Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
223 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and an upper level disturbance will bring
showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New
England today. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe
with damaging winds and large hail this afternoon into early this
evening. Intermittent afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue Monday into the middle of next week, as
an upper level low remains over New York and New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312 in effect until 8 PM EDT this
evening for Schoharie, Albany, Rensselaer and Berkshire Counties
south and east...

As of 220 PM EDT, numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
continue across the region. Most thunderstorms across northern
areas have been slower moving and training, producing very heavy
rainfall. This area is coincident with weaker 0-6 km bulk
shear, generally less than 20 KT. However, cells across southern
areas are within an area of stronger shear, 25-30 KT, in
addition to greater instability as MU CAPES are over 2000 J/kg
(as opposed to 1000-1500 J/kg to the north).

Lifting mechanism appears to be combination of falling heights
aloft with upper level divergence, especially central/southern
areas which lies proximate to a cyclonically curved upper level
jet across PA. Also, a shortwave was noted on latest WV imagery
centered over the western Adirondacks and extending
south/southwest into the northern Catskills. It appears to be
that the leading edge of forcing from this shortwave is igniting
a line of convection from the western Mohawk Valley into the
Catskills. This line, and any discrete cells that form ahead of
it, are where the threat for additional severe storms is
greatest through this evening, with damaging wind gusts the
biggest threat, especially should any bowing segments form
within the line, and also isolated downbursts with the more
discrete cells ahead of the line. Also, can not rule out
marginally large hail within any taller cells, with some veering
winds within the mid levels of the atmosphere potentially
allowing for some mid level rotation and large hail formation.

Main cold front was still across west/central NYS, and can not
rule out additional thunderstorms developing along the front
once again later this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tonight...The strong to severe thunderstorms continue in the
late pm and early evening, but should diminish shortly after
sunset. The showers may be the most persistent east of the
Hudson River Valley before decreasing. Others may pop-up over
the southern Adirondacks and locations northwest of Albany, as
the closed H500 upper level low settles southward. Some patchy
fog may form again and it could be locally dense depending on
what areas got soaked. Despite weak cold advection in the wake
of the weak cold front, it will remain fairly muggy with lows in
the 60-65F range in the lower elevations, and mid 50s to around
60F over the higher terrain.

Monday...This pattern will be repetitive the next few days with
a closed/cutoff upper level over eastern NY and New England with
pieces of short-wave spinning around it focusing showers and
thunderstorms. The cold pool aloft will be about -12C to -15C at
500 hPa. Sfc dewpts in the upper 50s to mid 60s with some sfc
heating support instability values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range
with slightly higher values around. The 0-6 km shear is not very
strong, but some loosely organized convection or multi-cells
are possible. We are not outlooked, but isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms with some sub-severe hail and gusty
winds are possible. Would not rule out a few marginally severe
thunderstorms too. Highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s in the valley areas, and upper 60s to mid/upper 70s
over the hill towns and mtns. PWATS remain about 1-1.50" some
some localized moderate to heavy rainfall is possible,
especially with any slow movers or training cells in the the
north to northwest flow aloft.

Mon Night...The thunderstorms should diminish with the loss of
the daytime heating. Some showers may be persistent north and
east of the Capital Region with the cyclonic vorticity advection
continuing around the closed/cut-off lows. Patchy fog may form
again especially with any clearing. Lows will be similar to the
previous night with mid 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday...Some variability in the guidance where the upper low
is centered for this day. The 00Z NAM is centered over eastern
NY and western New England border with the cold pool at H500 at
-15C to -16C. The latest 00Z ECMWF/GFS are slightly further
east over New England. The upper lows cold pool and cyclonic
vorticity advection will focus scattered to numerous showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms again. Instability may be
similar to MON, but perhaps a little less over northern zones
with 500-1500 J/kg with modest to weak shear, so not expecting
widespread severe potential. Slight cooler temps under the upper
low with mid 60s to lower/mid 70s over the hills and mtns, and
upper 70s to around 80F in the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Per the previous couple of discussions, rex-blocking upper pattern
remains in place as upper low remains nearly quasi-stationary
Tuesday night into most of Wednesday night across the local area.
This will keep our weather unsettled with mainly diurnally driven
convection. In addition, as winds aloft will be lighter than usual
and where convection is able to sustain, some locally moderate to
heavy rainfall may occur.  Global models suggest the better coverage
of precipitation will occur on Wednesday as short wave timing around
the backside of this upper low will track across the region.

