Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Albany, NY

728 
WWUS41 KALY 270300
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1000 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

NYZ032-033-271000-
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.200227T1500Z-200228T2100Z/
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-200227T1500Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, and Wells
1000 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. For the Blizzard Warning,
  blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to
  16 inches for areas along and north of Route 28 including Old 
  Forge and Indian Lake across the western Adirondacks. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 to 45 mph will produce blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM EST  
  Thursday. For the Blizzard Warning, from 10 AM Thursday to 4 PM 
  EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow will produce near zero visibilities. The strong
  winds could cause some downed trees, tree limbs, and power lines
  resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of one to two inches per
  hour are possible briefly Thursday morning, and during the 
  Blizzard Warning. The combination of gusty winds and falling 
  snow will result in whiteout conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, have a winter
survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your 
vehicle.

Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow,
frequently reducing visibilities to zero.

&&

$$

NYZ042-VTZ013-014-271000-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-200227T1500Z/
Northern Warren-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Stamford, Bennington, 
Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, and Londonderry
1000 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches,
  especially for areas above 1500 feet elevation. Winds gusting as
  high as 35 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...In Vermont, Bennington and Western Windham Counties. 
  In New York, Northern Warren County.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute on Thursday. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches, isolated trees and power
  lines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow overnight and
  continue into Thursday morning for high terrain areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

817 
WWUS41 KALY 270846
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
346 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

NYZ032-033-271515-
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.200227T1500Z-200228T2100Z/
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-200227T1500Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, and Wells
346 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. For the Blizzard Warning,
  blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to
  18 inches for areas along and north of Route 28 including Old
  Forge and Indian Lake across the western Adirondacks. Brisk and
  gusty will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM EST 
  Thursday. For the Blizzard Warning, from 10 AM Thursday to 4 
  PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible due to
  the lake effect snows. Areas of blowing snow will produce near 
  zero visibilities. The strong winds could cause some downed 
  trees, tree limbs, and power lines resulting in isolated to 
  scattered power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of one to two inches per 
  hour are possible briefly Thursday morning, and during the 
  Blizzard Warning. The combination of gusty winds and falling 
  snow will result in whiteout conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, have a winter
survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your
vehicle.

Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow,
frequently reducing visibilities to zero.

&&

$$

NYZ042-VTZ013-014-271500-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-200227T1500Z/
Northern Warren-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Stamford, Bennington, 
Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, and Londonderry
346 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches,
  especially for areas above 1500 feet elevation. 

* WHERE...In Vermont, Bennington and Western Windham Counties. 
  In New York, Northern Warren County.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions impact this mornings
  commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches, isolated 
  trees and power lines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain changing to snow early this morning
  across the high terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

205 
WWUS41 KALY 271458
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
958 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

NYZ032-033-272300-
/O.CAN.KALY.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-200227T1500Z/
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.200227T1500Z-200228T2100Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, and Wells
958 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  8 to 18 inches for areas along and north of Route 28 including
  Old Forge and Indian Lake across the western Adirondacks. Wind
  gusts at or above 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow
  along with visibility to near zero at times.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible due to 
  the lake effect snows. Areas of blowing snow will produce near 
  zero visibilities. The strong winds could cause some downed 
  trees, tree limbs, and power lines resulting in isolated to 
  scattered power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of one to two inches per 
  hour are possible briefly Thursday morning, and during the 
  Blizzard Warning. The combination of gusty winds and falling 
  snow will result in whiteout conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

NYZ042-VTZ013-014-271800-
/O.EXT.KALY.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-200227T1800Z/
Northern Warren-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Stamford, Bennington, 
Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, and Londonderry
958 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 
  inches, especially for areas above 1500 feet elevation.

* WHERE...In Vermont, Bennington and Western Windham Counties. 
  In New York, Northern Warren County.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches, isolated trees and power lines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...As temperatures drop at or below freezing,
  untreated surfaces may become icy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

129 
WWUS41 KALY 271812
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
112 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020


NYZ042-VTZ013-014-271915-
/O.EXP.KALY.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-200227T1800Z/
Northern Warren-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Stamford, Bennington, 
Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, and Londonderry
112 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Light snow showers will persist through the remainder of the
afternoon hours. Little additional accumulations are expected as
the winter weather advisory has been allowed to expire. 

