Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
703 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, some potential exists for showers and tstms
to affect KDHT and KAMA early this evening before storms dissipate
with loss of daytime heating. Amendments possible at those two TAF
sites. Another round of showers and tstms is expected to develop
later Sunday afternoon over eastern NM and sern CO, then begin
heading east and southeast towards the OK and TX Panhandles late
Sunday afternoon, with the greater threat for showers and storms
expected to be just after this fcst cycle.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 432 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020/

DISCUSSION...
For the immediate short term, will continue earlier issued Heat
Advisories and Excessive Heat Warning until expiration at 02Z this
evening based on current observations. Latest surface map shows a
weak cold front draped across the northwest and far northern Texas
Panhandle with a surface trof of low pressure extending from the
southwest Texas Panhandle northeast to near KPYX. A decent cumulus
field has developed along this sfc trof axis and is clearly seen
on vsbl imagery. Convective temperatures have been reached with
a little bit of CIN remaining. Have maintained the theme of
previous fcst pckg with slgt chc pops across the eastern OK
Panhandle and much of the TX Panhandle through this evening, with
non-mentionable values after 1 AM tonight. Storms that break
through the mid level warm layer will have the potential to become
strong to severe, with damaging winds the primary hazard, followed
by some hail.

For Sunday and Sunday night, a fairly well defined upper level
shortwave trof is progged by short range models to rotate
southeastward across the southern high plains around the northeast
periphery of the upper level ridge of high pressure centered
across southern AZ and southern NM. Expect showers and tstms to
initially develop over the higher terrain of northeast NM and
southeast CO, then track southeast across the fcst area beginning
late Sunday afternoon and continuing into Sunday night. Some storms
will have the potential to become severe late Sunday afternoon and
Sunday evening, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. The greatest threat for severe storms is expected to be
across the northwest zones up against the higher terrain in sern
CO and northeast NM. Slgt chc to chc pops offered by the NBM were
incorporated into the grids.

The upper level ridge of high pressure is progged to meander
around the area through most of next week. The steering flow
supports showers and storms that initially form over sern CO and
ern NM to move east or east southeast across at least parts of the
area mainly during the evening hours from next Monday through
next Saturday. NBM pops through Wednesday night appear to have
caught on to this upper level flow pattern and were utilized, with
slight chc values on NBM edged a bit further east into central
zones from Thursday through Saturday given the medium range model
progs. Above normal temperatures will continue through next Saturday.

02

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...
     Donley...Gray...Hutchinson...Oldham...Potter...Randall...
     Roberts...Wheeler.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Palo Duro Canyon.

OK...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
357 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-121100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
357 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Dangerous heat is expected across the southern half of the Texas
Panhandle with high temperatures of 105 to 109 degrees expected.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM CDT for this area.
In addition, high temperatures above 110 degrees are expected at
the Palo Duro Canyon State Park, where an Excessive Heat Warning
remains in effect through 9 PM CDT.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening
across the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle as well as parts of the Texas
Panhandle. If storms develop, they will have the potential to
become strong to severe, with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night through Friday night
across much of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Some thunderstorms
late Sunday afternoon and evening may become strong to severe, with
large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Storms that develop
Monday through Friday are expected to remain below severe levels at
this time.

High temperatures of 105 to 109 degrees are forecast on Monday and
Tuesday across mainly the southern Texas Panhandle, with Heat
Advisories likely during this time period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

02

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