Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
237 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the area tonight and tomorrow
with isolated to scattered thundertorms into this evening, then
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
Mainly dry and warm weather can then be expected for the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered thunderstorms are developing over the Adirondacks this
afternoon south of a weak backdoor cold front that is dropping
south toward the area from Quebec. The atmosphere is moderately
unstable this afternoon into this evening with MLCAPE values
ranging mostly from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. One or two storms could
become strong or even marginally severe as deep layer shear
values around 30 kts will be enough for some storms to organize
into small convective clusters. In addition, steep low- level
lapse rates with DCAPE values from 1000 to 1200 J/kg could
result in some sneaky wet microbursts with localized damaging
wind gusts possible. The best chance for storms will be over
higher terrain where differential heating can result in some
small-scale enhanced lift. Otherwise, little-to-no large-scale
forcing today should keep storm coverage low with pops of 20 to
40 percent adequate for our area into this evening.  Scattered
storms will end across the area by mid- evening with mainly
clear skies developing overnight although some clouds may
increase from the north later tonight with the approach of the
cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak frontal boundary will slide across the area on Friday
while a mid-level short wave digs southeast from Quebec in
northwest flow aloft. This forcing should result in another
round of showers and thunderstorms firing during the afternoon.
This will be a rather weak and subtle frontal boundary, and
determining the exact location of storms Friday afternoon at
this point is not easy, although the latest round of operational
modelling seems to be targetting the southern half of our area.
Forcing aloft should be sufficient for high chc pops for the
entire area Friday afternoon, while the highest pops will be
over terrain in the south closer the surface front including the
Catskills and Litchfield Hills. Conditions will once again be
rather warm and muggy with high temperatures in the 80s and dew
points in the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday through Sunday appears to be mainly dry and quite warm
as our area will be near the northeast edge of a large upper
level ridge covering the central CONUS. The best chance for a
thunderstorm during this period will be Sunday afternoon as a
short wave rotates southeast around the northeast rim of the
ridge. Otherwise temperatures will be a bit above normal through
this period with highs mainly 85 to 90 and lows mostly in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
During the extended period, our region will be situated along the
northern periphery of strong upper level ridging that extends across
much of the central and eastern CONUS.

While there may be a slight to low chance each day of a diurnally-
driven shower or thunderstorm, coverage of storms is expected to be
rather low due to limited forcing.  The best chance may be towards
later in the week (Wednesday, Thursday or Friday), as some upper
level disturbances rotating through the zonal flow aloft will move
across the area and provide more lift and coverage of storms.  The
timing of these subtle feature is still rather uncertain, so which
day will be most active is still unknown at this time. Showers and
storms should diminish after the evening hours, so most overnight
hours look to be dry through the week.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the week.  850
hpa temps will rise from around 15 to 17 C on Monday to 18 to 20 C
for the rest of the week.  This should allow temps to reach into the
upper 80s to low 90s for highs in valley areas.  Overnight lows will
remain muggy in the 60s to low 70s.  With dewpoints in the 60s
through the week, it will feel rather muggy and sticky each day.
Will need to watch for heat index values getting close to the mid
90s by the middle to latter portion of the week and heat advisory
statements could be needed at some point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions ongoing this afternoon with a backdoor cold front
pushing southward towards to the Canadian/NY border. As a
result, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon which is why we have included VCSH starting around
20UTC at GFL, ALB and PSF. Given how far north the front is
located, we chose not to include the chances for showers at POU.
In addition, since thunderstorms activity should be isolated to
scattered, we did not include VCTS at this time. However, we
will amend the latest TAFs based on radar trends and coverage.

As the backdoor cold front sinks southward into New York State
tonight, chances for isolated showers linger so continued the
VCSH mention through most of the night. Once the front reaches
the TAF terminals from north to south by 09 - 11 UTC, ceilings
will likely become MVFR at GFL, PSF and ALB. The lowest ceilings
are expected at PSF and GFL and we showed the potential for
near IFR ceilings with a mention of SCT010. We did not have
enough confidence for MVFR ceilings at POU so we only show
SCT025.

MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR by late morning tomorrow but
showers and thunderstorms will once again have the potential to
develop towards the end of the TAF period. Current confidence
for the showers and storms to be tied to the terrain initially
which is why we only showed a PROB30 for -TSRA at PSF.

Winds will be north-northwest today near or less than 5kts through
today (higher in any thunderstorms) before becoming near calm
tonight. Winds should become north-northeast late tonight into
early tomorrow morning once the backdoor cold front pushes
through the region and be sustained near or less than 5kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front in Canada will drop south today through Friday.
Above normal temperatures and isolated thunderstorms are
expected today. Temperatures near normal Friday with scattered
thunderstorms as the cold front tracks through our region.
Mainly dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures are
expected for the holiday weekend.

The RH values will be 40 to 55 percent this afternoon, and then
increase to 80 to 100 percent Friday morning. RH values will
drop to 55 to 70 percent Friday afternoon with scattered
thunderstorms.

The winds will be north to northwest at 15 mph today before
become light tonight. Winds become northeast to east Friday at
15 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread hydrological issues are not expected on the main
stem rivers the next several days for the ALY Hydrological
Service Area.

Much of the HSA remains in either Abnormally Dry or Moderate
Drought category per the latest US Drought Monitor issued last
Thursday. Most rivers remain below the 25th percentile of 7-day
average streamflow.

Very warm and mainly dry weather is expected today, isolated
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out especially over
the higher terrain. Additional rainfall is expected on late
Thursday night into Friday with a back door cold front.

Some locally heavy rainfall is possible from any thunderstorms
on Friday. Basin average rainfall my range from a few tenths to
up to an inch. Drier weather is expected on the holiday weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...MSE
HYDROLOGY...NAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
253 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-
VTZ013>015-031900-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
253 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will occur late this afternoon into this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the
early evening. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
with large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rain is also
possible in thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ032-033-041>043-083-084-031900-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
253 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York and
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will occur late this afternoon into this
evening. The strongest storms could produce localized damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the
early evening. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
with large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rain is also
possible in thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MSE

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
452 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

NYZ041-049-050-053-054-084-022115-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Schenectady-Eastern Rensselaer-Southern
Washington-Southern Saratoga-Northern Saratoga-
452 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL
SCHENECTADY...SOUTHEASTERN SARATOGA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES...

At 452 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Salem to Ballston Spa. Movement was
south at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton Park, Saratoga Springs, Mechanicville, Hoosick Falls, Milton,
Ballston Spa, Cambridge, Greenwich, Round Lake, Rock City Falls,
Country Knolls, North Ballston Spa, Gates, Halfmoon, Malta, Hoosick,
Lee, Pittstown, White Creek and Easton.

This includes Interstate 87 between exits 8A and 14.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4286 7328 4279 7371 4282 7373 4279 7377
      4279 7379 4278 7380 4277 7386 4306 7394
      4315 7330 4295 7327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 352DEG 24KT 4310 7330 4298 7387

CS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE MILTON            43.04N  73.83W
07/02/2020                   SARATOGA           NY   METEOROLOGIST

            TREE DOWN AT FERN DR AND HATHORN BLVD

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2002512

IAA