Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

665 
WGUS74 KAMA 261230
FFSAMA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
730 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

TXC195-357-261240-
/O.CAN.KAMA.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200526T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hansford TX-Ochiltree TX-
730 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN HANSFORD AND 
NORTHWESTERN OCHILTREE COUNTIES...

This warning was issued in error. Please disregard.

LAT...LON 3609 10128 3630 10128 3639 10096 3641 10089
      3620 10088

$$

Ferguson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs.
VFR conditions expected through the period at all sites. Winds,
initially northwesterly Tuesday morning, will veer through the
period before becoming light and variable late Tuesday night.

Ferguson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night.
WV satellite reveals longwave trough over the High Plains extending
southeastward over N TX and OK. A series of waves from NE NM into
central TX are seen in the cyclonic flow around the base of this
trough, with the most vigorous of these kicking off thunderstorms
across central TX. At the surface, post frontal airmass is in place
across the Panhandles, with temperatures mainly in the 40s.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, expect an upper low to cut off from the
main flow over N TX and slowly churn eastward. The eastward trend in
the upper low has reduced available wraparound mid level moisture
over the CWA. This will result in fewer clouds than previously
forecast. Despite the generally northerly winds, insolation should
allow temperatures to warm to near 80 for Tuesday and into the 80s
for Wednesday. Intuition given wind direction and partly cloudy
conditions would be to shade just a bit below consensus. However,
Monday saw high temperatures at or above guidance despite mostly
cloudy conditions and northerly winds. Given this puzzling outcome,
have stuck with NBM temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday until a
pattern can be discerned. Finally, given downward trend in moisture,
have kept mentions of rain out of the forecast.

Ferguson

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday

Closed upper low east of the Panhandles will continue to maintain
a northwesterly flow pattern aloft across the forecast area.
Perturbations in the northwesterly flow aloft over the central
Rockies may track south and southeast and approach the
northwestern portions of the forecast area Thursday. Convection
may track into the western Oklahoma and northwestern Texas
Panhandles during the day Thursday. An upper ridge begins to nudge
northeast from the southwestern states into the central and
southern Rockies and also the Panhandles by Thursday night into
Friday.

Upper high builds slowly eastward over the southwestern states
and the Four Corners region late this week and then across the
central and southern Rockies this weekend. The upper ridge begins
to break down this weekend with shortwave troughs developing over
the central and southern Rockies. This could allow for convection
to develop both Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening over
the higher terrain and mountains of the central and southern
Rockies which may track south and southeast across primarily the
western portions of the Panhandles or remain west of the forecast
area through the weekend. Will maintain a dry forecast Friday
through early next week for now as medium range model
inconsistency leading to a low confidence extended forecast.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

77/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
306 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-262200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
306 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the western
Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle on Thursday.
At this time, no severe weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Schneider