Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
245 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal trough will remain near the area through Thursday.
This will result in widespread clouds and numerous showers and
possible thunderstorms to continue across the region. A
boundary approaches the local area from the north Thursday night
and crosses part of the local area during the day on Friday.
That front stalls over the region for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...

Another unsettled/wet day on the way across most of the FA today.
Ridge aloft does extend from the wrn Atlantic WSW to the wrn
gulf states. However...there is a weakness in that ridge...basically
INVOF the mid-Atlantic region. Ongoing SHRAs/ISOLD tstms extend
from near the NC coast NNW through ern VA. That area is expected
to expand into the morning hours. Would not rule out localized
heavy rain just like that which occurred over parts of interior
SE VA early Wed morning. Sfc trough and an weak sfc lo pres will
be drifting inland/NW from near the coastal Carolinas through
today. A very prominent H85-H7 theta-E ridge axis sets up INVOF
the trough midday/this afternoon along-just E of I 95 w/ an
enhanced lo level SSE jet avgg 20-25 kt continuing to feed
moisture over that area. Expecting more convective development
today and thus ISOLD-SCT tstms by afternoon...mainly along-E of
I 95. Forecast PW's aoa 2" over much of the FA. Avg QPF 1-2"
(less far W and possibly right near the coast)...but localized
very heavy rain may lead to totals much higher (which would
increase flooding). The current Flash Flood Watch will remain as
is...though will be considering its expansion to the E (closer
to the coast)...esp over the lower MD ern shore. Mostly cloudy
today...except possibly partly sunny near the coast in SE VA-NE
NC. Highs in the u70s- l80s...m80s SE VA-NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Pcpn coverage diminishes again tonight...but ISOLD-SCT showers
will remain possible through the night. Lows ranging mainly from
70-75F. The strong cold front that is currently stretching from
the ern Great Lakes-srn Plains slowly crosses the local area
(from the NNW) Fri...but weakens some as it does so. Little or
no noticeable clearing/drying is expected with/behind the front.
PoPs Fri 30-40% N...60-80% central and S. Highest potential for
locally heavy rain Fri looks to over srn VA-NE NC. Highs in the
u70s-around 80F N to 80-85F SE.

Hi pres settles over New England Fri night before moving over
the Canadian Maritimes on Sat. That high will try to build into
the local area during this time while the front stalls across
far srn portions of the FA. However...still have PoPs of 20-30%
N/40-50% S on Sat (mainly SHRAs...perhaps ISOLD tstms S). Highs
Sat from the m-u70s N and central areas...l80s far SE VA-NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...

Unsettled weather continues for the end of the weekend with a
stationary front and weak low off the Mid Atlantic and SE coast and
a series of short waves advancing from the Great Lakes through the
northeast. A cold front crosses the area overnight Sunday into early
Monday, but with the final shortwave axis not expected to cross the
area until late Monday into early Tuesday, additional showers/storms
will be expected on Monday as well. Drier weather finally returns
for Tuesday and Wednesday as strong high pressure builds in from the
north. The warmest day will be Sunday with high temps ranging from
the lower 80s north and west, to mid and upper 80s over the
southeast. Low temps Sunday and Monday morning in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. A cooler trend behind the front and by Tuesday and
Wednesday expecting highs in the low to mid 70s inland to near 80
over the southeast. Low temps in the mid and upper 50s NW to mid and
upper 60s close to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Thursday...

VRB CIGs (IFR/MVFR) across most of the region through the 06Z/10
TAF forecast period. Coverage of pcpn has waned...but is
expected to ramp up by later this morning and continue through
this evening. VFR CIGs are poss...mainly across far SE VA-NE NC
later today. There is the potential of very heavy rain from
SHRAs...ISOLD-SCT tstms. ESE winds avg 10 kt or less. Widespread
SHRAs...and poss ISOLD afternoon/evening tstms are expected
again on Fri w/ potential fog/stratus Fri morning. BKN-OVC
clouds and high PoPs will remain for much of the upcoming
weekend/into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 405 PM EDT Wednesday...

A coastal trough will remain near the area through Thu. ENE
winds generally 10-15 kt with isolated gusts to near 20 kt were
occurring over the waters late this aftn. Waves were 1-3 ft, and
seas were 3-5 ft. Will maintain SCA's for the lower James River
(638), the lower Ches Bay (632-634), and the three srn coastal
zns until 10 PM this evening or 1 AM tonight.

Once the axis of the coastal trough moves inland late tonight
into Thu morning, the pressure gradient will weaken and winds
will become E then SE 5-10 kt from Thu morning into Thu night.

The center of a sfc high pressure will track along the
U.S./Canada border Fri into Sat. As the center of high pressure
tracks to the north of the region this weekend, NE then E winds
will increase to 15-25 kt across the waters. Seas will likely
build to 6-7 ft and waves 3-5 ft. SCA's will likely be needed
for most of our waters over the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1045 PM EDT Wednesday...

IsSued a Flood Warning for the Blackwater River near Zuni as
the gauge there continues rising and is expected to exceed minor
flood thresholds shortly. Have kept Franklin out of the warning
for now as the latest forecast keeps them below flood stage.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ064-075>090-092-
     093-096-511>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654-
     656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ERI
LONG TERM...ALB/CMF
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
433 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

VAZ064-075>090-092-093-096-511>525-102045-
Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
433 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-065>069-095-097-509-510-
102045-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-
Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
433 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers are expected through tonight. Locally
heavy rainfall from the showers could result in a few instances of
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day
through at least the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall from
the showers and storms could result in a few instances of flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-VAZ098-102045-
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
433 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Scattered to numerous showers are expected through tonight. Locally
heavy rainfall from the showers could result in a few instances of
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day
through at least the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall from
the showers and storms could result in a few instances of flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-102045-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
433 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Scattered to numerous showers are expected through tonight. Locally
heavy rainfall from the showers could result in a few instances of
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day
through at least the end of the week. Locally heavy rainfall from
the showers and storms could result in a few instances of flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.