Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
337 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow with
scattered thunderstorms possible. A weak cold front will approach
from the northwest late tomorrow and will not fully cross the region
until early Saturday. High pressure settles into the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

Temperatures are primarily in the mid 90s over most of the CWA with
mid to upper 90s in the SE. The hot spot once again is Norfolk with
a temperature of 100F as of 3 PM.

Tstms have begun to form in the NW of the CWA (Fluvanna and Louisa)
ahead of the trough approaching from the W later this
afternoon/early evening. The expectation is for these storms to
eventually organized into a multicell line that moves E later this
afternoon/early evening. SW flow should keep the southern portion of
the line confined to the northernmost counties of the CWA with 50-
60% PoPs. PoPs quickly diminish S to around 30-50 % in RIC and <30%
SE of RIC. SPC has maintained slight risk for severe over the far N
of the CWA but the greatest svr threat is N of the CWA. Shear not
overly impressive (~20 kt) but with steep low level lapse rates and
high CAPE, could see isolated strong/severe storms similar to what
occurred last evening/earlier this morning. Convection may linger NW
into the overnight hours tonight. The slower (and less severe)
portion of the line lags behind and could make it into the W portion
of the CWA later this evening into early overnight. Mostly cloudy
tonight with clouds beginning to break near sunrise and lows mainly
in the low to mid 70s with upper 70s possible near the coast.

Tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today with highs in the mid
90s. However, with dews still in the low to mid 70s, heat indices of
100-105 W of I-95 and 105-109 E of I-95 (including the city of Ric)
will be possible. Have extended the Heat Advisory for areas E of I-
95 tomorrow to account for this. In association with lee troughing
and another shortwave trough approaching from the W, thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the mountains tomorrow afternoon and
move E into the CWA by late afternoon/early evening. Storm coverage
will be more widespread than today but with weak shear, widespread
svr weather is not expected. SPC has nearly the entire CWA in a
marginal risk for svr weather due to primarily isolated strong-to-
svr storms embedded within the main line. Storms should gradually
weaken as they move E overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Somewhat unsettled weather will continue into the first part of the
weekend as the surface boundary slowly moves through the area Thu
night into Friday before dissipating. This cold front will end the
hot conditions we've seen over the past week. However, there will be
continued chances for showers/storms right through Saturday given
the slightly lower heights aloft and the surface boundary helping to
initiate convection. Probably the best chance for showers/storms
will be Friday with the front nearby, but could not rule out showers
and storms on Saturday, especially southside VA and NE NC.

Temps will drop to near seasonable levels for this time of year with
highs in the lower 90s and lows in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday...

Heat ridge expands back E into the local area Sun through early
next week. Remnant sfc frontal boundary will be slow to
dissipate to end the weekend. By Sun into Mon...sfc hi pres
becomes situated E of the SE CONUS coast resulting in SW winds
and a return to the higher heat/humidity (while PoPs stay blo
20%). By Wed...the next cold front attempts to cross the
FA...still hot but w/ a bit higher PoPs.

Lows Sat night mainly 70-75F. Highs Sun in the u80s right at
the immediate coast to the l90s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night in
the l-m70s...u60s in the urban areas of SE VA. Highs Mon/Tue
mainly in the m-u90s. Highs in the u80s-l90s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Generally VFR for the next 24 hours. Could see brief reduction of
fight conditions at RIC and SBY late this afternoon into early this
evening in any thunderstorm, but expect this to be brief. Will also
need to watch for gusty winds from any storm. TSTM chances minimal
at ORF/PHF/ECG.

OUTLOOK...
A weak cold front late Thu-Fri could bring somewhat higher coverage
of storms. Sfc hi pres builds N of the local area Sat...however at
least ISOLD SHRAs/tstms will still be poss NC. Lower pcpn chances
are expected over the entire area Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...

No marine headlines expected through the weekend/Mon. ISOLD
convection poss this evening. Otw...SSW winds aob 15 kt w/ waves
on the bay 1-2 ft...seas 1-2 ft. Winds from Thu through Fri
will generally be S or SW aob 15 kt. Waves in the bay continue
to be 1-2 ft...w/ seas generally 1-3 ft...could see some 4 ft
seas closer to 20 nm offshore (mainly N of Cape Charles VA) for
a brief time Thu night. A front approaches the area from the
north Fri morning then is slow to dissipate INVOF the waters
through the weekend (allowing winds to stay mainly SSW). SCT
(mainly) afternoon/evening convection is possible through Sat.
Brief gusty winds are possible in any tstms (tonight into the
weekend)...and will be handled with SMWs/MWSs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Hot weather continues through Thursday.

