Wind Advisory 7, NWS Albany, NY

642 
WWUS71 KALY 091540
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1140 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013-014-100400-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0007.200409T1800Z-200410T0400Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, Old Forge, 
Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister, 
Wells, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, 
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, 
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, 
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, 
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, 
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, 
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, 
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, 
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, 
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, 
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
Amenia, Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls,
Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, 
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, 
and Londonderry
1140 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Bennington and western Windham Counties in southern
  Vermont, northwestern Connecticut, eastern New York and western
  Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

317 
WWUS71 KALY 092003
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058-061-063-082-100400-
/O.EXT.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200410T2200Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida, 
North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, South Egremont, 
Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, Dolgeville, 
Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, 
Gilboa, Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, and Caroga Lake
403 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. The
  winds may briefly subside tonight to 10 to 20 mph with gusts 30
  to 40 mph, but will quickly increase towards sunrise again.  

* WHERE...The eastern Catskills, Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital
  Region, Helderbergs, northern and central Taconics of eastern 
  New York, and the Berkshires of western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ001-013-NYZ032-033-041>043-059-060-064>066-083-084-VTZ013-014-
100400-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200410T0400Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Herkimer-
Hamilton-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Big Moose, Eagle Bay, 
McKeever, Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, 
Sabattis, Hoffmeister, Wells, Saratoga Lake, Saratoga Springs, 
Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, North River, Warrensburg,
Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, Granville, Catskill, 
Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, Kingston, 
New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, 
Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, 
Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, 
Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, Stamford, 
Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, 
and Londonderry
403 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut, the Lake
  George northern Saratoga Region, southern Adirondacks, mid
  Hudson Valley and southern Taconics of eastern New York and 
  Bennington and western Windham Counties in southern Vermont.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

565 
WWUS71 KALY 100148
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
948 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

CTZ001-013-NYZ032-033-041>043-059-060-064>066-083-084-VTZ013-014-
100300-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200410T0400Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Herkimer-
Hamilton-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Big Moose, Eagle Bay, 
McKeever, Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, 
Sabattis, Hoffmeister, Wells, Saratoga Lake, Saratoga Springs, 
Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, North River, Warrensburg,
Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, Granville, Catskill, 
Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, Kingston, 
New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, 
Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, 
Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, 
Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, Stamford, 
Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, 
and Londonderry
948 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts have diminished to below 45 mph for the rest of 
tonight.

$$

MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058-061-063-082-101000-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200410T2200Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida, 
North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, South Egremont, 
Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, Dolgeville, 
Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, 
Gilboa, Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, and Caroga Lake
948 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph tonight.
  Winds will quickly increase towards sunrise again with gusts
  near 50 mph during the day Friday.

* WHERE...The eastern Catskills, Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital 
  Region, Helderbergs, northern and central Taconics of eastern 
  New York, and the Berkshires of western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

823 
WWUS71 KALY 100806
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
406 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058-061-063-082-102100-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200410T2200Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida, 
North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, South Egremont, 
Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, Dolgeville, 
Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, 
Gilboa, Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, and Caroga Lake
406 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...The eastern Catskills, Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital 
  Region, Helderbergs, northern and central Taconics of eastern 
  New York, and the Berkshires of western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and isolated outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

795 
WWUS71 KALY 102001
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
401 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058-061-063-082-102115-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200410T2200Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida, 
North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, South Egremont, 
Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, Dolgeville, 
Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, 
Gilboa, Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, and Caroga Lake
401 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts will be below advisory levels through the rest of the
afternoon. Some occasional gusts around 35 to 45 mph will still be
possible through around 6 PM.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
139 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build in tonight, as clouds will
increase ahead of the next system approaching from the west.  A
strong low pressure system and its cold front will bring showers,
windy conditions and a chance of thunderstorms south of the Capital
Region tomorrow. Much colder temperatures and windy conditions will
persist Thursday night into Friday with accumulating mountain
snowfall over the western Adirondacks and southern Greens.  High
pressure builds in Friday night into the weekend with fair and cool
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 130 AM EDT...Plenty of binovc's with more clearing from
the immediate Capital Region and points southward into
Litchfield County, CT. So did improve the sky coverage a bit for
the next several hours. This too has an impact to the temp/dewpt
as dewpoint depressions are narrowing with light to calm winds.
Did add in the potential for some patchy fog, especially as
southerly winds increase with low level dewpoints expected to
climb a bit. As for PoPs/Wx, per upstream activity, seems we
will need to slow down the onset a bit which was done with this
update as well. Lowered min temperatures a couple degrees as
well per observational trends.

