Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
318 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
...Severe weather possible today...

* Synoptic Overview: Upper level trof over the Four Corners region
  will provide lift and west/southwest flow over the Panhandles
  this afternoon/evening. An already moist atmosphere south of a
  nearly stationary front from the southwest corner to the
  northeast TX Panhandle corner, will aid in easier convective
  initiation since the mid levels cleared out quickly this
  morning. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to result, with a
  decent chance for storms to be severe. Hail, and damaging wind
  will be the main threat, but heavy rain could lead to localized
  flooding, and isolated tornado/landspouts will be possible in
  the southeast.

* Mesoscale: MCS in southeast OK could provide outflow boundary to
  the southeast Panhandles, which could either help/hinder storm
  chances. Shortwave ejecting out of the Four Corners, with the
  aid of a surface trof should provide ample lift along and east
  of the stationary front to aid in storm development. Along this
  boundary there will be favorable wind profiles for landspouts.
  But the very poor helicity values in play in the Sfc-1 and Sfc-3
  struggle to support tornadic thunderstorms. Effective shear in
  the 30-40kt range would support some rotating storms, maybe even
  some organized storms. 18z AMA sounding indicates nearly no
  surface cap,but still a weak/moderate ML cap in place. ML CAPE
  values over 1000 J/kg would support strong to severe storms.
  Added lift from the right entrance region of the 250mb jet will
  continue to favor better storm development in the southeast.
  Elevated storms currently ongoing west of the Panhandles in NM
  and will track with the PVA wave into the western Panhandles
  over the next few hours.

* Threats: Large hail up to 2" will be possible with storms, as
  well as wind gusts up to 70 mph. Localized flooding issues will
  be possible as well as PWAT's in the southeast are in the
  1.50-2.00" range. So very heavy to torrential rain could be seen
  with some storms. As noted in the mesoscale section, isolated
  tornado/landspouts still possible due to low LCL's and
  interacting with localized boundaries from the stationary front,
  and possibly other storms.

* Timing & Location: Storms are firing up now in the eastern
  Panhandles with a couple storms moving in from eastern New
  Mexico. Storms expected to continue through 10pm-midnight
  tonight.

* Summary: Severe storms favored for this evening, with the
  greatest chances to the southeast, but all areas are favored to
  see some type of severe weather. All hazards are in play, but
  the tornado threat is more favored to be landspouts.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday night...

By Wednesday night the upper level shortwave trough will move off
to the east over northern Texas and Oklahoma. This will carry the
shower and thunderstorm activity from today and tomorrow out of
the combined Panhandles Wednesday night. H5 high pressure will
build in over CA, NV, AZ, UT, CO, and NM, with the eastern fringe
over the FA. The FA will experience mostly northerly to northeast
flow aloft as the area becomes dry until about next Monday night
when the next system moves in.

Temperatures will be near normal to slightly above normal on
Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 60s
until around Monday night when next upper level trough digs down
into the area. There are disagreements between models on the exact
timing and path of this trough and associated surface cold
fronts. Have stuck with the NBM for PoPs and Temps in the extended
forecast. This is when chance PoPs return to the Panhandles as
well as an introduction to below normal temperatures behind a cold
front. Sometime between Monday night and Tuesday night there
looks to be a pretty stout surface cold front possible with very
breezy winds behind the front. Still too far out to know if any
wind highlights will be needed.

Hoffeditz

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR/IFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours, with KAMA
having the most impacts. That will not remove KDHT and KGUY from
any threats. It's just a better chance for KAMA. Storms expected
to develop around the Panhandles over the next 6 hours, and if
storms impact the terminals, we expect that storms will bring
cig's down to 2kft, maybe a bit lower, and vis down to 5SM. Right
now only going TEMPO at KAMA, as KDHT and KGUY are lower
confidence and will be dealt with via amendments. Overall, cigs
look to be around 7-10kft when storms not around as we cloud up
later. Winds will be northwesterly for KDHT and KGUY, with a
southwest wind and KAMA transitioning to northwest. Outflow's from
storms in TAF site vicinities can always create a temporary wind
shift, away from the prevailing winds.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  83  59  92  60 /  60  50   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  62  85  60  92  59 /  50  20   0   0   0
Boise City OK              57  84  57  87  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  64  87  62  95  63 /  60  40   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              61  86  59  94  59 /  50  40   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  61  83  58  92  59 /  60  50   5   0   5
Clarendon TX               65  80  62  89  63 /  70  60   5   5   5
Dalhart TX                 57  84  56  89  55 /  40  20   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  59  84  59  89  57 /  40  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                62  84  59  93  59 /  50  40   5   0   0
Lipscomb TX                63  84  62  92  61 /  70  30   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   63  83  61  92  61 /  60  50   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                66  81  63  89  63 /  80  60   5   5   5
Wellington TX              67  83  64  92  64 /  70  60  10   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

89/36/89

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
355 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-020900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
355 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight. Some
thunderstorms may become severe with large hail and damaging winds
the main threat. Isolated tornado and or landspout will be
possible this evening. Some storms may produce very heavy rain,
and there could be some localized flooding issues with storms.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of the
southern and eastern Panhandles until 10 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible for the southern Panhandles Wednesday
morning, and are not expected to return again until Monday
evening. Chances for thunderstorms reaching severe limits are
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this evening across the Panhandles.

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