Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
602 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, showers and tstms are focusing east of the
terminal sites as of this writing, and have opted not to mention
for this fcst cycle. Winds will diminish by around sunset. A cold
front is fcst to move into the OK and nw TX Panhandles briefly on
Sunday before stalling. Additional showers and tstms are expected
to develop again Sunday afternoon. However, low confidence in
timing and location precludes mentioning this far out in time.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.
For tonight, the dryline was oriented across the eastern OK
Panhandle southwest to near KAMA to east of Hereford, extending
south southwest from there as of this writing. TCU along the
dryline suggests mid level cap is weakening and tstm development
is anticipated soon across roughly the eastern half of the fcst
area, and a Severe Tstm Watch has been issued by the SPC effective
until 03Z tonight. Pops were fashioned in this manner with slgt
chc to chc values through the evening hours, with non-mentionable
values from 06Z through 12Z Sunday. With storms that become severe,
large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards due to
a highly unstable atmosphere, MLCAPE values near 4000, sufficient
moisture, some deep layer shear, and passage of a minor upper
level shortwave trof.

For Sunday and Sunday night, an eastward moving upper level
shortwave trof, a southward moving cold front, sufficient moisture
and atmospheric instability, and the presence of a dryline suggest
the potential for more showers and thunderstorms with greater
areal coverage Sunday afternoon and night. Have utilized NBM pops
durg these time periods, which seem plausible given the progged
scenario. Some storms may become severe Sunday afternoon and
evening, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.

Andrade

FIRE WEATHER...Rest of Today through Sunday night.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon into early this evening across the western OK Panhandle
and the northwest TX Panhandle due to 20 foot southwest winds of
20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph along with minimum
relative humidity values around 8 percent. In addition, this area
is where the best overlap of RFTI values of 4 to 6 occur with the
most volatile fuels based on WFAS ERC percentiles. Spotty critical
fire weather conditions will likely occur in the far western
Texas Panhandle and north central Texas Panhandle and central
Oklahoma Panhandle, but these areas have a better mix of green
fuels and are not expected to see the same duration or magnitude
of higher RFTI values. RFTI today is mainly driven by low RH
values around 8 percent west of a dryline. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect until 8 PM CDT this evening for the western OK
Panhandle and the northwest TX Panhandle. Elevated fire weather
conditions are also forecast to continue across the central OK
Panhandle, the north central TX Panhandle, and the southwest TX
Panhandle until 8 PM CDT this evening as well. Elevated fire
weather conditions may develop Sunday afternoon across the far
southwest TX Panhandle.

Andrade

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday
Long term can be summed up by several rounds of on and off
rain/thunderstorm chances next week. This could lead to some flood
potential and severe weather, but some of those finer details are
still uncertain at this point given the upper level pattern.

We start next week off with a large trough centered over central
parts of the CONUS...which also happens to be the right side of a
developing Omega block centered over the western CONUS. On
Monday, the trough axis is just west of the region, allowing for
some ascent aloft with small embedded vorticity maxima's passing
over all day. We could have rain ongoing all day. Our
thunderstorm chances are not that great given the weak lapse rates
(skinny CAPE) with forecast soundings that resemble a moist column
as PWATs reach around 1.00" or higher. We could have some decent
rainfall amounts, especially out east where ensemble members all
paint QPF of 1.00" plus. In other words, there is a darn good
signal for rainfall in our east/southeast Monday and Monday
night.

By Tuesday, the pattern aloft is in full block mode with an omega
block to the west, and a rex block to the east over the Atlantic.
This pattern allows the upper cut off low to just meander over
Texas for several days. Depending on the model, there is some
discrepancy on where the center is, but in general its over Texas
to some degree. There are numerous embedded vorticity maxima's
rounding this cutoff low. There will likely be ongoing rainfall
over Texas for several days, but not sure how much the Panhandles
will be impacted. Our east would be favored for any rainfall
during this stretch next week. A lot of uncertainty given this
upper level block pattern. The Panhandles could certainly miss out
on a lot of rainfall coverage. We have seen sort of a flip flop
in the forecast already with the blend of models changing its tone
with PoP forecast in the extended. We have gone much drier
overall across the forecast area, with only the far east slated
at this point for rain showers. We will have to keep evaluating
the data as it comes in.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-240845-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered severe storms possible today for the central and
eastern Panhandles. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for
these areas.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon into early this evening mainly across the western
portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. A Red Flag Warning
has been issued for the far northwestern Texas Panhandle and
western Oklahoma Panhandle from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon through Friday
across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Severe
storms are possible on Sunday with damaging winds and large hail
being the primary hazards. In addition, slow moving thunderstorms
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall which may result in
flooding concerns on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this evening.

Spotters should relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated to critical fire weather conditions today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             BALKO                   36.63N 100.68W
05/23/2020  E1.00 INCH       BEAVER             OK   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA2000321

BEAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             4 SW LAKE MCCLELLAN     35.18N 100.92W
05/23/2020  E0.75 INCH       GRAY               TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA2000322

BEAT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>