Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Amarillo, TX

983 
WWUS84 KAMA 231945
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
245 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

OKZ001-TXZ001-006-240100-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200524T0100Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-Hartley-
245 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron. In Texas...Dallam and 
  Hartley.

* 20 Foot Winds...Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 
  mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...4 to 6.

* Timing...Through 8 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1110 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

.AVIATION...06Z TAF...

VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period for all three
terminals. Winds will be out of the south to southeast mainly 10
kts or less, through about 18Z today. After 18Z winds will pick
up to 20 kts out of the SW with gust up to 30 kts. There will be a
chance for thunderstorms east of a dryline after 18Z, primarily
for the eastern to southeastern third of the combined OK/TX
Panhandles. As of right now it is looking like none of the TAF
sites will be impacted as they will most likely be west of the
dryline.

Hoffeditz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 605 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the 00Z TAF period for all three
terminals. Winds will be out of the south mainly 10 kts or less
through about 18Z. After 18Z winds will pick up to 20 kts out of
the SW with gust up to 30 kts. There will be a chance for
thunderstorms east of a dryline after 18Z. However, as of right
now it is looking like none of the TAF sites will be impacted as
they will most likely be west of the dryline.

Hoffeditz

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 217 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night

Closed upper low and upper trough over the Great Basin region and
the southwestern states tonight through Saturday night will be a
trigger for convection by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening as perturbations track northeastward towards the forecast
area on southwesterly flow aloft.

In addition, surface low and sharpening dryline over eastern
Colorado southward across eastern New Mexico with a frontal
boundary from eastern New Mexico across the Texas South Plains and
eastward near the Red River Valley tonight through Saturday will
also be a focus for convection late Saturday afternoon and
evening. The frontal boundary is forecast to lift northward
Saturday as a warm front back into the Texas Panhandle as a
surface low and the dryline track slowly eastward over
southeastern Colorado into the western portions of the forecast
area by late Saturday afternoon. Convection likely to become
severe generally along and east of the dryline or roughly along
and east of a Guymon to Amarillo line. Convection likely to
weaken by 06Z Sunday or so as the dryline retreats back to the
west overnight Saturday night.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday
mainly across the western and central Oklahoma Panhandle and the
western and portions of the central Texas Panhandle or generally
along and west and north of a Guymon to Hereford line. Max RFTIs
are forecast to be around 2 to 5 across this area along with
minimum afternoon relative humidity values of near 8 to 15 percent
and 20 foot wind speeds of 20 to 25 mph with higher gusts from
the southwest. Plan on issuing a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday
for mainly the western portions of the Panhandles.

Schneider

LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)...

The long term can be described as an active pattern with multiple
chances of showers and/or thunderstorms, some of which could be
strong to severe. There is however some uncertainty as to some of
the finer details and those may need to be hashed out over the
coming days. We may see a stretch of rainfall that could lead to
flooding next week.

For Sunday, a lot will depend on where a surface low sets up and
associated dryline. There will be broad troughing over the western
CONUS with increasing large scale ascent over the region. There
will be ample CAPE, upper level energy, lifting mechanism, and
shear, so we will have a threat for severe weather on Sunday
afternoon and evening. These chances will be favored across
central/eastern parts of the Panhandles, and most likely along a
dryline and/or triple point. Those chances may also be influence
by tomorrow's convection and any residual boundaries or
atmospheric recovery.

By Monday, we start to see what appears to be a potential cut off
low in the works. This becomes more exaggerated by Tuesday as the
pattern aloft becomes very "blocky" with omega block over western
CONUS and possible rex block across eastern CONUS/Atlantic. Not
sure how much faith to put in the models at this point given the
pattern aloft. In general, most of the models have the cut off
low parked over Texas for much of next week. This could bring
excessive amounts of rainfall to Texas. How much of this will
impact the Panhandles is the biggest question. We could very well
end the month of May on a very wet note, especially eastern parts
of the forecast area. Many ensemble members paint at least an
inch of rainfall over the entire Panhandles by the end of next
week, with some members showing several inches. There is a
bullseye of 3 inches across the east for the mean precipitation
accumulation. Those values shouldn't be taken at face value
because a lot of uncertainty exists with that cut off low, but
there is a decent signal for rainfall next week in other words.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Hartley...Oldham.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron.

&&

36/89

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
749 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-231300-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
749 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday afternoon through
Thursday across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. If
storms become severe during these time periods, damaging winds
and large hail will be the primary hazards. In addition, slow
moving thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall
which may result in flooding concerns.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected midday
Saturday into Saturday evening mainly across the western portions
of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Southwesterly 20 foot winds
15 to 25 mph with higher gusts along with minimum afternoon
relative humidity values of 5 to 15 percent and receptive fuels
are expected on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated to critical fire weather conditions Saturday.