Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
259 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
...Severe weather likely today...

* Synoptic Overview: A weak shrtwv in westerly flow aloft will
  traverse the area this afternoon. At the sfc, a dryline has
  sharpened from around Perryton to Skellytown to Goodnight with
  low to mid 60 dewpts common east of it. Expect convection to
  start after 3 PM with severe weather likely.

* Mesoscale: The aforementioned dewpts combined with sfc temps now
  reaching the 80s have contributed to MLCAPE values pushing 3000
  J/kg. Wind shear isn't overwhelmingly impressive but is
  sufficient for organized convection. Decent turning with height
  and some speed shear are evident through about h5 before
  westerly winds weaken a bit above that. This weakness will
  likely eventually contribute to an outflow induced cluster/line
  storm mode.

* Threats: The question of the day is how long we can keep an
  isolated storm or 2 around as hail CAPE is impressive and
  significant hail, possibly up to baseball size, will be possible
  in supercells. Once storms become outflow dominant, the main
  hazard will of course shift to severe winds. Current thinking is
  that the area of cu analyzed near Pampa could become *that*
  supercell talked about earlier and will keep the closest eye on
  the McLean, Pampa, Canadian, Wheeler, Miami sort of area. T/Td
  spreads/LCLs should limit the tornado threat but there is enough
  low level turning that maybe "Panhandle magic" can overcome the
  dry boundary layer and get a brief tornado on the ground.
  Elsewhere, it might be tough to get anything more than low end
  severe hail and wind gusts.

* Timing & Location: Though any supercells will be relatively slow
  moving (right movers should move ENE at about 20kts), expect
  outflow to eventually win out and get everything out of the
  Panhandles by around 8 PM or so.

Simpson
&&

.LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Tuesday Night...
Thursday morning may start off with some more fog and low clouds
for the area in the wake of storms. These look to clear out by
early morning as winds turn more southwesterly and bring dry air.
Models aren't really developing any storms tomorrow but with a
short wave passing overhead in the mid-levels in conjunction with
forecast soundings showing plenty of instability, the possibility
exists that if a storm can get going, it would be severe. For
this possibility, have added a 15 pop to the far eastern TX
Panhandle.

Friday a cold front looks to surge into the Panhandles starting in
the early morning hours. The front will bring a chance for storms
with it. Models prog the front to push just to our southern CWA
border and stall out. Models have some difficulty in resolving
what to do with the front overnight Friday into Saturday due to
the upper level trough moving through to the south of the area. As
the trough pushes east of the area in central Texas, northwest
flow aloft takes hold. The dry line looks to setup in eastern NM
and the western TX Panhandle. Saturday looks to have storms form
along the line and move eastward.

By Sunday, the high pressure in the mid levels moves into western
TX and holds on through mid week next week, keeping the area dry.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  89  56  83  57 /   0   0   0   5  10
Beaver OK                  57  86  57  79  56 /   0   0  10  10  40
Boise City OK              50  83  52  76  52 /   0   5   5   5  30
Borger TX                  58  92  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              52  91  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  55  90  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   5   5
Clarendon TX               58  91  60  86  59 /  20   0   0  10  20
Dalhart TX                 47  87  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  53  86  55  78  54 /   0   0   5   5  30
Hereford TX                53  89  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                59  90  59  82  58 /  30  10   5  10  30
Pampa TX                   57  90  57  83  57 /   0   0   0   5  20
Shamrock TX                58  92  62  87  60 /  50  20   5  10  30
Wellington TX              59  93  63  89  60 /  60  20   5  20  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

&&

9/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
310 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-140900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
310 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe storms expected to develop across the central and
southeast Panhandles today. Strong damaging winds, large hail,
and a possible tornado can't be ruled out.

Critical Fire Weather conditions expected today across the
northwest Panhandles. Winds 20 to 25 mph expected with low
relative humidity values.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Saturday across
portions of the Panhandles. Can't rule out severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical Fire Weather conditions Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
336 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

TXZ014-015-019-020-132130-
Gray TX-Wheeler TX-Donley TX-Collingsworth TX-
336 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER...
SOUTHEASTERN GRAY...NORTHWESTERN COLLINGSWORTH AND DONLEY COUNTIES
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Lelia Lake, or 8 miles northeast of Clarendon, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarendon, Shamrock, Mclean, Howardwick, Hedley, Lelia Lake, Twitty,
Dozier, Lela, Greenbelt Lake and Samnorwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 10078 3504 10100 3540 10044 3537 10020
      3514 10012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 229DEG 28KT 3501 10076

LG