Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest this evening. The
boundary sags south overnight before stalling across southern
Virginia Wednesday. Several areas of low pressure will move
east along this boundary Thursday and Friday. The front lifts
back north as a warm over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Heat advsry continues thru 00Z with sern zones and ern shore area
alrdy aoa 105. Dew points have mixed out along the I-95 corridor
along with sct convection dvlpng to the west. Thus, this combo
will likely prevent the I-95 corridor from reaching 105.

Models show a weak s/w riding east just ahead of the apprchg cold
front this eve. SPC keeps the marginal svr risk across most of Va
except for the sern part. This mainly for damaging wind gusts in any
wet micro-bursts along the pre-frontal trof this eve.

The front is then progged to slowly sag south across northern Va
overnight. Thus, high chc PoPs (and any svr threat) will be kept
this eve with PoPs lingering across the sern two thirds of the fa
overnite due to some moisture pooling along the frontal bndry.
Remaining warm and humid with lows in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

The boundary sets up shop across srn VA Wed. Anthr weak s/w progged
to move east along it across sern VA Wed aftrn. This will be the
trigger for convection with highest PoPs (likely) across the south
quickly tapering off across the north. Cooler due to the clouds and
pcpn (although skies will likely turn out pt sunny across the
north). Highs 86-91.

Models show the systm exiting offshore Wed eve then a "lull" in any
significant trigger for convection until the next s/w apprchs from
the west Thurs. Thus, will carry eve PoPs Wed eve, tapering off
after midnite. Lows in the 70s.

A series of s/w trofs will ride eas along the stalled bndry Thu
aftrn thru Fri resulting in periodic shwrs/strms. Will carry high
chc PoPs starting Thu aftrn, chc PoPs Thu nite then ramp up to high
chc / low end likely Fri. Otw, pt to mstly cldy skies. Highs Thu upr
80s-lwr 90s, Lows Thu nite in the 70s. Highs Fri in the mid 80s.
Pcpn tapers off Fri nite as the systm pushes offshore. Lows in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

The bndry lifts back north as a warm front Sat as low pressure lifts
ene across the Ohio Valley. This low slowly tracks ene to our north
Sun and Mon with the trailing frontal bndry progged to move east of
the mts Mon nite/Tue time frame. Thus, models do show enuf moisture
across the area to cont PoPs each day, however, will key on mainly
diurnal timing for now.

Highs each day in the upr 80s-lwr 90s with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will start the forecast period with only SCT-BKN
CU over the next svrl hrs. A cold front will sag south across Va
tonite. Ahead of it, shwrs/tstrms will dvlp along the pre-frontal
trof. Timing will be after 22Z at RIC and SBY then after 00Z
across the se. Thus, have VCTS at RIC?SBY in the first 6 hrs
period but held off across the se for now. CIGS would likely
drop to MVFR in any tstrm, but VSBYS could easily drop to brief
IFR in lclly hvy downpours WSW winds arnd 10 kts this aftrn
shift to the NNW across the north behind the front. The bndry
will likely not make it any farther south than the VA-NC border.

Outlook:
Periodic flight restrictions will linger Tue night into early
Wed morning due to sct convection with the bndry. Addntl flight
restrictions through the end of the wek mainly for convection.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 135 PM EDT Tuesday...

Generally quiet marine conditions are expected to continue into the
late week period. A weakening cold front is still expected to dip
southward late tonight which will serve to briefly turn winds to the
WNW for the northern bay and northern coastal zones before SSW flow
returns by Wednesday afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft with waves in the bay of
1-2 ft. There is the potential for a sub-SCA northerly surge across
the waters Friday or Friday night with winds potentially becoming
ENE into Saturday with a second cold front passage. Seas expected to
remain 2-3 ft with waves in the bay of 1-2 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 150 AM EDT Tuesday...

Hot weather pattern will prevail through Tuesday. The 2nd half of
July into early August is climatologically the hottest period of the
year so records will not be easy to break (see below).

Richmond's top 3 longest 90+F degree streaks are as follows: 27
(1995), 19 (1993) and 18 (2020) - with a high of 97 Monday at
RIC, RIC now stands at 18 consecutive days of 90+F temperatures.
Second place will likely be tied later today.

* Record Highs:

* Site: Tues 7/28

* RIC: 102 (1952)
* ORF: 101 (1940)
* SBY: 100 (1949)
* ECG:  99 (1952)

* Record High Mins:

* Site	Tues 7/28

* RIC: 75 (2006)
* ORF: 81 (2016)
* SBY: 78 (1930)
* ECG: 79 (1980)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>025.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ064-075>090-
     092-093-095>100-511>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM/MAM
CLIMATE...AKQ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ064-075>090-092-093-095>100-
511>525-291930-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Caroline-Westmoreland-
Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, any thunderstorm this evening will be capable of
producing heavy downpours, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ048-060>062-065>069-509-510-291930-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-
Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Any thunderstorm this evening will be capable of producing heavy
downpours, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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