Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected throughout most of the 00Z TAF period.
Introduced VCTS conditions for all TAF sites starting around
03/04Z and continuing through around 07Z before thunderstorms
dissipate and move east of all sites. Sct to bkn mid and high cigs
will continue throughout the remainder of the TAF period. If
thunderstorms move directly over TAF sites, erratic winds will be
the main threat. Winds overall will be variable around 5-10 kts
becoming more southerly at 10-15 kts going past 15Z Thursday to
the end of the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020/

SHORT TERM...This afternoon through tomorrow tonight

Synopsis: Severe storms are possible across mainly the western tier
of Panhandles counties this evening. Storms will likely struggle to
remain severe as they try to move east of the I-27/US287
corridor.

Mesoscale: Modest instability is promoting storm development in the
Enchanted Circle of NM.  This convection is expected to increase in
coverage and work its way east this evening...eventually congealing
into a cluster/MCS. Storms will likely reach peak intensity in far
ern NM possibly into the western tier of Panhandles counties
before running into an area of substantial MLCIN of 150-250 J/kg
(depending on the model). This increased CINH as we move past
sunset may coincide with the cold pool beginning to outrun the
cluster/line and this would likely spell doom for severe
convective chances east of the first tier or maybe 2 of wrn
Panhandles counties. Places like Texline, Dalhart, and Boise City
probably have the best chances to see severe weather tonight. As
for the Dumas/Amarillo/Canyon corridor, the best chance for severe
weather may be if storms make it just far enough before
collapsing just to the west and blowing a last gasp outflow. Areas
further east are unlikely to see severe weather tonight.

Threats: Winds up to 70 MPH would be the main concern though some
hail cannot be ruled in mainly the NW parts of the area.

Timing: Expect the main cluster of storms to move into the NW parts
of the combined Panhandles around or after 7 PM and storms will
likely become sub-severe by midnight. Isolated to scattered
lingering showers/storms may remain after midnight.

Tomorrow: After starting off with a few low clouds, skies should
become partly cloudy and temps will warm again into the 90s to
around 100.  Palo Duro Canyon will again be flirting with a Heat
Advisory.

Simpson

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
High pressure stretches across the southern CONUS with zonal flow
and embedded trough patterns in the northern CONUS. With high
pressure aloft, temperatures are to continue to be hot with highs
ranging in the mid and upper 90s to 105. Surface winds will be
out of the south southwest most of the period, which help drive
the temperatures to near 100. Palo Duro Canyon may need a heat
advisories this weekend with temperatures skirting around 105 to
107.

Monsoonal moisture from Arizona will get wrapped up in the high
pressure system and bring some mid-level moisture to the northwest
Panhandles. Low level moisture is limited with dewpoints in the
upper 40s to 50s through the weekend and into early next week.
There is a chance for storms mainly in the northwest Panhandles
through the extended period. Storms are likely to fire off the
higher terrain in southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico
where northwest flow aloft is present along with some shortwaves
coming off the mountain ranges. However, the chance for storms
remains uncertain with limited moisture and instability playing a
key role in storm initiation.

Rutt

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

29/15

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORSE                   36.06N 101.47W
07/14/2020                   HANSFORD           TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT WITH PICTURES OF DAMAGE TO GRAIN
            BINS AND FENCES WITH TWO LARGE TREES DOWNED

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA2000508

FERGUSON