Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1140 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs, deteriorating weather conditions will continue
into Tuesday morning as an upper level storm system tracks across
the southern high plains. KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA will be impacted.
Expect precipitation to begin as light rain, transitioning to a
mix of light rain and light snow, and then eventually all light
snow overnight through Tuesday morning. Greatest snowfall
accumulation is forecast to occur at KGUY, followed by KDHT, with
KAMA expected to have minimal snowfall accumulation at this time.
In addition, gusty north winds may result in areas of blowing
snow. Improving weather is expected beginning late Tuesday morning
through the afternoon, leading to VFR conditions at the TAF sites
by mid to late afternoon.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1018 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

UPDATE...
Based on the latest model trends offered by the 00Z NAM, HRRR,
and other hi-res models plus early panels of the 00Z GFS, we have
expanded the Winter Weather Advisory west to include the western
Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Texas Panhandle from 06Z tonight
until 18Z Tuesday. Will also have to watch any southward trends to
the accumulating snow. If this happens, parts of the southern
Texas Panhandle may need consideration for inclusion in the
Winter Weather Advisory. The new WSW bulletin plus updated public
products have been issued.

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PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 604 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, deteriorating weather conditions are expected
this evening into Tuesday morning as an upper level storm system
tracks across the southern high plains. KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA will
be impacted. Expect precipitation to begin as light rain,
transitioning to a mix of light rain and light snow, and then
eventually all light snow late tonight into Tuesdqy morning.
Greatest snowfall accumulation is forecast to occur at KGUY,
followed by KDHT, with KAMA expected to have little to no snowfall
accumulation. Conditions will improve beginning late Tuesday
morning through the afternoon.

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PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...
The H5 shortwave trough that will be bringing precipitation to the
area has now positioned over the Four Corners Region down through
the New Mexico Boot Heel. As the shortwave trough gets to this
side of the Rocky Mountains a leeside low will develop over the
area. High PoPs are in the forecast across the area with PoPs
increasing in coverage from northwest to southeast starting around
6 PM and picking up by midnight. Warm temperatures today with a
weak cold front associated with the system will be a challenge to
get snow accumulations as temperatures at the surface are
expected to linger around 32 degrees. This is making it difficult
to determine how much snow will actually accumulate.

Areas in the north may see rain change to snow between midnight
and 3 AM. While areas further south like Amarillo may not see any
snow until between 6 AM and 8 AM Tuesday. Most of the models are
in agreement on the best chances for temperatures cold enough for
snow accumulations, remains in the central to eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle to include the two rows of Texas Counties south of
there. As of right now the greatest potential for accumulations
will be in Beaver county Oklahoma and north into Kansas, where up
to 5 inches with isolated higher amounts are possible in Beaver
County. Other counties west and south of Beaver County that are
in a Winter Weather Advisory have the potential to see between 1
and 3 inches of accumulations.

As the surface low passes to the southeast winds on the northwest
quadrant of the low are expected to become northerly with speeds
around 30 mph with higher gust by 6 AM in the morning. Winds are
expected to stay northerly tomorrow with speeds 20 to 30 mph in
the west and 15 to 25 mph in the east.

Hoffeditz

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night through Sunday...
The extended period is much quieter with very little going on. The
low pressure system that brings us snow tonight will push east out
of the area. Wednesday will see northwest flow aloft turn back to
the southwest by nightfall. The next upper level low digs into the
southwest US and looks to bowling ball across the El Paso, San
Angelo/southern Lubbock areas. This will leave the Panhandles dry
for the next round with just a wind shift on Friday as the cold
front pushes through. The temps will be warmer on Friday though as
things rebound from the snow being gone. Temps will continue
increasing to above climo over the weekend. We may see temps come
into the low 70s in some places.

Beat

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.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Roberts...
     Sherman.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1030 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-281200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1030 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight.

Light to moderate snow accumulations are expected tonight across
the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect for this area through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Accumulating snows will end by around noon Tuesday across the
Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect until noon CST Tuesday for this
area. Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 5 inches are
anticipated. The overall highest total snowfall accumulations
are expected across the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the far
northeast Texas Panhandle, where isolated total amounts to 6
inches may occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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