$$

NYZ032-033-280200-
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, and Wells
112 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 8 to 18 inches for areas along and north of Route 28 
  including Old Forge and Indian Lake across the western 
  Adirondacks. Wind gusts at or above 50 mph will produce 
  blowing and drifting snow along with visibility to near zero 
  at times.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible due to 
  the lake effect snows. Areas of blowing snow will produce near 
  zero visibilities. The strong winds could cause some downed 
  trees, tree limbs, and power lines resulting in isolated to 
  scattered power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of one to two inches per
  hour are possible. The combination of gusty winds and falling 
  snow will result in whiteout conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

157 
WWUS41 KALY 272054
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
354 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

NYZ032-033-280500-
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, and Wells
354 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 8 to 18 inches for areas along and north of Route 28 
  including Old Forge and Indian Lake across the western 
  Adirondacks. Wind gusts at or above 50 mph will produce 
  blowing and drifting snow along with visibility to near zero 
  at times.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible due to 
  the lake effect snows. Areas of blowing snow will produce near 
  zero visibilities. The strong winds could cause some downed 
  trees, tree limbs, and power lines resulting in isolated to 
  scattered power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
  are possible. The combination of gusty winds and falling 
  snow will result in whiteout conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

958 
WWUS41 KALY 280238
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
938 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

NYZ032-033-281000-
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, and Wells
938 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations
  between 8 and 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
  are possible. The combination of gusty winds, falling snow and
  snow on the ground will result in whiteout conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

438 
WWUS41 KALY 280910
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
410 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

NYZ032-033-281715-
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, and Wells
410 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions near and north of Route 28.
  Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches across the
  extreme northern portions of Herkimer and Hamilton counties. 
  Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Characteristic of snow will be light and
  fluffy with blowing and drifting snow are expected.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

250 
WWUS41 KALY 281437
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
937 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

NYZ033-282100-
/O.CAN.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KALY.WW.Y.0013.200228T1437Z-200228T2100Z/
Hamilton-
Including the cities of Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister, 
and Wells
937 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow. Additional snow
  accumulations of up to 4 inches, mainly north of Route 28. 
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Hamilton County.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

NYZ032-282100-
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
Northern Herkimer-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, and Northwood
937 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions with additional snow accumulations of
  up to 6 inches mainly north of Route 28. Winds gusting as high 
  as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer County.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

642 
WWUS41 KALY 281810
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

NYZ032-290215-
/O.CAN.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200228T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KALY.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0900Z/
Northern Herkimer-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, and Northwood
110 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to
  6 inches, highest north of Route 28.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer County.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibility will be
  reduced in snow and blowing snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

NYZ033-290215-
/O.EXT.KALY.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-200229T0900Z/
Hamilton-
Including the cities of Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister, 
and Wells
110 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to
  4 inches, highest north of Route 28. Winds gusting as high as 
  35 mph.

* WHERE...Hamilton County.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibility will be
  reduced in snow and blowing snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1257 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Along with cloudy skies and cooler temperatures, some
areas of light rain or mixed precipitation is expected at times
through this afternoon. A strong area of low pressure will bring
widespread rain to the region for this evening, which will change
over to snow across the high terrain areas for tonight into Thursday
morning.  Behind the storm, much colder and windy conditions are
expected for the entire area for later Thursday into Friday, with
heavy lake effect snow for the western Adirondacks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1245 PM EST...Not much change as weak and broad
isentropic lift coinciding with upslope conditions are resulting
in occasional light precipitation across the CWA. Regional
radar continues to show light returns mainly along and north of
I90, and mesonet observations indicate temperatures above
freezing across the region. So minor updates to the forecast at
this time.

Prev Disc...Developing upper level low is located over the Midwest,
with broad southwest flow across the eastern seaboard. IR satellite
imagery shows lots of clouds in place, as abundant mid and high
level moisture streams into the area. At the surface, a storm system
is located over the Ohio Valley, while another stalled boundary is
located just south of the region across the mid Atlantic States.
Weak warm advection has been allowing for some spotty light
precipitation this morning. Most of this has been in the form of
light rain showers, although a few wet snowflakes and/or sleet
pellets have also been occurring for some colder areas. With fairly
dry conditions at low levels, some of this hasn't been even reaching
the ground in some areas, and where it has, its been rather light in
intensity.

Through the morning hours, there will continue to be a chance for
some spotty light precip, but forcing will remain fairly weak
through the day. P-type will be rain for most areas, as surface
temps are generally above freezing, but can't totally rule out a
little mixed precip for northern and/or high terrain  areas. Best
chance of seeing a shower will probably be for areas near or north
of the Capital Region through the day, otherwise, skies look to stay
fairly cloudy with all the clouds streaming in from the southwest.

