Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
700 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

.AVIATION...
Scattered storms in the NW Panhandles will likely congeal into a
complex that will head SE toward AMA. How well it holds together
and whether it reaches AMA is the million dollar questions as
this is about where models show is weakening and dissipating. MVFR
or even IFR conditions are expected with the storms however was
not too agressive with that in TAFs. Some storms will become
strong to severe, although the severe threat will decrease late
in the evening. Large scale outflow boundary will lead to a
temporary wind shift to the NW that will be difficult to forecast
timing on. Another round of afternoon and evening storms is
expected tomorrow, however the east southeast progression out of
NM and CO may be less which means DHT will have the greatest
threat.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 217 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night

Same 'ole same 'ole is kind of the story as isolated storms are
again possible this afternoon but better chances move in from ern
NM a bit later. Instability and shear values are not expected to
be significantly different from those seen yesterday (750-1250
J/kg MLCAPE/effective shear 20kts) and therefore storm intensity
should be fairly similar to what we saw yesterday and last night.
Shear values are a touch better, so could see a bit more of a
multicell situation with some cold pool generation possible. Given
easterly upslope flow and a bit more shear in ern NM, do expect
coverage over there to be better and therefore storm probs in the
western zones are a bit higher than yesterday as those storms
move in after 6 or 7 PM. Unfortunately for those from roughly
Amarillo to Pampa to Canadian southeastward, chances for
significant rain are pretty low as any convective system will
likely be dissipating as it moves east.

Monday looks fairly similar to today with highs in the 90s and
storms moving in from NM late.

Simpson

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
Tuesday the upper level ridge over the Four Corners will setup yet
another day for storms across the western Panhandles. At the same
time, an upper level closed low will be forming off the West
Coast. The upper level ridge will push east through Thursday as
the upper level closed low begins to enter the western coast along
California. Through the remainder of the extended period, the
ridge will sit over the southeast CONUS while the upper level low
gets wrapped around the ridge and absorbed into the main flow
across the northern CONUS. Winds aloft will become southerly at
this time, which sets up the pattern to cut off any chance for
monsoonal moisture across the forecast area.

Storms Tuesday are expected to be isolated in nature with mountain
convection firing in the afternoon hours and attempting to make it
into the western Panhandles. The NAM is hinting at some backing
winds during the afternoon hours Tuesday with a potential for
upslope flow that could create a few pop up showers/storms along
the Caprock. Instability parameters are sufficient enough to
support a few strong storms with MLCAPE values anywhere between
500-1000 J/kg, but shear is the lacking component with values
around 10-20 knots. Dewpoints are not likely to get above the mid
to upper 50s, so storms will not have a ton of surface moisture to
work with. Main threats at this time would be gusty winds.

High temperatures through the long term will remain steady in the
90s with low temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The NAM is
an outlier with a potential weak surface cold front pushing south
across the Panhandles Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This
could dip low temperatures into the 50s, but winds will quickly
turn back to the south Wednesday and temperatures will rebound
quickly to the 90s that afternoon.

Rutt

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

88/88

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
226 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-201200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
226 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across mainly the
northwest half of the combined Panhandles this afternoon and
tonight. A few storms will have the potential to become strong to
possibly severe, with large hail and gusty winds the primary
hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across most of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, and then
across southern and western sections of the area Wednesday
evening. Most storms that develop are forecast to remain below
severe levels, though an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be
ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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