Prev Disc...
Clouds over the region are exiting and a zone of
clearing will track through tonight. The zone of clearing and
light winds will help temperatures fall to forecasted lows.
Convection and convective debris will spread over the region
later tonight and the leading edge of some rain will arrive just
before daybreak in many areas. Just some minor adjustments to
temperatures and sky cover through tonight. Previous AFD has a
few more details and is below...

The next potent short-wave will be approaching the western-
central Great Lakes Region, and the Midwest tonight. Clouds will
quickly thicken and lower with some isentropic lift ahead of
the warm front to the system bringing some light rain
predominately west of the Hudson River Valley prior to sunrise.
The winds will be light to calm early, but then start to
increase from the south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph shortly
before sunrise. The winds should be strongest funneling up the
Hudson Valley and in the confluent area of the Capital Region.

Lows temps will be challenged by the clouds thinning, but then
increasing. We tried to forecast mins close to the GFS/ECM/NAM
MOS blend and have the lows between 2-5 am. Expect mid and upper
30s over the higher terrain, and upper 30s to lower 40s in the
valley areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...A fairly dynamic wave and its associated cold front
will impact the region in the late morning into the early
afternoon. A deepening short-wave ahead the left exit region of
a mid and upper level jet streak will impact the forecast area.
Heights will be falling, and mid level lapse rates will be
steepening, as the sfc low deepens to 980-985 hPa lifting
north/northwest of Albany by 18Z. Some digging short-wave energy
will allow for the trough to become negatively tilted.

A couple of bands of showers and some thunderstorms could impact
the region. The latest HREFS, 3-km NAMnest, 3-km ARW-WRF, and
the 3-km HRRR are hinting at some elevated instability being
over the area ahead of the cold front. MUCAPEs are in the
100-300 J/kg range especially closer to KPOU and the I-84
corridor. We are concerned a lack of heating or destabilization
may inhibit deeper convection. The low-level winds are
impressive, but a low-level inversion seen on the model
soundings may inhibit strong or borderline severe winds making
their way to the sfc. We are in decent agreement with SPC with
the Marginal Risk grazing the southern 5 zones. We can not rule
out a rogue isolated severe. Basically locations south of the
Capital Region (We will break away these area in the HWO). We
kept a chance of thunder in these areas, and went with slight
chances over the Capital Region/Mohawk Valley/northern
Catskills. We think these cells may fire along the prefrontal
trough zone or just west of it. There may be a narrow cold
frontal rainband that follows with the burst of strong cold
advection. Some of the CAM's and HREFS show this. Some of the
wind gusts may flirt with wind advisory values, and bullet SPS
statements may account for gusts 40-45+ mph. PWATs briefly rise
above normal as some localized burst of rain are possible. Rain
rates may briefly be about a quarter inch per hour. Along the
triple point to the system, a secondary wave may form near Long
Island or southeast New England.

The trend will be for a dry slot to bust into the region from
the southwest by the mid to later portion of the afternoon with
brisk and cooler conditions. Expect west winds to increase to 15
to 30 mph with some gusts in the 30-40+ mph range. Max temps
will be in the upper 40s to lower/spotty mid 50s in the valleys,
and 40s to lower 50s over the mtns, but then fall off in the
afternoon in the cold advection. Some of the showers will
transition to snow over the western Adirondacks/southern Greens
/2000-2500 ft range/ before nightfall. The NAM momentum
transfer profiles indicate a few wind gusts may flirt with
advisory levels at Albany prior to sunset. We will continue to
monitor this.

Thu night...A chilly cyclonic flow sets up over NY and New
England, as a broad upper level trough will be over the Great
Lakes Region, southeast Canada, NY and New England. Two low
pressure centers will consolidate and merge near northern ME
with wrap around moisture impacting the forecast area. Some
moisture will be tapped from Lakes Ontario and Erie. We will
likely see westerly upslope snows persists most of the night
over the western Adirondacks/southern Greens with a few inches
(a few localized 3" or so amounts are possible). Rain may mix
with some wet snow in the Capital Region/Mohawk Valley towards
sunrise. A coating to a few tenths may occur on the grassy
surfaces in a few spots (better chance in the western Mohawk
Valley). The winds will remain blustery overnight, and should
crank up more towards day break. Lows will be in the mid 20s to
around 30F over the mountains, and 30-35F in the valley areas.

