Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
634 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
As we welcome a new year, a strong cold front will cross the
region tonight. This front will be accompanied by rain and snow
showers, with a few snow squalls. In the wake of the frontal
passage, lake effect snow will set up and impact portions of the
Adirondacks overnight and through most of New Year Day.
Otherwise, brisk westerly winds with near seasonable
temperatures. Conditions slowly improve Wednesday into Thursday
as high pressure slides just to the south of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 5 pm, quick update to re-tool PoPs based on radar obs and
latest CAMS. Well defined snow squall approaching from the west
should reach Herkimer County in 20-30 minutes. This line has
produced quarter mile visibility upstream and is even producing
some lightning. Highest confidence in squalls resulting in
hazardous travel conditions is over the Mohawk Valley and
western Adirondacks. CAMs suggest this band breaks up as it
heads into the Hudson Valley this evening, but some filaments
may be strong enough to produce quick drops in visibility and
borderline squall conditions. Temperatures are marginal and
actually quite warm in the valleys, but we have seen snow
accumulate on roadways in the Syracuse area despite temps in the
upper 30s in advance of the squall. Given heavy enough rates,
travel difficulties are still a possibility. The time frame for
squall potential is now through around 11 pm. Refer to our
social media posts for more detailed timing information.

Previous discussion...

As of 230 PM EST...Rather impressive upper low was crossing Lake
Ontario with comma tail approaching the I81 corridor. Showers
and squalls are accompanying the cold front where some in-cloud
lightning has been detected via the NLDN. However, downstream
lapse rates and minimal CAPE are forecast to weaken a bit so
upstream line should weaken a bit and break up as suggested by
the HRRR/NAM3km hires reflectivity. We have already issued an
SPS to highlight the potential for snow squalls through this
evening. In the wake of fropa, combination of cold advection
(H850 temperatures only drop back to around -10C) and tight
gradient should allow for brisk conditions across most of the
region. Some upslope snow showers are expected as the attention
will be downwind of Lake Ontario. Lake Ontario temperatures were
near 42F (6C) and delta t/s climbing toward the mid teens for
conditional lake instability. A fairly uniform wind flow should
allow for bands of snow to make it inland into portions of the
Dacks. Inland penetration per CSTAR research suggests the lake
band snow can move inland with excess of 100+ miles overnight
and New Years Day morning. Previous forecast had a winter
weather advisory for lake effect snow and per the new guidance
and overview, we will not make changes at this time. Generally
3-7" of snow expected through New Years Day as we watch one more
short wave swing southeast across the state. This will likely
disrupt the band into multi bands and reduce inland extent.

Otherwise, variable cloud coverage with some snow showers or
flurries north of the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT as
temperatures will be near seasonable values for the start of
2020.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The last short wave will exit to our east by Wednesday evening
as lake effect, clouds and winds dissipate across the region.
Under increasing clearing skies, overnight lows will generally
fall into the 20s with the coldest values into the Dacks with
likely a fresh coverage.

Thursday, surface high sliding across the southern portions of
the nation will exit off the southeast coastline through
Thursday. This will allow for a return southerly flow with a
passage of a warm front. Cloud coverage will be the most
challenging as warm advection clouds may limit sun a bit north
of I90 and approaching system from the southwest may filter sun
across southern areas. So a partly sunny forecast at this time
as consensus MOS values all suggest above 40F for many valley
locations and 30s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long range period will begin with upper-level ridging and
surface high pressure remaining in place. The evening will begin
partly cloudy, but clouds will increase ahead of the next storm
system set to move into the region.

Low pressure is expected to form across the Lower Mississippi Valley
later Friday and track toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. This
would put Albany on the warm side of this system. There does not
appear to be the indication of a strong high to the north of this
system to keep the area cold; therefore, we expect precipitation to
be mainly rain. Depending on the arrival time of precipitation, some
locations could begin as a period of light snow or a wintry mix
Friday night and/or Saturday morning before changing to rain.

As the low then tracks eastward toward New England Saturday night
into Sunday, the arrival of colder air on the backside of this
system would lead to a changeover from rain to snow with perhaps a
light accumulation.

A brief break in precipitation is expected later Sunday into Monday
before an Alberta Clipper works toward the region. There remain
model differences with the timing and track of this system. However,
there is at least the chance for a few snow showers sometime Monday
into Tuesday.

In terms of temperatures, we will remain above normal through
Saturday before colder air finally returns to the region Sunday
through Tuesday with highs in the 20s to lower 30s and lows in the
teens and 20s, which would be right around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2320Z, a snow squall was located over the Mohawk Valley,
moving east around 30 mph. Models indicate this squall will fragment
as it pushes toward the terminals. However, a brief period of heavy
snow is possible 0030-0230Z at KALB, 00-02Z at KGFL, and 00-04Z at
KPSF as this activity works through the area. Temperatures are such
that there may also be some rain or graupel mixed in, especially if
the precipitation is lighter. Thunder has been observed with this
squall, but lightning activity has been trending downward, so TS was
not included. Brief periods of IFR or LIFR will be possible with
both ceilings and visibility in any heavier shower. Ahead of this
squall, there are some IFR/LIFR clouds around, and some
drizzle/light rain and snow showers.

After the snow showers move through, flying conditions are expected
to improve rather quickly to MVFR and VFR, with cloud coverage on a
diminishing trend through sunrise Wednesday. The clouds may expand
in coverage by the afternoon, but expected to remain at VFR levels.

Winds will be from the southwest to west at around 10 kt overnight,
with some gusts to 20 kt especially at KALB/KPSF. These wind
conditions will continue into the day Wednesday, with gusts perhaps
reaching 25 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Precipitation over the past few days has caused some rises on
rivers and streams. A few spots (including along the Housatonic)
may approach action stage, but no flooding is anticipated.

Across the entire region, a few rain and snow showers and
squalls into this evening with a cold front passage. Precip
will then taper to lake effect snow showers for northwestern
areas tonight into Wednesday. Afterward, mainly dry weather is
expected for Wednesday night into Thursday, which should allow
rivers and streams to recede.

Another storm system will impact the region for the late week
with some additional precip, mostly in the form of rain.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ032-
     033.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/Thompson
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
343 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-011100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
343 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York aside from the western
Adirondacks, and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Snow showers and isolated snow squalls are possible mainly between
6-11 pm. Travel on untreated roads could become locally hazardous.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ032-033-011100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
343 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western Adirondacks in eastern
New York.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW HERKIMER          43.04N  75.02W
12/31/2019  M57 MPH          HERKIMER           NY   NYS MESONET

            GUST DURING THUNDERSNOW SQUALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1904676

DBT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
710 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

NYZ041-042-050-083-010100-
Southeast Warren-Southern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Saratoga-
710 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WARREN AND SARATOGA COUNTIES...

At 709 PM EST, snow showers were located along a line extending from
near North Creek to near Glenville. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in around 30 mph and visibility reduced to half mile or less
are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton Park, Saratoga Springs, Glens Falls, Mechanicville,
Warrensburg, Lake George Village, Milton, Ballston Spa, Corinth,
Johnsburg, Waterford, Edinburg, Hague, Round Lake, Galway, Eagle
Point Campground, Day Center, Burnt Hills, Rock City Falls and Glens
Falls North.

This includes Interstate 87 between exits 8A and 26.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4380 7344 4377 7347 4365 7349 4356 7361
      4350 7363 4308 7358 4291 7368 4281 7366
      4278 7369 4282 7373 4278 7382 4291 7390
      4290 7396 4296 7409 4337 7413 4338 7416
      4373 7421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 277DEG 26KT 4374 7397 4295 7402

DBT