Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
259 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

.SHORT TERM (through Tuesday night)...

Main thing for the short term is the thunderstorm potential
through tonight. Otherwise, shower/thunderstorm activity should
push east and end by tomorrow. Small chance for some lingering
activity across the east Tuesday/Tuesday night, but these chances
are very low at this time.

We continue to watch a surface low progged to develop over
southeastern Colorado today. The low/trough will slowly spread
south and eventually east by Tuesday night. There also happens to
be a pseudo warm front/baroclinic zone draped across the forecast
area extending from the surface low in SE Colorado. As upper
level energy gets ejected out over the forecast area, we may have
enough upper level support and surface lift to get some
thunderstorms to develop. However, lapse rates are pretty weak,
and updrafts may have a hard time maintaining given the weak
upper level winds. Cannot rule out a small threat for severe
weather given MUCAPE around 500-800 J/kg and 0-6km shear around
40 knots. That said, do not think we will have widespread severe
weather. We may have enough ingredients for one or two severe
storms, but these would be on the lower end for severe for mainly
wind and hail. Forecast soundings indicate better chances for
showers and some rumbles of thunder versus any severe weather.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will vary widely over the forecast
area from southwest to northeast with the boundary intersecting
our area again tomorrow. Look for warmer temperatures tomorrow.

Guerrero

&&

.LONG TERM...
An upper level short wave trough will approach the Panhandles from
the southwest on Wednesday.  This trough looks like it will pass
over the Panhandles during peak heating.  Models are in better
agreement now that a dryline will likely hold up just off of the
Caprock Wednesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and ahead of the dryline Wednesday afternoon in our eastern
areas.  There looks to be plenty of CAPE to get storms to go severe.
The shear is not the greatest, but it is sufficient to keep updrafts
going.  These thunderstorms should move quickly off to the east and
southeast of our area.  However, the dryline may hold up a little or
retreat some in the evening, so will linger pops in the east for this
possibility.

Thursday should be a dry day behind the short wave trough.

The flow aloft will then turn more to the southwest ahead of another
short wave trough headed this way from the southwest U.S.  Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to return Friday and Saturday in
association with this short wave trough.  A cold front moves through
the Panhandles on Thursday and then it is expected to dissipate to
our south and low level moisture is expected to increase in the east
ahead of a developing surface low over the southwest Texas
Panhandle. If the moisture can get back and if enough instability
can be realized, then severe storms will be possible Friday evening.

It looks like at this point the north and east will be favored for
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as the short wave moves across
and east of our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                49  76  56  88  56 /  60   5  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  39  61  50  89  57 /  60  10  10  20  10
Boise City OK              41  69  50  87  50 /  50   5  10   0   0
Borger TX                  48  75  57  92  58 /  60   5  10   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              48  80  54  90  53 /  60   5  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  50  79  56  89  55 /  60   5  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               50  75  57  89  59 /  70  10  10  30  10
Dalhart TX                 43  77  50  87  48 /  40   5  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  40  64  51  89  53 /  60   5  10   0   0
Hereford TX                50  82  56  89  54 /  50   5  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                43  64  53  89  59 /  60  20  10  20  20
Pampa TX                   46  71  56  89  58 /  60  10  10  20  10
Shamrock TX                48  72  56  89  60 /  80  20  10  30  20
Wellington TX              50  75  56  89  61 /  80  20  10  30  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

24/15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
253 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-120800-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
253 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible through tonight. Some
thunderstorms could be severe with large hail and damaging wind
gusts being the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday across the
eastern Panhandles. Thunderstorms will then be possible again on
Friday and Saturday across much of the Panhandles. Thunderstorms
on Wednesday could become severe with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
539 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

TXZ016-017-112315-
Randall TX-Deaf Smith TX-
539 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RANDALL AND
SOUTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 539 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Hereford, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hereford, Dawn and Buffalo Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 10252 3500 10250 3507 10211 3475 10213
      3475 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 272DEG 23KT 3492 10243

Rutt

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>