Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
120 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...This Afternoon through Tomorrow Night.
An upper level short wave trough will move southeast from
southeast Colorado and across the Panhandles this afternoon and
evening. This short wave trough will work on the instability and
moisture across the Panhandles. Storms will likely be scattered to
start off with across the northwest CWA. But as we go through the
late afternoon into the early evening we should see the storms
get more organized and more widespread. Model soundings suggest
that hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gust to around 70
mph will be possible with some storms. The more widespread
coverage of storms should be over the southeast half of the area
mainly southeast of a Beaver to Amarillo line. If the storms can
get organized into a line early this evening, then wind will be
the main threat for the southeast Texas Panhandle. The majority of
the thunderstorms should be southeast of the CWA by 9 pm.
However, some models do want to break out additional sub- severe
thunderstorms across the eastern Texas Panhandle in association
with any outflow boundary that may move back to the west.

On Friday, Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across the northern
CWA late in the afternoon and evening.  These storms will be
conditional on whether we can hit our convective temperature or
not.  The north will also be the most removed from the building
upper ridge that will be expanding across the area.  Highs on Friday
will again be well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
Long term forecast begins Saturday with an upper ridge over TX/OK
and an upper trough roughly over southern NV. Expect this trough
to quickly translate northeastward over the Rockies. Resulting lee
surface trough over NE CO will lead to a southerly breeze and
another hot day across the Panhandles. Best forcing for ascent
associated with this trough should pass to our north, so not
expecting any precipitation at this time. Small chance some storms
fire over the Sangre de Cristos and make their way east, but
model soundings suggest CIN will be too great across our west for
any storms to survive the trek.

Sunday and Monday should feature more of the same as strong winds
over the Rockies continue, leading to persistent lee troughing over
E CO. As the jet axis slides eastward, Monday will likely see the
western Panhandles tap into more of a westerly component to the
surface winds. Where this occurs, resulting lower RH values due to
the downslope orientation of these winds may lead to fire weather
concerns. Do not expect any precipitation either day due to a lack
of moisture.

Next western trough looks to move eastward for Tuesday. GFS/EC
suggest this trough will push a cold front south through the High
Plains, reaching our CWA during the afternoon and evening hours.
This will give us relative relief in temperatures, with highs only
in the 80s and low 90s for both afternoons. While the operational
GFS is hinting at some precipitation with this frontal passage, EC
and all available GEFS members remain dry, so have kept PoPs low.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs.
Thunderstorms may affect all TAF sites late this afternoon into
the early evening. Have gone ahead and added a tempo group at each
site. Cigs and visibilities may get down into the MVFR range with
the thunderstorms. VFR conditions are expected to prevail after
the thunderstorms go by. Winds will be locally strong and gusty
near the thunderstorms. Otherwise, southerly gusty winds will slow
to around 10 knots tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Lee surface troughing across E CO will set up a decent surface
pressure gradient across the Panhandles Saturday, Sunday, and
Monday. This will lead to breezy winds, with 20 foot winds out of
the south of 15 to 25 mph Saturday and Sunday and 20 foot winds of
similar speed out of the southwest Monday afternoon. Afternoon
minimum RH values will generally be 15 to 25 percent Saturday and Sunday
and, with the downslope component to the winds leading to
additional drying, 5 to 25 percent Monday afternoon. Lowest
values will be across the west. Elevated to critical conditions
will be possible across the northwest Saturday and Sunday and
across the entire western Panhandles Monday.

Ferguson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  98  68  95  68 /  10   0  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  65 100  70  98  70 /  50  20  20   0   0
Boise City OK              61 100  67  96  66 /   5  20  20   0   5
Borger TX                  67 103  71 100  71 /  30   5  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              64 103  68  99  68 /   0   0  10   0   5
Canyon TX                  64  99  67  95  67 /  10   0   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               66  98  69  95  68 /  50   0   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 60 100  66  97  66 /   5  10  20   0   5
Guymon OK                  63 101  69  98  69 /   0  20  20   0   0
Hereford TX                63 100  67  96  66 /  10   0   5   0   0
Lipscomb TX                65 100  70  98  70 /  60  20  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   65  98  69  96  68 /  50   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                65  98  69  96  69 /  70   0   5   0   0
Wellington TX              66  99  69  97  69 /  80   0   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Palo Duro Canyon.

OK...None.

&&

15/77

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
252 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-050800-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
252 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across the Panhandles. Some storms
could be severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail possible.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the majority of the
Panhandles through 10 PM this evening.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon today where
high temperatures around 105 degrees are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Oklahoma and northern
Texas Panhandles Friday afternoon and evening. At this time, the
probability for severe weather during this time period is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed after 2 PM this afternoon.

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