Current temps are generally in the 30s. Max temps this afternoon
will only be a little higher than current levels, with highs in the
mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fast moving, but strong storm system looks to impact the region
for tonight into tomorrow morning, with significant lake effect
snow for the Adirondacks to follow...

Area of low pressure will be deepening as it lifts from western
PA towards western New York overnight. A secondary area of low
pressure will also be developing along this storm's triple
point, which will be lifting northeast across the southern part
of our area for tonight as well.

Ahead of this storm system, a strong southeasterly low-level
jet in excess of 50 kts will be in place. 850 hpa v-wind will be
about 2 to 3 STD above normal, which will be transporting both
plenty of Atlantic moisture and warmer temps aloft into the
region. Although this evening will start off fairly dry, precip
looks to be moving in just ahead of the storm's occluded
boundary, mainly for after midnight. Precip looks to begin as
rain everywhere, even across the higher terrain, as plenty of
warm air will be in place aloft. With the strong forcing and
abundant moisture moving in, rainfall may be briefly moderate to
heavy in intensity. Areas south of the triple point low (such as
the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT) could even see a rumble of
thunder, but not enough confidence in that to include in the
forecast at this time.

As soon as the boundary passes, colder air will be rushing in,
and some lingering precip will change over to snow for the
higher terrain for late tonight into Thursday morning. Most of
the additional precip will be located across northern areas, as
moisture wraps around the strong primary low moving across
eastern Lake Ontario as it heads towards eastern Ontario and
western Quebec for Thursday. As a result, a quick few inches of
wet snow looks to accumulate across the highest terrain of the
Adirondacks and Greens for very late tonight into the first part
of Thursday morning. Valley areas from the Capital Region on
south and east probably won't see any change over to snow, as
precip looks to end before surface temps cool off enough.
However, parts of the Mohawk Valley and Hudson Valley north of
Albany could see a quick coating of snow before precip ends,
although any real accumulation looks limited to areas above 1500
feet elevation. Have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory for the
Adirondacks and southern Greens due to this quick shot of light
to moderate snow accumulation.

In addition, gusty winds are expected for late tonight thanks to
the strong e-se low level jet. These winds will be strongest in
areas that channel this type of flow across the Taconics and
western New England. Some gusts may exceed 45 mph and the
combination of the wet snow and gusty winds will result in some
power outages. Have included a Wind Advisory for Bennington, N.
Berkshires and E. Rensselaer Counties.

Behind the departing strong, gusty westerly winds are expected
for the entire area, as both a strong pressure gradient and good
mixing due to the colder air arriving aloft. Gusts over 30 mph
are possible for much of the region. Although many areas will
remain fairly cloudy due to the moist, cyclonic flow thanks to
the strong upper level low located just northwest of the area,
some downsloping will allow for some breaks of sun for the mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT by Thursday afternoon.

Temps will be steady or slowly falling into the 30s for tonight
into Thursday morning and then falling even quicker into the 20s
for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening as much colder air
arrives. The combination of falling temps and gusty winds will
make it feel very cold outside, which will be a big change from
the recent mild weather.

Lake-effect will be developing behind the departing storm as
well for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, as temps
aloft rapidly cool. 850 hpa temps will be -15 to around -20 C
and lake surface temps remain about +5 C. The cutoff upper
level low will only slowly be moving across Ontario and Quebec,
and there will be a persistent westerly flow at low to mid
levels. The flow will be across multiple Great Lakes, with a
single long-lake axis parallel band off Lake Ontario. Local
CSTAR research would suggest a band of this setup should have a
fairly far inland extent, especially considering the abundant
moisture and strong winds in place. It should be fairly steady
state band as well, with the development expected by Thursday
afternoon and it looks to impact the western and central
Adirondacks through at least Friday. Single point totals look to
easily be 1 to 2 feet, and its not out of the question for even
higher totals near Old Forge-Inlet based off latest guidance.

Outside of the lake-effect area, it looks to be cold, breezy and
fairly cloudy for Thursday night into Friday. A few flurries are
possible within the cyclonic flow as well (mainly for northern,
western and upslope areas), but little to no accumulation is
expected outside of the lake effect areas. Temps should fall
into the teens and 20s for Thursday night, with highs on Friday
only in the 20s to mid 30s. Gusty westerly winds should continue
all the way through Thursday night and Friday as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold this weekend with temperatures moderating to normal levels
early next week. Lingering lake effect snows into this weekend
otherwise fair weather into early next week before things turn
wet.

