Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
331 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled across southeast
Virginia through this evening, then will move south and offshore
tonight. High pressure returns Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary is situated across SE VA
this afternoon from the lower VA Eastern Shore to roughly
Emporia. This boundary has been the focus for scattered showers
and tstms so far today and we expect this activity to continue
to migrate east and offshore through the early evening hours.
This in addition to shortwave energy arriving from the NW late
this afternoon, which should also serve to initiate widely sct
tstm over the Piedmont/I-95 corridor into the late evening
hours. SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk of svr storms
through this evening with the greatest threat being isold
damaging wind gusts. Any convection will slowly wane through
sunset, then any lingering activity will shift eastward and
offshore later this evening and tonight as the aforementioned
frontal boundary gets shoved offshore and we dry out. Will end
pops west of 95 by NLT midnight, slight chance pop along the
coast into early Fri morning. Lows tonight mainly in the 60s to
around 70, but a few upper 50s possible far NW zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

Dry/warm and less humid Fri with dewpoints mixing out to the
upper 50s to low 60s. Plentiful sunshine will boost highs into
the mid 80s to near 90F. A mid-level ridge axis traverses the
local area on Saturday, with H85 temps cresting over the area.
Under a mostly sunny sky, look for highs to reach the low to mid
90s inland, upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Humidity
levels will increase a bit as well.

A baggy trough of low pressure develops along the East Coast by
Sunday, with a cold front moving into the area late in the day.
This will serve to ignite some scattered shwr/tstm activity
during the afternoon/evening hours. Will advertise 30-50% PoPs.
High temps will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, but with dew pts
returning to the upper 60s to low 70s, making it feel a bit more
uncomfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

An upper low is progged to drop southward from Quebec to far nrn New
England from Sun night-early next week. Several spokes of
shortwave energy are progged to rotate around the upper low
during that time. At the surface, a weak cold front will cross
much of the area Sun night. However, as is typical at this time
of year, the previously referenced front will weaken as it
reaches the NC border on Monday and will probably stall across
eastern NC through the middle of next week. The overnight runs
of the GFS/ECMWF hinted at the possibility of weak low pressure
developing across ern NC along the stalled front. The latest 12z
model runs continue to suggest this possibility. Accordingly,
expect diurnally-driven thunderstorm chances each day from
Monday-Wednesday (30-50% PoPs). The highest chances of diurnally
driven tstms look to be across southern/western portions of the
forecast area. Typical summertime heat and increasing humidity
are anticipated for early next week with highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s (highest Monday). Lows mainly in the mid 60s to low
70s through the medium range period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact the
coastal TAF sites to start the 18z TAF period before shifting
east and offshore after 22z or so. Additional shwrs/tstms will
move in from the NW after 19z and may impact RIC thru about 22z
before sliding south through SE VA and NE NC through 02z.
Confidence not as high for pcpn reaching the southeast coastal
terminals this evening, so will carry nothing more than VCSH for
now. Clearing from west to east this evening, with the
potential for some stratus/patchy fog late tonight. Will include
potential in RIC for now, staring 08z, but will hold off at
other terminals given lower confidence attm.

Outlook: Dry conditions and VFR Friday through midday Sunday.
Widely scattered tstms possible late Sunday, mainly to the west
of the terminals. Mainly afternoon tstm chances each day
Monday-Wednesday of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

A weak cold front remains west of the waters this afternoon. Winds
are mainly out of the S at ~10 kt, but there has been some
variability in the winds as outflow boundaries have passed over
the bay/far nrn coastal waters. Seas are around 2 ft with ~1 ft
waves on the Ches Bay. Winds become west or WNW at 5-10 knots
behind the weak front late tonight into early Friday. Winds
become S at ~10 kt by Fri aftn. Winds veer to the SSW by
Saturday and remain that way through Sun AM. Am still expecting
sustained wind speeds to increase to 10-15 knots in the
bay/15-20 knots offshore by late Sat/Sat night. Winds turn to
the west and weaken during the day on Sunday. Seas generally
2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves on the bay through Sun. Could see a
brief period of 3-4 ft seas N late Sat-Sat night (when SSW winds
increase). A weak cold front crosses the waters Sun night-early
Mon, allowing winds to briefly turn to the NW then N. Wind
speeds are expected to remain below SCA thresholds w/ the FROPA.
Models continue to show the potential for weak low pressure to
develop across the Carolinas Tuesday or Wednesday but marine
conditions are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/JDM
AVIATION...JDM/MAM
MARINE...ERI/RHR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
350 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525-
262000-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-Northampton-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
350 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening. The
greatest threat will be localized damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-262000-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-
350 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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