOUR STORM TOTAL.

0627 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EAST TAWAS              44.28N 83.48W
05/19/2020  M7.43 INCH       IOSCO              MI   MESONET

            48-HOUR STORM TOTAL. MESONET STATION CW9703 EAST TAWAS.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
745 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       STERLING                44.03N 84.02W
05/19/2020  M7.20 INCH       ARENAC             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            48-HOUR STORM TOTAL.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
754 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE LUZERNE            44.64N 84.24W
05/19/2020  M1.04 INCH       OSCODA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020

...THESE ARE 24 HOUR TOTALS ENDING AROUND 8AM AND DO NOT INCLUDE
RAINFALL FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PERIOD...

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW WURTSMITH AIRFIELD 44.45N 83.40W
05/19/2020  M1.94 INCH       IOSCO              MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KOSC OSCODA - WURTSMITH AFB.

0815 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE WEST BRANCH        44.25N 84.18W
05/19/2020  M2.30 INCH       OGEMAW             MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KY31 WEST BRANCH.

0810 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW WELLSTON          44.23N 85.96W
05/19/2020  M1.30 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW0269 WELLSTON.

0802 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S SID TOWN            44.38N 83.60W
05/19/2020  M4.03 INCH       IOSCO              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION SCKM4 SILVER CREEK.

0801 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW ALGER             44.13N 84.12W
05/19/2020  M2.96 INCH       ARENAC             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AGRM4 ALGER.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW WELLSTON          44.23N 86.04W
05/19/2020  M1.30 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-MN-6 WELLSTON 3.9 WNW.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N WELLSTON            44.26N 85.94W
05/19/2020  M1.18 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WELM4 WELLSTON TIPPY
            DAM.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HOUGHTON LAKE           44.30N 84.76W
05/19/2020  M2.02 INCH       ROSCOMMON          MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-RS-3 HOUGHTON LAKE 0.7
            SSE.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W EAST TAWAS          44.28N 83.50W
05/19/2020  M3.27 INCH       IOSCO              MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-IC-3 EAST TAWAS 0.8 WSW.

0759 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE WELLSTON           44.22N 85.94W
05/19/2020  M1.49 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WLLM4 WELLSTON.

0753 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE ROSCOMMON COUNTY  44.35N 84.67W
05/19/2020  M1.99 INCH       ROSCOMMON          MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KHTL HOUGHTON LAKE - ROSCOMMON
            COUNTY AIRPORT.

0746 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE BARTON CITY       44.66N 83.59W
05/19/2020  M1.07 INCH       ALCONA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION BCYM4 BARTON CITY.

&&

...THESE ARE 24 HOUR TOTALS ENDING AROUND 8AM AND DO NOT INCLUDE
RAINFALL FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PERIOD...

BERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
836 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSE NATIONAL CITY     44.17N 83.69W
05/19/2020  E7.60 INCH       IOSCO              MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            48 HOUR STORM TOTAL.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
855 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW SMITHVILLE         44.49N 85.21W
05/19/2020  M1.47 INCH       MISSAUKEE          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

MG