Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms remain in the area this evening, with the
bulk of the storms to the south and east of KAMA, KDHT, and KGUY.
As the evening goes on, the scattered nature of the storms will
continue until 02-03Z, before completely dying out for the
evening, at least near the terminals. Other than the
thunderstorms, ceilings will be VFR and winds will remain out of
the south and southeast. Occasional gusts to near 25 knots will
occur, other than near thunderstorm outflows.

Fox

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 206 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night...

A thunderstorm has developed near Happy along a northward moving
outflow boundary. More thunderstorms may form along this outflow
boundary during the rest of the afternoon as many places have hit
their convective temperature in this area.  More thunderstorms are
expected to move into or form across the northwest CWA later this
afternoon along a lee-side surface trough.  Storms across the
northwest CWA are then expected to track southeast and should
increase in coverage as they move across the Panhandles. A few
storms could become severe this afternoon and tonight with damaging
winds the main threat. However, some large hail can not be
completely ruled out if a storm can rotate.

Models have come down on the chances for showers and thunderstorms
for Saturday and Saturday night.  This might be because the models
are picking up on some subsidence behind a short wave that moves
across the Panhandles overnight.  If this subsidence turns out to be
as strong as the models say, then Saturday and Saturday night could
be fairly quiet.  At this point, am not willing to take chances of
rain out of the forecast given the abundant instability the models
are forecasting.  If the downward motion is not strong enough to
keep thunderstorms from forming, then they could tap into the good
instability and some could become severe.

Highs on Saturday are expected to be cooler than today as upper
heights fall with the upper level ridge moving to the west.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...

Synopsis: Medium and long term guidance is in reasonable
agreement with high pressure becoming anchored over the Desert Southwest
with troughing over the eastern CONUS. This will support
northwest to northerly flow over the Panhandles with occasional
shortwave perturbations moving southeast out of the Rockies and
adjacent plains. A cold front will move out of the northern and
central plains towards the MS and OH Valleys Sunday through
Monday, with a surface ridge in its wake. This will help maintain
a moist upslope flow across the Panhandles through Sunday, before
drier, more stable air invades from the northeast on Monday. With
no major changes expected with the overall synoptic pattern
through the extended, we expect storm chances off and on, mainly
driven by subtle shortwaves and mesoscale boundaries in the area.
Temperatures should be near average for most of the extended
period.

Target: The main focus for this extended package is on Sunday,
when parameters are looking favorable for a few strong to severe
storms and potentially some localized flooding. Storm coverage
should be at least isolated to scattered Sunday afternoon, but
will depend on the strength of the cap and on any mesoscale
features that may be left over from Saturday. The best chance for
storms will come Sunday evening and overnight when models are
picking up on a possible MCS that forms in the higher elevation of
southeast CO then moves south/southeast through western and
central parts of the Panhandles. This MCS feature will likely form
as low level upslope flow increases in a very moist environment,
further supported by subtle PV anomaly in 500mb flow. Dew point
across the Panhandles are progged to be well in the 60s with
uncapped MLCAPE values possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg by 00z Monday
(NAM, NAMNest). Low and mid level lapse rates are also steep,
with DCAPE values exceeding 1200 J/kg across the area. The main
limitation for storm organization with be shear, as winds are
expected to be quite weak from 700mb to 400mb. Even with the lack
of speed shear, there is enough directional shear to support 25 to
30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, which will be enough to support
multicell and perhaps transient supercell structures. Any storms
that remain discrete in the afternoon and early evening could
produce some large hail and damaging winds. Hail larger than golf
balls certainly can't be ruled out, especially if any storm
becomes mesocyclonic. The wind potential may increase in the late
evening with the leading edge of MCS, especially with any bowing.
However, the low level jet is not all that impressive Sunday
evening, so this may limit MCS maintenance some.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Palo Duro Canyon.

OK...None.

&&

14/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
702 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-151215-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
702 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight. A few storms may become severe
with damaging winds and large hail mainly across the Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible through Thursday night. Some of the
storms may become severe with large hail and damaging wind the
main threats, especially on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
602 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

TXZ009-013-014-142330-
Gray TX-Roberts TX-Carson TX-
602 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARSON...
NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kingsmill, or 8 miles west of Pampa, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pampa, Skellytown and Kingsmill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 10073 3540 10116 3559 10123 3563 10115
      3563 10109 3566 10108 3576 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 252DEG 19KT 3553 10111

LG

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