Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
412 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The upper low west of the area will drift back over the area
later tonight and into Saturday. High pressure becomes centered
off the southeast coast Sunday and Monday, bringing summerlike
warmth back to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across the area. Main
threat into early this evening will be heavy rainfall with the
training echos and slow storm motion. Could not rule out a severe
storm with some drying aloft leading to some stronger downdrafts.
This thunderstorm activity is mainly diurnal in nature and should
subside this evening. Will maintain the highest PoPs in the western
half of the forecast area but keep chance/slight chance PoPs over
the eastern 1/2 of the area overnight as the upper low moves east
and a few showers are forecast by the NAM and HRRR to move northward
into that region overnight. Lows generally in the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

One more active day on Saturday with the upper low over the area.
Will once again see an uptick of showers and storms mainly in the
afternoon and evening hours across the interior similar to today.
Will maintain likely PoPs in the interior again tomorrow afternoon
across the interior and chance PoPs close to the coast. The upper
low finally opens up Sat night and moves east Sunday into Monday.
Still, with cyclonic flow over the area Sunday cannot rule out a
shower/storm and will keep chance Pops in the afternoon/evening. Do
not expect nearly as much coverage on Sunday as today or tomorrow,
but there will be some scattered showers/storms in the area. By
Monday, the upper ridge finally starts to build across the area with
broad south-southwest low level flow around the Bermuda high. This
starts the more summertime pattern for next week with typical
afternoon/evening showers and storms focusing on the lee trough.

Highs will steadily warm from the low 80s Sat, low-mid 80s Sunday
and upper 80s to lower 90s Monday. Monday will be rather muggy as
well with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Summertime conditions expected next week as a mean ridge builds
across the eastern part of the country with an upper trough over the
upper midwest and great lakes. This will allow for W-SW upper flow
across the Middle Atlantic and above normal heights for much of the
week. Meanwhile at the surface a broad high will persist off the
coast with a lee side trough developing each day just east of the
mountains. With the summertime pattern in place, typical diurnal
afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day in the period. Best chances of storms will be inland but
everywhere will have chances for showers/storms. Might be a little
more organized convection Wednesday afternoon/evening as the
GFS suggests a weak front moving through the region but at this
time will not differentiate PoPs and plan on chance pops each
day next week. Tuesday and Wednesday high temperatures will
reach the low to mid 90s across the area with lows in the low to
mid 70s. Temperatures are expected to slightly cool Thursday and
Friday behind the front. High temperatures will be in the upper
80s to near 90, and lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions expected this afternoon, although brief MVFR
conditions expected with any thunderstorm this afternoon into early
this evening. Guidance suggests RIC/SBY/PHF will see IFR conditions
overnight but will keep to MVFR for now given that this is likely
conditional on rain falling at the sites. Additional shower/storms
expected on Saturday.

OUTLOOK...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday may
result in additional brief periods of degraded flight
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Friday...

Winds this afternoon are SSE 10-15 kt across area waters. Winds
maybe he higher near thunderstorms that are developing across
the region. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain
southerly 10-15 kt through the upcoming weekend, as sfc high
pressure remains anchored just offshore into the western
Atlantic. Waves in the Bay/sound/Rivers should remain 1-2 ft,
with choppy 2-3 ft seas expected to persist through the weekend.
Showers and T-Storms will be possible each aftn and early
evening, with the best chance coming this aftn and again on
Saturday).

Winds veer around to the S-SW and increase into early next week, as
sfc high slides farther offshore, as a weak trough develops over the
piedmont well inland Mon/Tue. This may nudge seas up to 3-4ft
Tue/Wed but expect conditions will stay well below SCA thresholds
attm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Flood warning remains in effect for the Meherrin River at
Lawrenceville. The river will crest this morning and is expected
to fall below flood stage by late tonight. A flood warning was
also issued for the James River at Westham. Expect the river to
crest just above flood stage tonight then fall below flood
stage on Saturday

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...CP/MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...CP/MAM
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
413 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

MDZ021>025-NCZ014>017-031-032-102-VAZ075>078-084>086-090-093-095>100-
520>525-202015-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-Gates-
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Chowan-Perquimans-
Eastern Currituck-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-
Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-James City-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-
Northampton-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-
Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
413 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this evening may produce locally heavy rain
and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. With saturated
soils from recent rainfall, any additional heavy rain may result in
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012-013-030-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>089-092-509>519-
202015-
Northampton-Hertford-Bertie-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-
Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-Southampton-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
413 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, north central Virginia,
south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening
may result in localized flooding. In addition, a storm or two may
become severe early this evening with gusty winds being the main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. With saturated
soils from recent rainfall, any additional heavy rain may result in
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
156 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

VAZ062-069-511-515-191845-
Goochland-Western Hanover-Western Henrico (Including the City of
Richmond)-Powhatan-
156 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
GOOCHLAND...NORTHWESTERN HENRICO...WEST CENTRAL HANOVER AND EAST
CENTRAL POWHATAN COUNTIES...

At 155 PM EDT, a thunderstorm with heavy rain was located over
Wyndham, or near Tuckahoe, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Randolph Macon College, Tuckahoe, Sabot, Manakin, Wyndham,
Johnsons Springs, Goodall, Elmont, Short Pump, Subletts, Rockville,
Gilman, Fine Creek Mills and Crozier.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3751 7774 3755 7786 3766 7778 3776 7770
      3786 7760 3775 7745 3763 7757
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 228DEG 23KT 3768 7765

Poche

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW SHORT PUMP         37.64N 77.62W
06/19/2020                   HENRICO            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF WATER ON ROADS IN SHORT PUMP.

&&

MRD