Eventually, this upper low will weaken and begin to drift southward
as an evolving strong impulse from James/Hudson Bay slides south for
the later half of this week.  In fact, this feature will likely
bring a backdoor cold front southward sometime on Friday with
another potential for some convection.  Now, as with all extended
models, there is now a suggestion that the front will be nearly
stationary, north to south, across eastern NY on July 4th.  If so,
then another chance of convection with daytime heating will exist
but should dissipate by sunset Saturday evening.

As for temperatures through the long term, summer-like values are
expected through the mid-week period with lows mainly into the 60s
and highs well into the 70s for the terrain and 80s elsewhere.  The
challenge arrives with the timing and position of the backdoor cold
front.  Could see a good temperature contrast set up Friday night
into Saturday across the county warning area.  For now, a MOS
blended approach with around 80F for valley locations and 70s
elsewhere with overnight lows into the 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z/Mon...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue across the terminals through this evening. Flight
categories will remain widely variable with MVFR/IFR conditions
during showers/t-storms and MVFR/VFR outside. Activity will
begin to lessen this evening, but an isolated shower may still
linger.

The evening will probably consist of a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs,
then low- level stratus and/or fog will likely reform after
midnight in which IFR (and possibly even LIFR) conditions
are possible. Clouds should lift during Monday morning to
either MVFR or VFR prior to the development of scattered
showers/t-storms after 15z.

Wind will be variable at 10 kt or less through this afternoon,
then become light and variable tonight. Wind will then be out
of the north at 5-10 kt tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front and an upper level disturbance will bring
showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New
England today. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe
with damaging winds and large hail this afternoon into early this
evening. Intermittent afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue Monday into the middle of next week, as
an upper level low remains over New York and New England.

The RH values fall to 50-65 percent this afternoon, and then
increase to 90-100 percent Monday morning with widespread dew
formation and some areas of fog possible. The RH values will
lower to 45 to 70 percent Monday afternoon.

The winds will shift from the south to southwest to the west to
northwest at 5-15 mph by this afternoon, with some gusts up to
20 mph possible. The winds will become northwest to north at 10
mph or less Sunday night into Monday.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An unsettled weather pattern closing the weekend into the middle
of next week will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms
ongoing for the ALY Hydro Service Area, which should help
alleviate some of the DO and D1 conditions (abnormally dry to
moderate drought) over large portions of the area.

Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected Sunday
through mid week, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours.
Locally heavy downpours may lead to some ponding of water in
urban/poor drainage and low lying areas, especially any areas
where multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms occur. No
problems are expected on the main stem river levels at this
time with below normal flows for late June. Overall, river
levels are not expected to exhibit significant rises at this
time, due to limited areal coverage of showers and
thunderstorms.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...KL/Wasula

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
439 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ033-039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-291100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Hamilton-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
439 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York excluding Herkimer County
and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon into the early evening ahead of a cold front and an upper
level disturbance. Some of the thunderstorms could contain large hail
one inch in diameter or greater and or damaging winds 58 mph or
greater.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ032-038-291100-
Northern Herkimer-Southern Herkimer-
439 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Herkimer County in eastern New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into the early
evening. Some thunderstorms may contain small hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     LIGHTNING        1 SW DALTON             42.46N  73.18W
06/28/2020                   BERKSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            HOUSE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING ON PATRICIA AVE. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2002480

IAA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
216 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

NYZ040-047-281845-
Schoharie-Montgomery-
216 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN SCHOHARIE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

At 216 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Ames to near Hobart. Movement was
east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cobleskill, Jefferson, Summit, Richmondville, Sharon Springs, Ames,
Carlisle, Sharon, Seward, Zeh Corners, Beekman Corners, West
Richmondville, Baird Corners, Warnerville, Flat Creek, Engleville,
Gardnersville, Market Corners, Becker Corners and West Fulton.

This includes Interstate 88 between exits 20 and 22.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4262 7463 4274 7467 4279 7467 4283 7465
      4283 7466 4286 7465 4283 7433 4238 7451
      4242 7462 4252 7471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 275DEG 21KT 4283 7454 4232 7469

CS