Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will linger across the area through
Tuesday. A cold front approaches the region from the west
Wednesday and likely stall for a while Thursday before pushing
offshore Thursday night. High pressure returns for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Convection has rapidly developed on the leading edge (differential
heating bndry) of the sfc trof this aftrn. So far, pulse type
storms with hail of various sizes and gusty winds. Movement has
been quick enuf to advert any sgnfcnt flooding so far, however
flash is starting to light up across the south.

On-going convection along the sfc trof will continue into the
evening before dissipating by midnite. Greatest threat area for
merging cells appears to be along I95 east to the Ches Bay.
Local sea breezes may keep the amt of activity lower along the
coast. Otw, pt cldy and humid. Patchy fog psbl across the lwr Md
ern shore and in areas where it rained. Lows upr 60s-lwr 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Tues starts off dry with enuf sun for temps to quickly heat up. The
next s/w trof apprchs from the west after 18Z. Models show sct
convection quickly dvlpng along the Blue Ridge then moving ese thru
the aftrn/eve. Will carry chc PoPs west of the bay, slght chc along
the coast. Highest PoPs north/west of RIC where SPC now shows a
marginal risk for wet microbursts. Hot and humid with highs 90-95
before the storms hit, holding in the 80s at the beaches. Eve storms
dissipate Tues nite, Otw, pt cldy and humid. Lows upr 60s-mid 70s.

Another hot/humid day Wed with anthr trof progged ahead of a cold
front on Thurs. Models show the focus for diurnal convection will be
mainly across the srn half of the fa. Will keep slght chc PoPs
across the north and chc PoPs across the south. Otw, pt sunny. Highs
upr 80s-lwr 90s. Convection weakens/dissipates Wed eve. Otw, pt
cldy. Lows 65-70.

The cold front crosses the area Thurs with anthr round of shwrs and
tstms. Will keep chc PoPs in the grids for now, highest south. Otw,
pt sunny to mstly cldy and not as hot. Highs in the low-mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Models show the cold front moving off the coast Thurs nite with high
pressure building into the area over the weekend. Data then points
to more diurnal convection Sun/Mon as another trof sets up east of
the mts along with increasing humidity levels. Kept a dry forecast
Fri/Sat (with lower dew points) then have chc PoPs across the north
Sun and across most of the area Mon.

Highs Fri mid-upr 80s, then upr 80s-lwr 90s Sat/Sun/Mon. Lows Thurs
nite in the 60s, 65-70 Fri nite with 70-75 Sat/Sun nites.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions with SCT-BKN CU and AC deck this aftrn. Shwrs and
tstrms dvlpng along and east of I95 where lcl CIGS will drop to
MVFR with psbl IFR VSBYS in hvy rain. Gusty wind in excess of 30
kts psbl with any storm. Sea-breeze influence has shifted the winds
to the ESE along the coast this aftrn. Otw, S wind blo 10 kts.
Given current radar trends, have started off the forecast with
VCTS at RIC. Tried to time the thunder at sern TAF sites based
off the latest high res data.

Convection continues into the eve ivof the Ches Bay then weakens
and dissipates by midnite. Some ptchy fog psbl once again at SBY
tonight and where it ends up raining today.

Outlook...
Additional convection expected both Wed and Thurs ahead of an
apprchg cold front progged to push off the coast Thurs eve.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Southeast flow this afternoon has increased to 10 to 15 kt
across the lower Bay and coastal waters south of Cape Charles.
Winds were a little lighter over the middle and upper Bay.
Expect winds to persist this afternoon and evening near 15 kt at
times. Some strong gusty winds are possible this evening from
storm outflow as storms approach the rivers and Bay from the
west. Waves in the Bay/Sound/Rivers ~1-2 ft, seas generally 2 ft
(3 ft offshore) through this evening and tonight.

Similar conditions for Tuesday with surface ridging along the
coast from the Bermuda high as a low moves northeast across the
Ohio River Valley. This will result in continued south to
southwest winds ~15kt by Tuesday aftn. Waves in the bay will
persist closer to 2 ft with seas up to 3 ft on the ocean Tue-
Wed. A weak front tries to push into the area Wednesday, but
looks to stall and wash out resulting in showers and storms,
but no significant winds. Winds could briefly turn around to
the W-NW (< 15 kt) over northern waters, but quickly back to the
W-SW 10-15 kt later Thu and through next weekend. Expect
conditions will stay below SCA thresholds.

Looking ahead, do not anticipate any marine issues or headlines
as the bermuda high remains in control of the southeast US. The
Pressure gradient may tighten some for Saturday and Sunday
resulting in a southwest wind around 15 kt.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JAO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-065>067-076>090-092-093-
095>100-514-516-518-520-522>525-231915-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Eastern Henrico-Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-
Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening. Some of
these storms may be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and
large hail the primary threats. Heavy rain in slow moving storms may
also result in flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-075-509>513-515-517-519-521-231915-
Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-
Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex-
311 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia and north central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, with damaging
wind gusts and large hail the primary threats. Heavy rain in slow
moving storms may also result in flooding, especially in urban and
poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, with
damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary threats. Heavy rain in
slow moving storms may also result in flooding, especially in urban
and poor drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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