Fri-Fri night...Additional wet snow accums are possible Fri-Fri
night over the western Adirondacks, and southern Greens.
Another 1-3" may occur especially for the western Adirondacks.
It is unclear if this will be occur over a 12-hr period, but
some long duration tallies could be in a 2-6" before tapering
FRI evening, but this is over several periods. The best would be
northern Herkimer and extreme western Hamilton Counties. The
winds will be blustery at 15-30 mph with some gusts in the 35-45
mph range. We may have to place a wind advisory for some
locations on FRI (if widespread wind gusts of 46-57 mph are
expected), as the 970 hPa cyclone spins over New Brunswick. The
low-level wind fields are decent, but intervals of clouds with
slight or low chances of light rain showers in the valley areas
and the snow showers over the higher terrain /diurnal effects/
could prevent deeper mixing. We will leave this in the HWO for
now. The upslope and lake enhanced snow showers should diminish
Fri night with ridging building in from the south and west.
Below normal temps for FRI with lower to upper 40s in the
valleys, and 30s to lower 40s over the higher terrain. Expect
20s to lower 30s over Fri night with slowly diminishing winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday-Saturday night, lingering cold cyclonic flow may favor lots
of clouds to start Saturday, but rising heights and slow infusion of
drier air from the west should allow for some clearing in the
afternoon, especially in valley areas. Mainly clear and chilly for
Saturday night. Highs Saturday in the 40s to lower 50s, except 30s
across higher terrain areas. Lows Saturday night in the 20s to lower
30s, with some teens possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks.

Sunday-Monday, remnants of upper level low, currently located off
the southern CA coast, tracks across the southern Plains/MS Valley,
and eventually into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. Warm
conveyor belt associated with system should move into the region
late Sunday night into Monday, which is when highest probabilities
for rain are indicated. However, some showers may develop ahead of
the main forcing by Sunday afternoon, especially areas west of the
Hudson River, where slight chance to low chance PoPs are indicated.

There are some signals for briefly heavy rain to occur with this
system late Sunday night into Monday morning, especially across the
SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley into NW CT and possibly the
Berkshires, as a strong low level jet (at least +2-3 SD southerly
component at H925 and H850) and PWAT's of +1-3 SD cross this region.
Can not rule out a few convective elements as well. In addition,
with the strong low level jet, will have to watch for strong
southeast winds across typically favored areas (within strong
southeast low level flow regimes) of the Berkshires, Taconics and
southern Greens late Sunday night through Monday morning.

Highs Sunday mainly in the 50s for valley areas and 40s to lower 50s
higher terrain, with some potential for even warmer max temps if
thicker clouds/rain arrive later. Lows Sunday night mainly in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Monday highs could reach into the 60s in
portions of the Hudson Valley and western New England, with mainly
50s elsewhere.

For Monday Night-Wednesday, lingering showers could mix with snow
across higher terrain areas by Tuesday morning in the wake of the
storm system. However, main upper trough will remain to our west,
with slow advancement toward the east Tuesday into Wednesday. Models
exhibit uncertainty as to how this trough advances east, with some
suggesting a gradual approach of the trough with some showers of
rain/snow late Tuesday into Wednesday as it nears. Other models and
some GEFs members suggest the possibility of a more organized storm
system developing ahead of this trough within a strong low level
baroclinic zone remaining nearby. For now, have indicated chance
Pops for rain/snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday, but there is at
least some possibility for a a steadier/heavier period of
precipitation sometime in this time frame, some of which could be
snow as colder air aloft works into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR with just some few-scattered mid
level clouds around KGFL/KALB.  Although winds are currently light
or calm, they will start to pick up out of the south towards
daybreak to around 5 to 10 kts.  This will increase the low level
moisture and allow for some lower stratus clouds to develop/move up
from the mid Atlantic States.  Flying conditions will lower to MVFR
for all sites around sunrise and continue into the morning hours
with southerly winds increase to 10 to 15 kts.

