Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Amarillo, TX

930 
WWUS84 KAMA 272014
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
314 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

OKZ001-TXZ001-006-011-016-280200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200328T0200Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-Hartley-Oldham-Deaf Smith-
314 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN
PANHANDLES...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron. In Texas...Dallam... 
  Hartley...Oldham and Deaf Smith.

* 20 Foot Winds...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index..3 to 6.

* Timing...Until 9 pm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

407 
WWUS84 KAMA 280143
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
843 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

OKZ001-TXZ001-006-011-016-280245-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200328T0200Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-Hartley-Oldham-Deaf Smith-
843 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN PANHANDLES...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to end around 9 PM
this evening as the 20 foot south to southwest winds diminish
slightly and relative humidity values increase through the
remainder of the evening and overnight hours.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1258 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will mainly be out of the west southwest and will be
in the 10-20kt range through about 15z. Thereafter, expect 20-30kt
winds through about 02z, with gusts up to 40kts at times. Skies
will be mostly cloudy with cigs around 20kft. Skies will begin to
clear after 00z from west to east across the Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 154 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020/

SHORT TERM...
Wind will be the story through Friday.  Currently, a warm front was
lifting northeast across Beaver County.  Gusty southwest winds are
expected to spread across this area behind the warm front. Southwest
winds will slow a little with sunset, but believe they will still be
gusty.  A low level jet along with some moisture return could spark
a shower in our far northeast after midnight.  At this time, believe
that any rain will fall to our northeast, so have not mentioned any
rain for tonight. Southwest winds are again expected to increase
into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts on Friday. Winds may
even get close to wind advisory criteria in the northwest as a
surface strengthens over southeast Colorado by afternoon.  High
temperatures on Friday are expected to be cooler than today as upper
level heights fall as an upper level trough approaches from the
west. There will be an outside chance of a shower in Cimarron County
Friday night as the bottom side of this trough drags across this
area, but most of the rain will stay to the north of our CWA.

LONG TERM... As the main upper level low continues to move east
across Kansas and away from the Panhandles, zonal west to
southwest flow will continue through the coming weekend into the
first half on Monday. High temperatures Saturday will be near
average and increase to above average for Sunday and Monday.

Going into the afternoon hours on Monday, a neutral tilted H500
trough will work east across northern New Mexico. Out ahead of the
main trough axis, there will be some low level moisture being
tapped from the Gulf of Mexico with sfc-800 hPa south to
southeasterly flow. In-conjunction with the H500 trough, a sfc low
will develop in SW Kansas with a pseudo dry-line associated with
aforementioned sfc feature. Best chance for good low level
moisture returns will be roughly along a line from Amarillo to
Guymon points east as displayed by latest blended guidance.
Thunderstorms are possible for areas east of the dryline, in which
some storms could be strong. Latest 26/12Z model and numerical
guidance coming in is trying to race the dryline east pre-
convection which would dry out most of the region. Will have to
watch closely as we get closer to Monday afternoon.

Once we go past Monday evening, conditions will improve as the
Panhandles return to more westerly H500 flow with conditions
drying out. Going towards the end of the long term forecast
period, a second perturbation in the mean H500 flow advecting to
the east and may generate more thunderstorm chances. Chances
remain low with no model consensus at this time. Temperatures are
expected to remain slightly above average through next week.

Meccariello

Fire Weather... Critical fire weather conditions will be possible
in the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas
Panhandle for Friday. Relative humidity value may only get down
into the 15 to 20 percent range, but winds are expected to be
around 30 mph sustained in this area with higher gusts. These
winds will combine with locally higher ERC percentiles to bring
the possibility of critical fire weather conditions to this area.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for much of the
rest of the Panhandles.

Relative humidity values may be lower Saturday and Sunday, but winds
are expected to be much slower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                41  62  35  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  41  62  33  69  43 /   5  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              34  59  29  65  37 /  10  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  43  65  36  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              38  65  32  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  39  64  33  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
Clarendon TX               45  65  37  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dalhart TX                 34  61  28  67  38 /   5   5   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  39  61  32  69  41 /   5  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                37  63  32  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                45  65  37  70  46 /   0   5   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   42  64  36  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   5
Shamrock TX                46  67  38  71  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
Wellington TX              47  69  38  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
     the following zones: Dallam...Hartley...Moore...Sherman.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
     the following zones: Cimarron.

&&

89/15/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-271100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast to
develop this afternoon into early this evening evening. Critical
fire weather conditions expected across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle due to southwest winds
of 25 to 30 mph with higher gusts along with minimum relative
humidity values around 15 percent. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for this area until 9 PM CDT this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Critical fire weather conditions may develop again Friday afternoon
into early evening across western sections of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles due to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with
higher gusts along with forecast minimum relative humidity values
of 15 to 20 percent.

Thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and night across the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Chances for thunderstorms reaching
severe criteria remain low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated and critical fire weather conditions through this
evening and Friday.