Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
653 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...
Two main concerns in the aviation forecast for the next 24 hours.
The first comes over the next few hours as thunderstorms sweep
eastward across the Panhandles. An isolated storm currently east
of HRX should slip just south of the AMA airspace. A broken line of
storms extending from CVS to north of DHT is pushing east. The
northern section of this line only contains sporadic lightning -
have thus elected to only carry a mention of rain with VCTS in the
DHT and GUY TAFs over the next couple hours. More significant part of
the line may hold together and approach AMA between 02 and 04z.

Second aviation concern is the development of stratus overnight
tonight. Guidance is suggesting widespread LIFR conditions. With
same guidance overly pessimistic about last night's stratus
compared to reality, have gone with stratus but did not elect to
put LIFR conditions into the TAFs.

Ferguson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 259 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020/

SHORT TERM (through Tuesday night)...

Main thing for the short term is the thunderstorm potential
through tonight. Otherwise, shower/thunderstorm activity should
push east and end by tomorrow. Small chance for some lingering
activity across the east Tuesday/Tuesday night, but these chances
are very low at this time.

We continue to watch a surface low progged to develop over
southeastern Colorado today. The low/trough will slowly spread
south and eventually east by Tuesday night. There also happens to
be a pseudo warm front/baroclinic zone draped across the forecast
area extending from the surface low in SE Colorado. As upper
level energy gets ejected out over the forecast area, we may have
enough upper level support and surface lift to get some
thunderstorms to develop. However, lapse rates are pretty weak,
and updrafts may have a hard time maintaining given the weak
upper level winds. Cannot rule out a small threat for severe
weather given MUCAPE around 500-800 J/kg and 0-6km shear around
40 knots. That said, do not think we will have widespread severe
weather. We may have enough ingredients for one or two severe
storms, but these would be on the lower end for severe for mainly
wind and hail. Forecast soundings indicate better chances for
showers and some rumbles of thunder versus any severe weather.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will vary widely over the forecast
area from southwest to northeast with the boundary intersecting
our area again tomorrow. Look for warmer temperatures tomorrow.

Guerrero

LONG TERM...
An upper level short wave trough will approach the Panhandles from
the southwest on Wednesday.  This trough looks like it will pass
over the Panhandles during peak heating.  Models are in better
agreement now that a dryline will likely hold up just off of the
Caprock Wednesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and ahead of the dryline Wednesday afternoon in our eastern
areas.  There looks to be plenty of CAPE to get storms to go severe.
The shear is not the greatest, but it is sufficient to keep updrafts
going.  These thunderstorms should move quickly off to the east and
southeast of our area.  However, the dryline may hold up a little or
retreat some in the evening, so will linger pops in the east for this
possibility.

Thursday should be a dry day behind the short wave trough.

The flow aloft will then turn more to the southwest ahead of another
short wave trough headed this way from the southwest U.S.  Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to return Friday and Saturday in
association with this short wave trough.  A cold front moves through
the Panhandles on Thursday and then it is expected to dissipate to
our south and low level moisture is expected to increase in the east
ahead of a developing surface low over the southwest Texas
Panhandle. If the moisture can get back and if enough instability
can be realized, then severe storms will be possible Friday evening.

It looks like at this point the north and east will be favored for
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as the short wave moves across
and east of our area.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

77/23

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>