* Summary of Records for the Heatwave:

* Norfolk:
* 2 record highs (102/Sun 19th, and 102/Tue 21st).
* 3 record high mins (tie 79/Sat 18th, 82/Mon 20th, tie 80/Tue
  21st).

	* Last time 3 consecutive days of 100F+ occurred at Norfolk was
    7/20-7/22/2019.

* Richmond:
* record high (tie 101/Sun 19th).
* record high min (tie 78/Mon 20th).

* Salisbury: (no records set).

* Elizabeth City:
* record high min (80/Mon 20th).

* Record Highs for today/Wed 7/22:

* Site

* RIC: 103 (1952)
* ORF: 102 (2011)
* SBY: 104 (1930)
* ECG: 104 (1952)

* Record High Mins for today/Wed 7/22:

* Site

* RIC: 79 (2011)
* ORF: 82 (2011)
* SBY: 80 (2011)
* ECG: 79 (2019)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     065>069-509-510.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ064-075>090-092-
     093-095>100-511>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...LKB/MRD
MARINE...ALB/ERI
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

VAZ060>062-065>069-231945-
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-
Amelia-Powhatan-
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ078>090-092-093-095>100-512>520-522>525-231945-
Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-
Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-
Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-Accomack-Northampton-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>024-VAZ064-075>077-511-521-231945-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Caroline-Westmoreland-
Richmond-Northumberland-Western Hanover-Western Essex-
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and north central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening with the main threat being from damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ048-509-510-231945-
Fluvanna-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening with the main threat being from damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-231945-
Maryland Beaches-
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heat indices from 100 to 104 degrees are expected late this morning
and afternoon. There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening with the main threat being from damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain
Thursday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-231945-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
440 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

VAZ064-075-519-521-222145-
Western King and Queen-Westmoreland-Western Essex-Caroline-
440 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAROLINE...
NORTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND AND NORTHWESTERN ESSEX COUNTIES...

At 439 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Fort A.p.
Hill, or near Bowling Green, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Colonial Beach, Bowling Green, Milford, Port Royal, Ladysmith,
Loretto, Leedstown, Fort A.p. Hill, Hustle, Potomac Beach, Elevon,
Supply, Penola, Cedon, Lerty, Rappahannock Academy, Sparta, Villboro,
Rollins Fork and Oak Grove.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3821 7695 3816 7684 3789 7718 3788 7721
      3791 7724 3788 7725 3803 7756 3824 7732
      3822 7728 3825 7727 3825 7723 3823 7725
      3819 7725 3820 7722 3817 7718 3815 7712
      3816 7709 3814 7707 3826 7705 3828 7698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 222DEG 21KT 3807 7726

GINGRICH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
459 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

VAZ048-060>062-064-066>069-509>513-515-517-222200-
Nottoway-Western Hanover-Western Henrico (Including the City of
Richmond)-Western Louisa-Caroline-Eastern
Louisa-Lunenburg-Goochland-Eastern Hanover-Western
Chesterfield-Western King
William-Powhatan-Fluvanna-Amelia-Cumberland-Prince Edward-
459 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOUISA...CUMBERLAND...
NOTTOWAY...GOOCHLAND...HANOVER...POWHATAN...WESTERN CHESTERFIELD...
PRINCE EDWARD...NORTH CENTRAL LUNENBURG...SOUTHWESTERN CAROLINE...
NORTHWESTERN HENRICO...NORTHWESTERN KING WILLIAM...AMELIA AND
FLUVANNA COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF RICHMOND...

At 458 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Bumpass to near Madisonville.
Movement was east northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Powhatan, Goochland, Cumberland, Farmville, Ashland,
Blackstone, Crewe, Louisa, Mineral, Palmyra, Fork Union, Mannboro,
University Of Richmond, Hampden Sydney College, Longwood University,
Hadensville, Randolph Macon College, Tuckahoe and Amelia Courthouse.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3739 7860 3740 7859 3736 7858 3734 7846
      3764 7825 3769 7824 3778 7848 3814 7806
      3799 7766 3801 7762 3785 7713 3760 7740
      3761 7741 3764 7742 3763 7743 3758 7742
      3702 7803 3711 7850 3720 7869
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 287DEG 41KT 3803 7773 3722 7866

GINGRICH