Although it will start off dry, showers will increase across the
region from west to east after about mid morning.  The heaviest
showers will be just ahead of the cold front around midday and there
could be some rumbles of thunder for KPSF/KPOU as well.

Once the front passes in the mid-afternoon hours, winds will
immediately switch to the west and increase to around 20 kts.  Some
gusts over 30 kts will be possible for all sites.  Clouds should
decrease quickly for most sites, with VFR conditions returned by
evening hours.  Winds will slightly decrease for Thursday night, but
will continue to be gusty.  Most areas should be dry for Thursday
night, as any showers will north/west of the TAF sites.

Outlook...

Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts.
Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weak high pressure will build in tonight, as clouds will
increase ahead of the next system approaching from the west.  A
strong low pressure system and its cold front will bring showers,
windy conditions and a chance of thunderstorms south of the Capital
Region tomorrow. Much colder temperatures and windy conditions will
persist Thursday night into Friday with accumulating mountain
snowfall over the western Adirondacks and southern Greens.

The RH values will increase to 85 to 100 percent Thursday
morning, and will lower to 45 to 65 percent in the wake of the
strong cold front. The RH values will be in the 65 to 90 percent
range Friday morning.

The winds will be light and variable direction at 5 mph or less
early tonight and then will increase from the south to southeast
at 5 to 15 mph Thursday morning. The winds will shift to west to
southwest at 15 to 25 mph in the wake of the front with some
gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range. Gusty west winds will continue
Thursday night into Friday.

A widespread soaking rain will occur with the frontal passage
and surface low late Thursday morning into the afternoon. A few
thunderstorms are possible south of Albany.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected the next several days
and at least through the weekend.

High pressure will briefly build in through most of the night
time period with dry weather. However, a strong front will
bring more rain to the region on Thu. A quarter to a half inch
of rain is expected Thursday with locally higher amounts. While
this rainfall may cause some minor rises on rivers and streams,
no widespread flooding is anticipated.

Cloudy, blustery and cool weather, with more valley rain
showers and mountain snow showers are expected for Thursday
night through Friday night. Some light to isolated moderate
amounts of snow are possible for the western Adirondacks and
southern Green Mtns.

Although most of the weekend will be dry, more rain looks to
return for Sunday night through Monday. Another widespread
soaking rainfall will be possible.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/Wasula

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
1041 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

NYZ038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-091100-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Northern Fulton-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
1041 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Mohawk Valley, Greater
Capital Region, Lake George Saratoga Region, Helderbergs, Schoharie
Valley, and the norther Taconics of east central New York,and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms along a cold front
Thursday afternoon from the Mohawk Valley and the Capital District
south. Gusty winds cannot be ruled out within any heavier showers or
thunderstorms.

Across the higher elevations of the southern Green Mountains, rain
showers will change over to snow showers for late Thursday and
continue for Thursday night into Friday. A light to isolated moderate
accumulation of snow is expected at this time for areas above 2000
feet.

Westerly winds will be gusty on Friday across the region, with gusts
of 30-45 mph possible. If confidence increases for wind gusts
in the 46-57 mph range, then a Wind Advisory would be issued.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-091100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-
1041 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and the eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley
and southern Taconics of eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is chance for thunderstorms along a cold front early Thursday
afternoon. Gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out within any
heavier showers or thunderstorms. An isolated severe thunderstorm is
also possible.

Westerly winds will be gusty on Friday across the region, with gusts
of 30-45 mph possible. If confidence increases for wind gusts
in the 46-57 mph range, then a Wind Advisory would be issued.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ032-033-091100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
1041 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Herkimer and Hamilton
Counties in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Across the higher elevations of the western Adirondacks rain showers
will change over to snow showers Thursday afternoon and continue for
Thursday night into Friday. A light to isolated moderate
accumulation of wet snow is expected at this time. If widespread
moderate snow amounts are expected, then a Winter Weather Advisory
may be issued.

Westerly winds will be gusty on Friday across the region, with gusts
of 30-45 mph possible. If confidence increases for wind gusts
in the 46-57 mph range, then a Wind Advisory would be issued.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.