Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Albany, NY

966 
WWUS81 KALY 230016
RFWALY

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
816 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020


MAZ001-025-230130-
/O.CAN.KALY.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200923T0100Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-
816 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE BERKSHIRES...

The National Weather Service in Albany has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning for the Berkshires in western Massachusetts. Winds and
relative humidity values have fallen below the criteria for a Red
Flag warning this evening. 


$$

MSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will control the weather for the upcoming week.
Temperatures will steadily climb with anomalies getting back
to warmer than normal levels later in the week. Dry and mainly
clear weather is expected to continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clear sky other than some thin haze/smoke well aloft.
High pressure centered over the region and calm to near
calm winds allowing for temperatures to drop into the 30s in
many areas. Some patchy fog in some areas and lows in the upper
20s to mid 30s with frost once again around daybreak in many
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weather highlights through the short term period will focus on
1) an elevated risk for fire Tuesday afternoon (western New
England), 2) increased concentration of smoke aloft affecting
our skies, and 3) the potential for some increased cloud cover
on Thursday in response to a northern stream upper impulse to
our west.

Tuesday-Wednesday

For Tuesday, high pressure will remain over the area
yielding to another tranquil day with plenty of sunshine. Winds will
be on the increase however Tuesday afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens over the area with the FA being sandwiched in
between the aforementioned surface high and Tropical Storm Teddy
which will be passing well to our east over the Atlantic Ocean. See
www.hurricanes.gov for more information regarding Tropical Storm
Teddy. Tuesday afternoon, winds will increase 5 to 15 mph out of the
northwest with gust as high as 25 mph especially across the
Catskills, the Berkshires, and western New England. Given that RH
values will be ranging from 30 to 40 percent, have issued a Fire
Weather Watch for the Berkshires through Tuesday evening for the
risk of fire. Wednesday will feature another quiet day with high
pressure still in control. Gusty northwest winds will continue
through the day with gusts up to 20 mph.

Thursday

Thursday will be another tranquil day, but clouds could be on the
increase during the afternoon/evening hours as mid to upper impulses
approach from the west.

With the H500 pattern expected to flatten and become a bit more
zonal, smoke from the western U.S. wildfires will affect our skies
giving way to a hazy look at times Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly
into Thursday. Given the fact that the smoke is well up above the
surface, we do not anticipate this having any public health impacts.

Temperatures will steadily be on the increase through Thursday with
anomalies going from cooler than normal values to warmer than normal
values. Daytime temperatures are progged to approach the mid 60s on
Tuesday, low 70s on Wednesday, and the low to mid 70s on Thursday
across the valleys (cooler higher elevations). Overnight lows will
be in the range from the upper 20s to upper 30s tonight, 40s Tuesday
night (low 50s mid-Hudson Valley), and low 50s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and mild conditions are expected through Saturday, before a
possible trend toward wetter conditions commences Saturday night
into Monday.

A weak, moisture-staved front will settle southward Thursday
night/early Friday, possibly bringing some clouds, with slightly
cooler temps across northern areas by Friday. Isolated sprinkles may
occur across portions of the southern Adirondacks, otherwise dry
conditions are forecast.

Generally dry conditions are expected through most of Saturday,
however with the combination of a large high pressure area
translating east of the region, and a front slowly approaching from
the west should allow for a southeast low level flow to develop and
entrain low level moisture into the region Saturday afternoon/night,
possibly allowing for low clouds and some showers/patchy drizzle to
develop, especially areas south of I-90.

Chances for showers will increase Sunday, as a combination of low
level moisture, and perhaps some remnant moisture from Tropical
Cyclone Beta approach from the south. Best chances for showers
appear to be along and east of the Hudson River, but could affect a
larger area depending how much moisture lifts northward.

More widespread showers are possible Sunday night into Monday as a
frontal system approaching from the west provides additional
forcing, combined with the deeper moisture emanating from the Gulf
of Mexico and western Atlantic.

As for temperatures, highs Friday-Saturday mainly in the lower/mid
70s in valleys, and 65-70 across higher terrain areas, although
there is a possibility of warmer temps across portions of the mid
Hudson Valley and perhaps into portions of the Capital Region,
especially if any smoke aloft remains limited. Slightly cooler for
Sunday-Monday due to more clouds and possible showers, with highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows Friday/Saturday mornings
ranging from the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s, although could be locally
cooler across portions of the southern Adirondacks. Lows
Sunday/Monday mornings slightly milder due to clouds and higher RH,
mainly in the 50s although some lower 60s are possible within
portions of the Hudson River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Radiational cooling is underway tonight with temperatures
slowly approaching their respective dew points which has
resulted in MVFR visibilities at GFL. ALB, PSF and POU still
remain VFR but the observers at ALB have already indicated BCFG
which makes sense given that the dew point and temperature are
now equal. As clear skies and calm winds continue for the
remainder of the night, we will be monitoring GOES16 satellite
night fog channel for indications that fog is becoming more
widespread and thicker. Latest guidance suggests the main
window for potential MFR visibilities at PSF and POU and even
IFR visibility at ALB and GFL looks to be 09-12 UTC/Tue.

Any patchy ground fog should lift by 12-13UTC/Tue with VFR
conditions following for remainder of the TAF cycle.

Calm winds tonight will become breezy towards 15 UTC with
sustained winds from the north-northwest ranging 8-12kts with
gusts 15-20kts during the afternoon. Wind gusts subside by
sunset by sustained winds likely remain near 5-8kts overnight.
Low-level wind shear is be possible at POU towards the end of
the TAF period but due to uncertainty, we did not include this
in the latest TAF issuance.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Weather Watch for Berkshire County Tuesday morning through
Tuesday evening due to low RH and gusty winds...

Low relative humidity levels coupled with gusty winds has resulted
in the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for the Berkshires for
Tuesday.

High pressure will control the weather during the upcoming week.
Temperatures will moderate back to above normal, with dry and mainly
clear weather expected to continue.

RH values will rise tonight to near 90 percent. RH values are
expected to fall Tuesday to 30 to 40 percent in the afternoon, with
northwest winds increasing 10 to 15 mph. Western New England could
see gusts up to 25 mph Tuesday afternoon. The next chance for rain
will not be until early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will be in control through much of this week,
allowing for mainly clear skies and no precipitation. With no
storms systems heading our way, dry weather is anticipated to
continue through much of the upcoming week as well. This will
allow for river and stream levels to hold steady or slowly fall.
Many locations are already seeing below normal stream flows and
this is expected to continue. The next chance for rain will not
be until late next weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ001-013.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059>061-064>066.
MA...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Evbuoma
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Evbuoma
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...Evbuoma
HYDROLOGY...Evbuoma/NAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
516 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

NYZ032-033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-063-082>084-VTZ013>015-221100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Western Albany-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
516 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Catskills, southern
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Lake George and Saratoga region, and
northern Taconics of eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ001-013-NYZ049-050-052-053-059>061-064>066-221100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Eastern Schenectady-
Southern Saratoga-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-
516 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and
the Capital Region, Mid-Hudson Valley, and southern Taconics of
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ001-025-221100-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-
516 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Fire Weather Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.