The large upper level low will move gradually eastward and fill
over the weekend as ridging advances eastward from the Plains.
Lake effect snows are expected to continue into Saturday across
the western Adirondacks as favorable low level flow persists
across Lake Ontario. Additional accumulations will be light.
The flow will become more northwesterly as the weekend progresses
shifting the focus for lake effect to our west across portions
of central New York.

Heights will finally begin to rise as the upper trough axis
moves offshore during the day Saturday. Ridging builds in
over the rest of weekend at the surface and aloft. Fair
conditions with moderating temperatures as the ridging shifts
across the region through Monday.

The pattern turns activity as head toward the mid week period
and trough digs across the Plains and deep southwest develops
across the eastern United States tapping into gulf moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds with occasional light rain/drizzle will continue through the
evening. This will lead to an oscillation between IFR/MVFR
conditions at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. A lower cloud deck has led to LIFR
conditions at KPOU, and suspect that trend will continue through the
afternoon. KPOU may trend to IFR/MVFR conditions this evening.

Storm system moves across the region tonight. A steady moderate to
occasionally heavy rain will arrive between 07z-09z Thursday. A
rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out at KPOU. A front lifts to the
north between 12z-14z Thursday, ending precipitation. Precipitation
may end as a brief period of snow at KGFL between 12z-14z. Lake-
effect and upslope snow will then develop later Thursday morning,
which may be close enough to KGFL/KPSF to allow for VCSH.

Wind will be light from the north to northeast through this
afternoon, before shifting to the east to southeast this evening. It
may remain northeast at KPOU into the overnight. With light surface
flow tonight, LLWS will be a factor at all sites between 07z-12z
Thursday with winds at 2000 feet between 45-55 kts. Surface wind
will then turn to the west Thursday morning at 10-20 kts with higher
gusts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Just spotty light precip is expected today, but a widespread
rain will occur tonight. Some of this rain will end as snow
across the highest elevations. Storm total QPF will be around
one half to one inch, with a few locally higher totals possible.
The combination of this precip and melting snowpack should allow
for rises on rivers and streams. However, MMEFS doesn't suggest
this precip will be enough to cause any flooding. A worse-case
scenario would be for a few streams to reach action stage, but
this is a low probability at this time.

Behind the departing storm, colder and drier conditions (outside
of any lake effect snow) will move in for Thursday afternoon
through the weekend. This will allow rivers and streams to
recede. Colder weather will once again allow ice to rebuild on
areas rivers, lakes and ponds.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for
     NYZ054.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ032-033-042.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ032-033.
MA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for
     MAZ001.
VT...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for
     VTZ013.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for VTZ013-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/BGM
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Frugis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
517 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ038>041-043-047>053-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ015-271200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Eastern Windham-
517 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
the southern Berkshires of western Massachusetts, the Mohawk and
Schoharie Valleys, Capital Region, eastern Catskills, Helderbergs,
Glens Falls and Saratoga Regions, the central and southern Taconics
and mid Hudson Valley in eastern New York and eastern Windham County
in southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Rain may changeover to snow for some areas late tonight. A light
accumulation may make for locally slippery conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gusty westerly winds are expected Thursday into Friday. Some wind
gusts may exceed 35 mph, resulting in a few downed tree limbs.
Isolated power outages are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ001-NYZ054-271200-
Northern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-
517 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern Berkshires
of western Massachusetts and eastern Rensselaer County of eastern
New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

In addition, gusty westerly winds are expected Thursday into Friday.
Some wind gusts may exceed 35 mph, resulting in a few downed tree
limbs. Isolated power outages are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay wind damage reports to the
National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ032-033-271200-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
517 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Herkimer and Hamilton
Counties in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

Gusty westerly winds are expected Thursday into Friday. Some wind
gusts may exceed 35 mph, resulting in a few downed tree limbs.
Isolated power outages are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the
National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ042-VTZ014-271200-
Northern Warren-Western Windham-
517 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Warren County in east
central New York and western Windham County in southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Gusty westerly winds are expected Thursday into Friday. Some wind
gusts may exceed 35 mph, resulting in a few downed tree limbs.
Isolated power outages are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the
National Weather Service in Albany New York.

VTZ013-271200-
Bennington-
517 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Bennington County in southern
Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Gusty westerly winds are expected Thursday into Friday. Some wind
gusts may exceed 35 mph, resulting in a few downed tree limbs.
Isolated power outages are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts and
reports of wind damage to the National Weather Service in Albany New
York.