Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
518 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms into the early evening ahead
of an approaching cold front. Cooler and drier air will be
ushered in with its passage for Sunday and Monday. Chances for
showers return for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #469 pm remain is in effect until 9
pm for all but Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield counties.

Area is in the warm sector with CAPE values of up to 1000 J/KG
and effective bulk shear of 35 to 45 knots. Mid-level lapse
rate less than 6 C/KM, however low-level winds are locally
backed to southeasterly across the greater Capital District
which will continue to support rotating storms. The environment
will continue to support the potential for organized storms into
early this evening. Storms north of I-90 have been rotating.
Did get a report 1.5 inch hail and snapped tree in Galway
Saratoga County.

The threat for storms will diminish with the passage of the
cold front early this evening with just some lingering showers
expected especially across the Adirondacks as secondary cold
front approaches. A cooler and drier air will be ushered in on
westerly winds with temperatures and dew points expected to drop
into the 50s. With drier and winds tonight fog will not be an
issue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cooler and drier to close out the weekend and start the new work
week. A secondary front will sweep through Sunday associated
with the upper trough axis. There should be a brief lake effect
response with some showers possible into the western Mohawk
Valley early in the morning. Otherwise increasing sunshine
especially in the afternoon. Looking at highs in the 70s below
1000 feet and in the 60s above that with any 50s limted to
higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.

Higher pressure builds in Sunday afternoon and shifts eastward
across the region shifting off the coast Monday afternoon.
Monday will not be a cool with a return flow developing about
the departing high. Highs in the 70s below 1500 feet and in the
60s above that. Clouds will be in the increase Monday night
into Tuesday as low pressure develops along/off the mid-Atlantic
coast. This system will bring chances for showers to the area
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended forecast period figures to be quite unsettled with day-
to-day chances for showers and/or thunderstorms. Given that the
forecast area will be positioned on the eastern flank of a large
upper trough/cyclonic flow stationed over central Canada into the
north-central U.S., the weather pattern during the extended will be
driven by an active southwest flow aloft regime that will serve as a
conduit for a series of shortwaves/mid-upper level perturbations and
associated storm systems. Additionally, attendant warm
advection/moisture transport (isentropic lifting) will be in play
given the large scale setup as well as potential influences from
frontal structures.

That said, there remains a bit of uncertainty during this period
regarding the timing, spatial extent of precipitation into our FA,
amongst other details.

We start off the period Tuesday night into Wednesday dry. A
shortwave/associated storm system will dive into the northern
Rockies Monday night into Tuesday before ejecting out of the
southern Rockies into the southern Plains during the day on Tuesday.
This feature associated with the southern stream will then interact
with a longwave trough and associated surface cold front over the
north-central U.S. Attendant moisture return and warm advection
ahead of these two features will support the development of showers
and thunderstorms. That said, rain/thunderstorm chances will
steadily be on the rise through the day on Wednesday. Again there
remains uncertainty amongst forecast models in the timing of
precipitation and the fropa. The GFS is the fastest of the solutions
introducing rain/thunderstorms into the region as early as Wednesday
afternoon/evening. The EC/CMC guidances are slower, more
conservative with introducing precip over the FA as well as pushing
the cold front across our area. In fact, both solutions signal
stalling of the cold front just to our west on Wednesday. The EC/CMC
solutions introduce showers over our area overnight Wednesday into
Thursday. That said, have taken blended approach and included 30%
PoPs second half of Wednesday into Thursday.

Another shortwave/surface storm system associated with the northern
stream quickly tracks on the heels of the first storm system along
the U.S.-Canadian border, while additional mid to upper level
impulse associated with the southern stream along with continued
warm advection/moisture returns track towards our FA. Rain and
thunderstorms on Thursday look to develop over the afternoon/evening
hours or hours of prime differential heating. Have 40% chance PoPs
for Thursday afternoon/evening into Friday.

Friday and Saturday looks cooler with reduced humidity levels under
partly cloudy skies following the fropa. That said, can't completely
rule out the chance for some diurnal, orographic-enhanced showers to
develop in the afternoon hours (especially on Friday) with upper
troughing just to our north and mid-upper impulses moving over the
region.

Temperature anomalies for the balance of this period look to run
normal to warmer than normal with a downtrend to near normal and
maybe even cooler than normal levels by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
after being socked in MVFR-LIFR cigs and vsbys this morning,
we're finally beginning to see the clouds break. As of 1:30 pm
EDT, visible satellite imagery shows a pocket of clearing right
over the Capital District with more extensive clearing taking
place to our west. Cloud heights of strato-cu variety will
continue in the near term will improve slightly and hold between
MVFR-VFR levels with coverage between SCT-BKN holding.

As far as timing of showers and thunderstorms, the expectation
is between 18z-01z across the TAF sites. Showers and storms
should come to an end tonight from northwest to southeast after
02z/Sun. Any shower or thunderstorm will have the potential to
bring cigs/vsbys down to MVFR/IFR levels. Once the line of
showers and storms pass this evening, cigs are expected to
return to VFR levels.

Winds will remain a factor throughout the 18z TAF period. As a
result, fog will not be an issue tonight.

Southwest winds will continue this afternoon 10-15 kts at
KALB/KPSF/KPOU and 5-10 kts at KGFL. Winds could occasionally gust
up to 20 kts at KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Winds will shift out of the west
tonight 5-15 kts before shifting out of the northwest on Sunday 10-
15 kts. On Sunday, winds could gusts up to 20 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler and drier air will be ushered in with the passage of a
couple of cold fronts. Minimum relative humidity values are
forecast to be in the 40s both Sunday and Monday afternoons.
Northwesterly winds will gust in the 20s Sunday with winds
diminishing Sunday night and light winds Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Very heavy rain with storms into this evening as we have high
PWATS across the area. Some flooding of poor draining and low
lying areas may occur with isolated flash flooding possible.
The rainfall won't be heavy enough to cause any issues on the
larger rivers, but small streams and creeks could see brief,
sharp rises.

Dry weather is then expected for Sunday into Monday which will
allow for river and stream flows to recede. Unsettled weather
expected late in the week as a series of fronts approach and
move across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...Evbuoma
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TORNADO          2 N MECHANICVILLE       42.94N  73.70W
08/29/2020                   SARATOGA           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOBILE HOME DAMAGED BY HIGH WINDS ON MCDERMOTT ROAD.
            LIKELY TORNADO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2002905

DBT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             BUSKIRK                 42.94N  73.45W
08/29/2020  M0.75 INCH       RENSSELAER         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2002906

DBT

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